The Spinoff’s hand-selected group of politics watchers share their most outlandish political prophecies for the coming year.

Toby Manhire (editor-at-large, The Spinoff)

We will drown in an alphabet soup of recovery, with economic commentators fizzing at the bit to demonstrate their knowledge of the geometric form of letters by declaring it to be variously a U-shaped, L-shaped, V-shaped or, especially, K-shaped recovery. Extra points if you spot an inverted-square-root-shaped recovery.

Mihingarangi Forbes (host, RNZ’s Mata; co-host, RNZ’s Saturday Morning)

Women will lead four of the six political parties in parliament.

Lyric Waiwiri-Smith (politics reporter, The Spinoff)

Andrew Geddis (law professor, University of Otago)

Not so wild maybe, but the AI bubble bursts and we plunge into another GFC that makes 2008 look like a mild correction – and throws everyone’s policy plans out the window.

Veronica Schmidt (editor, The Spinoff)

Masses of artists, writers, journalists, musicians, film makers, designers, publishers and record labels will lawyer up and take on the companies stealing their work to power AI.

Lara Greaves (associate politics professor, Victoria University of Wellington)

A new party enters parliament. We are due a new one: the last time this happened was 2011.

Alice Neville (deputy editor, The Spinoff)

Winston Peters realises he’s bone-tired. He decides he doesn’t have another election in him. Shane Jones ponders stepping up but decides that without his dear leader, he simply can’t carry on. They both retire from parliament. Andy Foster assumes the mantle of leader and gives NZ First a woke makeover, which captures the hearts and minds of the voters of Aotearoa New Zealand. NZ First records its best-ever election result.

Hayden Donnell (senior writer, The Spinoff)

Chris Luxon will still not agree to appear on Q&A, forcing Jack Tame to unleash two years of pent-up financial gotchas in the direction of a nearby egg before collapsing on the ground weeping. Butter prices will come down.

Annabelle Lee-Mather (producer, RNZ’s Mata; co-host, Gone by Lunchtime)

It’s not really a wild prediction but it seems inevitable we’ll see a new Māori political party before the next election.

Duncan Greive (founder, The Spinoff)

An external shock (AI bubble pop; AI popping employment; a non-phoney trade war) obliterates best-laid plans and becomes the main backdrop to the election.

Got a wild political prophecy for 2026? Share it in the comments below.