An older man in a striped suit speaks at a podium. A graphic of a conference pass with the text "The Spinoff Echo Chamber" is superimposed on a green background showing a layout of chambers and offices.
Winston Peters flubbed his lines in parliament on Wednesday.

PoliticsMarch 6, 2025

Echo Chamber: Is Winston losing his edge?

An older man in a striped suit speaks at a podium. A graphic of a conference pass with the text "The Spinoff Echo Chamber" is superimposed on a green background showing a layout of chambers and offices.
Winston Peters flubbed his lines in parliament on Wednesday.

The NZ First leader is one of parliament’s greatest quippers, but his hit rate lately has been well below his career average.

Echo Chamber is The Spinoff’s dispatch from the press gallery, recapping sessions in the House. Columns are written by politics reporter Lyric Waiwiri-Smith and Wellington editor Joel MacManus.

Question time on Wednesday opened as it often does, with opposition leader Chris Hipkins and leader of the house Chris Bishop arguing about an arcane point of the standing orders and speaker Gerry Brownlee mixing up their names.

Hipkins complained that National was using patsy questions to attack the opposition and insisted that Labour had been very good boys and girls after the speaker asked them not to yell so much. Brownlee said it was OK to reference previous governments, but agreed that some answers had crossed the line.

The great tōtara of the house, Winston Peters, made a point of order: “What happened to ‘Sticks and stones can break my bones, but names will never hurt me’? Brownlee replied dismissively, “With all due respect, that completely misses the point I was making.”

The leaders of the two minor coalition parties, David Seymour and Winston Peters, like to use tactical points of order to disrupt the opposition’s lines of questioning or land a biting one-liner. Seymour is particularly good at bailing out his allies when they’re in trouble – especially prime minister Chris Luxon.

Early into the debate, Greens co-leader Marama Davidson sent Luxon into a spiral of what-I’d-say-to-yous over school lunches, while Labour’s Rachel Brooking and Deborah Russell mimicked the prime minister’s finger-wags back to him. He tried to spin his “go make a Marmite sandwich” gaffe by claiming Labour and the Greens were vilifying working parents who give their kids Marmite sandwiches for lunch. Seymour came to his rescue by asking whether the prime minister was aware that Labour’s last budget only funded school lunches through 2025. Luxon took the hint and pivoted into a stump speech.

Peters has a less subtle style than Seymour. He barely tries to pose his statements as questions (“Prime Minister, will you explain to Mr Hipkins…”) and is usually more concerned with landing a witty one-liner than winning the debate. Lately, though, his strike rate on these jokes has fallen well below his career average.

Green MP Kahurangi Carter questioned children’s minister Karen Chhour about reports of overworked social workers when Peters jumped in: “In line with MP Kahurangi Carter’s recent select committee request, if she offers the issue a hug, will it go away?” You could almost hear the cicadas chirping outside. “Yeah, that’s not something that the minister has direct responsibility for,” Brownlee replied.

It was a niche joke that relied on the audience knowing that Carter sarcastically offered a Hobson’s Pledge trustee a hug during select committee hearings for the Treaty principles bill. It also wasn’t particularly well-timed, appropriate or relevant to the topic.

In the echelon of parliamentary quippers, Peters is up there with the best. But like a great athlete in the twilight of their career, he’s not quite what he once was. There are flashes of vintage Winston, but they’re inconsistent. New Zealand First’s coalition partners, who rely on his support, have become accustomed to smiling and nodding through every slurred punchline and questionable statement of fact.

Since being appointed minister for rail in December, Peters has thrown around some bold predictions for the costs of the new Interislander ferries. On Tuesday, he told Newstalk ZB the reported $300 million break fee for cancelling the previous ferry contract was actually “way less than $300 million”. When Barbara Edmonds asked Nicola Willis about this, she replied diplomatically: “I find it is wise to agree with the minister for rail.”

Peters asked whether Willis was confident that the new ferries and port infrastructure would be at least $2 billion cheaper than the previous iReX project. It was intended as a softball so Willis could attack the previous government’s spending, but instead, she had to carefully avoid making a claim that could come back to bite her. “Well, I’m delighted to hear that the minister for rail has these matters in hand,” she said. Edmonds, keen to pin the government to a commitment on the price, asked again whether Willis could confirm Peters’ prediction of a $2 billion saving. “As I’ve just said, I find it’s always wise to agree with the minister for rail,” she replied.

One fun moment

Chris Hipkins and Chris Luxon were in a back-and-forth about school lunches and tax breaks for landlords when backbench National MP Nancy Lu made a rare point of order.

Nancy Lu: “Point of order, Mr Speaker. I think the mic for the prime minister is actually not on, so most of the MPs sitting here cannot hear him at all.”

Speaker Brownlee: “Well, some people might thank the lord for small mercies, but I will ask the technicians to have a look at what’s going on.”

‘Hutt Valley, Kāpiti, down to the south coast. Our Wellington coverage is powered by members.’
Joel MacManus
— Wellington editor
Keep going!
Edmund Hillary and Kate Sheppard gaze out the Reserve Bank building windows. Photographer: Mark Coote/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Edmund Hillary and Kate Sheppard gaze out the Reserve Bank building windows. Photographer: Mark Coote/Bloomberg via Getty Images

OPINIONPoliticsMarch 6, 2025

Bernard Hickey: After Orr’s shock exit, these are the stakes for the NZ economy 

Edmund Hillary and Kate Sheppard gaze out the Reserve Bank building windows. Photographer: Mark Coote/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Edmund Hillary and Kate Sheppard gaze out the Reserve Bank building windows. Photographer: Mark Coote/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Could the next Reserve Bank governor unleash a new mortgage war?

This article was first published in Bernard Hickey’s newsletter The Kākā.

Adrian Orr appeared to surprise everyone early yesterday afternoon by announcing his immediate resignation as Reserve Bank governor, just two years into his second five-year term. The still unexplained reason for the departure has added to the mystery and shock, although the financial market reaction was much more muted. 

In any other country where a decidedly independent central bank governor who was often at odds with his finance minister resigned without reason, there would have been market chaos. Perhaps the institutional and constitutional buffers between and around the bank and government were enough to reassure traders and investors, or perhaps the current weakness of the US dollar in the wake of Donald Trump’s latest tariff shocks was enough to calm the farm. 

Orr didn’t include a reason for his resignation in his statement. Willis said she wouldn’t say, and left it to RBNZ chair Neil Quigley to give more detail in a hastily arranged and unusual 5pm news conference. Quigley, in turn, was also frustratingly non-specific about the reason, or reasons, other than to say Orr felt “it was time”. 

Adrian Orr in governor mode (Photo: Getty Images)

Quigley did suggest there had been tension between the bank and the government in recent weeks over its 2025 budget round funding proposal, which others have reported was for an increase at odds with the government’s expectations. But the chair didn’t confirm suggestions that either the latest funding debates were the trigger or some sort of straw that broke the camel’s back, or there had been some sort of performance or behaviour dispute. 

Whatever the case, Orr is now gone and using up his leave before the formal end of his employment. His deputy, Christian Hawkesby, is now the acting governor until March 31, from when the government will have up to nine months to appoint a permanent replacement for the next five years. 

Orr under fire

The public became aware of the current government’s antipathy to Orr in late 2022 when then opposition finance spokesperson Nicola Willis wrote a letter to then finance minister Grant Robertson to protest at the reappointment of Orr to a second five-year term without consulting with the opposition in the leadup to the 2023 election. ACT leader David Seymour had been even more critical of Orr’s operation of monetary policy and bank regulation.

But unhappiness had been swirling around the banking system well before the Reserve Bank’s actions during Covid. Orr led a dramatic increase in capital requirements for the banks from 2018 to 2020, arguing they should have enough to cope with a one-in-200 year financial crisis, rather than the global standard of one-in-100 years. The banks pushed back hard, saying it would force them to hold more of their own expensive capital in reserve in a way that increased costs for customers, and would make it harder for new entrants to compete.

The banks were also less-than enthused about the central bank’s proposals, now enacted from July 1 last year, for limits on debt-to-income multiples (DTIs). They were designed to act as a guardrail to limit future lending to rental property investors as interest rates fell. Mortgage brokers now report the DTI limits are kicking in and frustrating rental property investors wanting to buy more properties. 

The economy’s very slow recovery from its per-capita recession through 2023 and 2024 under the weight of high mortgage rates is becoming equally frustrating for the government. What it needs now is the usual surge of mortgage lending to fire up the economy through the wealth effect and cash surges from a jump in house sales volumes and prices, but the DTIs are frustrating that, as is a lack of competitive tension between the banks.

‘Show us the competition’

Willis also wants more competition in banking to force banks to pass on more of the benefits of lower interest rates to mortgage borrowers and businesses. She and others have argued the Reserve Bank’s increased regulatory and capital requirement zeal has thrown a blanket over those competitive urges.

A replacement for Orr who loosens the capital requirements and lowers the DTI limits would create the conditions for another 2003-to-2007-style mortgage lending boom, fueled by the BNZ’s “Unbeatable” campaign to “beat” any competitor’s two-year fixed mortgage rate. There was also a fresh surge of competition through 2011 and 2012 as ANZ under then-CEO David Hisco fought to increase ANZ’s market share in Auckland as it ramped up for the merger of its ANZ and National brands.

It was only the introduction of loan-to-value ratio (LVR) controls in 2013 by then governor Graeme Wheeler that put a dampener on the housing market again, before ever-lower interest rates in the lead-up to Covid helped accelerate things again. Orr’s Covid-era decisions to print money to lower longer-term interest rates, to lend very cheaply to banks so they could in turn lend cheaply to home buyers, and to remove the LVR controls in 2020 lit the blue touch paper on the housing market and the economy through late 2020 and 2021.

The blue touch paper is ready again. It just needs a new governor with the “right” approach to getting our housing-market-with-bits-tacked-on economy “back on track”.

The only question is how fast the match can be struck.


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