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ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says most New Zealanders will see a forecasted drop in house prices as a relief (Getty Images)
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says most New Zealanders will see a forecasted drop in house prices as a relief (Getty Images)

The BulletinDecember 1, 2022

House prices are falling – isn’t that what we want?

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says most New Zealanders will see a forecasted drop in house prices as a relief (Getty Images)
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says most New Zealanders will see a forecasted drop in house prices as a relief (Getty Images)

A year ago, the overpriced housing market was the number one concern for New Zealanders. Now, it’s “doom and gloom” as prices fall. One economist says falling prices should be a relief, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday morning, sign up here.

 

The difference a year makes

Congratulations everyone, we’ve made it to the last month of the year. And what a difference a year makes. An Ipsos poll had the price of housing at the top of the list of things most concerning us in October last year. The national average house price climbed over the million dollar mark in November 2021. Building consents hit record highs in September that year. According to Stats NZ figures released yesterday, October 2022’s residential housing consent numbers were the lowest they’ve been this year, (apart from quiet January). New figures out from Corelogic this morning have the national average house price at $958,622 for November 2022.

Forecast drop in prices “a relief” – economist

As a new-ish homeowner who plans to never move again, I still have enough muscle memory to recall how hopeless it felt last year. Taking into account the general rule about the correlation between house prices and how wealthy we feel, rising interest rates and broader talk of a recession, the prolific doom and gloom headlines about falling house prices can still feel a bit odd to me. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said something yesterday that I feel like we haven’t heard much off and that’s that most New Zealanders will see a forecasted drop in house prices as a relief. The bank’s wage adjusted forecast house price drop of 32% would bring us to 10% below pre-pandemic levels.

The generational wealth gap

New research out today from economist Shamubeel Eaqub continues to point to a big generational wealth gap. A child born in 2000, will earn on average $50k less over their lifetime than someone born 30 years earlier. “We told ourselves that increasing house prices was a good thing and just let it happen without building enough houses. We chose to massively underinvest in social housing so that people that become poor become homeless. We made our children poorer,” says Eaqub​. Even as prices fall, debt-servicing costs rise. Saving for a home deposit is 19% harder than it was five years ago but is improving according to a new online tool released last week by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development.

Mixed bag for renters, those needing social housing and iwi

Homeowners aren’t the whole of the picture when we discuss housing in New Zealand and it’s a mixed bag at the moment for renters, those on the public housing waiting list and iwi wanting to develop housing on ancestral land. Rents rose by 4.1% nationwide in the year to October but there are signs growth in rent prices is easing. The number of people on social housing waiting lists has fallen by just under 7% in six months. And here’s a good news story to end from Stuff’s Te Aorewa Rolleston. Matamata-Piako District Council is proposing to make changes to its district plan to enable papakāinga to be developed in the area more freely.

Keep going!
Lifting the retirement age would disadvantage women, Māori and Pacific peoples according to a new review from the Retirement Commission (Image: Getty)
Lifting the retirement age would disadvantage women, Māori and Pacific peoples according to a new review from the Retirement Commission (Image: Getty)

The BulletinNovember 30, 2022

The cost of living (and dying) as New Zealand ages up

Lifting the retirement age would disadvantage women, Māori and Pacific peoples according to a new review from the Retirement Commission (Image: Getty)
Lifting the retirement age would disadvantage women, Māori and Pacific peoples according to a new review from the Retirement Commission (Image: Getty)

We’re currently preoccupied with the present day cost of living but a series of new reports from the Retirement Commission bring the future into much closer view, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday morning, sign up here.

 

40% of retirees paying rent by 2048

Last week I recommended Charlie Mitchell’s excellent feature on New Zealand, the hyperaging nation (here if you missed it). I said I think we constantly kick this can down the road far too often. New reports released from the Retirement Commission this week paint a future of vast inequity and a doubling of the number of renting retirees. Bernard Hickey breaks down the commission’s forecasts of the rates of homeownership in retirement and assesses the future fitness of a superannuation scheme designed at a time when 87% of people in their 60s were homeowners with their mortgages paid off. The balance of home ownership is expected to shift to 60% homeowners and 40% paying rent by 2048, according to the commission.

Māori, Pasifika, and women have disproportionately lower savings

The focus of this latest review from the commission was Māori, Pasifika and women because they have disproportionately lower savings.  Retirement Commissioner Jane Wrightson confirmed that women, on average, have 20% less in their Kiwisaver than men “at all age groups, from the under-17s through to the people that are over 65”. In a beautifully recounted story by Stuff’s Ripu Bhatia, kaumātua Hemi Pene talks about saving for his own funeral because he worries about burdening his family. He is doing so out of his superannuation payments and what remains of his Kiwisaver. Pene, a former te reo Māori teacher at schools around Tāmaki Makaurau, is spending his retirement sharing his cultural knowledge with the community. “I like to get out there and do things for people,” he said.

National stands by policy of lifting retirement age to 67

I covered the recommendation from the commission that the retirement age remain at 65 yesterday, based on the disadvantage women, Māori and Pacific peoples would find themselves at if it was increased. Opposition leader Christopher Luxon is standing by the National party’s policy of lifting the superannuation age to 67 despite the findings. The report found that while Māori and Pacific peoples are expected to become a larger proportion of the working-age population over the next two decades, they will remain a “small proportion” of those who eventually get superannuation due to shorter life expectancies.

Taranaki man stages protest about cost of death

As the cost of living rises, so too does the cost of death. The costs of burial plots across 17 local authorities has gone up by 9% in two years. Caskets are not immune from inflation. Last Thursday, Taranaki man Dave Devenport sat outside the New Plymouth Public Trust office with a portrait of a woman, and a skeleton in a wheelchair. The woman in the photo is his wife who died in 2018 and Devenport was there staging a protest about the cost of death. According to Devenport, the cost to wind up his wife’s estate with the Public Trust office was $9,500, which he thinks is outrageous. It’s an odd subject matter to be commending Devenport, reporter Elijah Hill and photographer Andy MacDonald on, but it’s a pretty striking way to illustrate a point.