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The BulletinDecember 3, 2024

A bird flu wake up call

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(Getty Images)

New Zealand has recorded its first case of highly pathogenic bird flu at an Otago chicken farm, explains Stewart Sowman-Lund for The Bulletin.

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Bird flu detected at Otago farm

New Zealand has recorded its first case of highly pathogenic bird flu, with 80,000 chickens on an Otago farm now set to be culled in efforts to try and stop the spread. As the Otago Daily Times reported, the virus was detected at a commercial egg farm near Moeraki and is believed to have been picked up through interactions with local waterfowl and wild birds. RNZ reports this morning that the virus has spread to a second shed at the farm, doubling the number of chickens that will need to be killed. Crucially, the strain identified on the farm is a high pathogenic H7N6 subtype of avian influenza and not the H5N1 type circulating among wildlife elsewhere in the world, meaning transmission to mammals is “unlikely”, according to Biosecurity NZ’s Stuart Anderson. Nevertheless, officials are taking the presence of the virus seriously with a a 10-kilometre “buffer zone” around the farm and restrictions on the movement of animals, equipment, and feed.

As Reuters reported, we’ve suspended all poultry exports until a point at which it’s believed the strain has been eradicated – at least 21 days. “Until we’ve cleaned up the situation on this farm, and assuming no other issues pop anywhere else, then we will be able to export again,” primary industries minister Andrew Hoggard told RNZ.

Humans not at risk

In an interview with RNZ’s Lisa Owen, virologist Jemma Geoghegan said that the H7N6 subtype can be found in many different wild birds and often doesn’t cause disease – meaning it is low pathogenic. However, when it jumps across to chickens, “it can be highly pathogenic which means they have disease and they can die quite rapidly. It can also spread quite quickly between chickens,” she said. But humans are not at risk from this variant of the flu and it will be safe to continue eating chicken and eggs, so long as proper cooking methods are followed. Andrew Hoggard urged people not to “go out and stockpile eggs”.

In comments to the Science Media Centre, public health expert Nigel French said there was a good chance this outbreak could be contained since the affected farm was found early. However, “vigilance and raised awareness for avian influenza is needed, whether it is for the globally circulating H5N1 strain, or locally evolved strain”.

The bigger picture

This outbreak is clearly cause for concern, but it’s not the strain of avian flu that has had officials here on high alert. So far, New Zealand has evaded the H5N1 subtype of bird flu. That’s despite it spreading from birds to mammals, as explained here by The Conversation, though the risk to humans is considered low. Just a week ago, a child in California became the first American minor reported with a case of bird flu – with 55 infections in humans recorded across the United States this year.

Should it make it into New Zealand, there is concern about the devastation it could cause to our native wildlife, as Virginia Fallon looked at in an excellent feature for the Sunday Star-Times over the weekend. “If the virus gets into our taonga, our treasured wildlife in our captive breeding flocks it would be ruinous,” said Kent Deitemeyer, co-founder of Pacificvet. “We have 245 kākāpō, 300 takahē, and that’s it. It’s taken years and years to bring the numbers up; we cannot lose them.”

The vaccine race

It’s understandable that any mention of a potentially dangerous virus will bring back Covid-19 flashbacks. And much like then, the race is on to get our native bird population vaccinated and ready for the probable arrival of H5N1. As RNZ reported in August, the flu has even made it to Antarctica – probably through the arrival of migratory birds – meaning it is almost inevitable it will eventually make it to our shores. As Michelle Duff wrote for The Guardian, New Zealand is currently in the second phase of a vaccination trial on native birds and early results are highly positive. A small group of birds from five critically endangered species – the takahē, kākāpō, tūturuatu, kakī and one type of kākāriki – were given two doses of the vaccine a month apart, starting in late January.

But some, like Kent Deitemeyer and Jemma Geoghegan, are worried the rollout is too slow – yup, another Covid flashback there. “For the species that will be vaccinated, obviously, it’s a great thing, but use of wider vaccination, not just in wildlife, but in poultry and other animals would help us prepare,” Geoghegan told the Sunday Star-Times.

The current outbreak is a timely reminder that New Zealand isn’t immune and the consequences of a more deadly spread could be devastating. This time it’s chickens, but next time it could be our native birds.

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The BulletinDecember 2, 2024

What’s in and what’s out for Labour’s 2026 campaign

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The battle for the next election starts now, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund for The Bulletin.

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We’re still about two years out from the next election, but the Labour Party has kicked its plan to boot National out after a single term into gear. The party held its annual conference in Christchurch over the weekend, laying out some key priorities and promises should it make it into government come 2026. As the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan reported, leader Chris Hipkins promised to build the new Dunedin hospital at the level it had been promised prior to the 2023 election, before the coalition scaled back the project and prompted major protests in the South Island. While the coalition has copped a lot of fire over its decision to commit to a smaller rebuild, some will remember that Labour promised back in 2017 under Jacinda Ardern to start work on a new hospital in its first term.

It was also announced yesterday that a Hipkins government would reintroduce the Smokefree Aoteaora policy and invest in a publicly owned interisland ferry service with some rail capability, while MP Kieran McAnulty was confirmed to chair the 2026 campaign for Labour. And, perhaps most interestingly, Hipkins said that under a Labour government, New Zealand would not join the Aukus security alliance – and would be withdrawn from it should the coalition get us in there first.

The implications of the Aukus call

For those who are understandably still a bit confused by Aukus, The Spinoff’s Joel MacManus wrote a helpful explainer back in May. In short, it’s a military partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. But since its first pillar focuses on nuclear-powered submarines, and we have a well known anti-nuclear stance, there hasn’t been any need for us to be involved. Pillar two, however, is focused on things like cybersecurity and information sharing, so there’s a valid reason New Zealand might be keen to sign up.

Hipkins’ decision to take a strong stance should he become the next prime minister will present challenges for the current government. As Dan Brunskill at Interest noted, governments tend to seek bipartisan support for foreign and defence policies, meaning the coalition would have to go out alone should it be invited to join Aukus. Nevertheless, progress on this could still be a while off – New Zealand hasn’t actually received an invite to join pillar two of the pact, though early conversations have started. Labour has spent much of its time in opposition criticising the government for cozying up to the United States through its exploration of Aukus, while the government has said it’s only continuing work that was started under Labour. Former political enemies Don Brash and Helen Clark are among the critics that have warned the government about its shift in foreign policy.

And, in an interview with RNZ’s Guyon Espiner last week, China’s ambassador to New Zealand Wang Xiaolong warned that were we to join Aukus, it would have negative consequences for our critical relationship with China. “We hope that when weighing up this all-important decision, New Zealand will take into account its own long-term best interests, the potential implications for regional security, and the impact on the relationship between China and New Zealand,” he said.

Tax debate, but no tax policy

Of course, it wouldn’t be a Labour conference without a tax debate – especially given the party has already made some rather costly promises. Labour has started sowing the seeds for another shot at implementing some form of capital gains or wealth tax, reported Maiki Sherman for 1News. There’s still no policy ready to be put forward publicly, however, though party members backed a proposal to move forward with work on a new tax, meaning it’s likely one will end up front and centre of the election campaign.

If you’re getting a strong sense of déjà vu, you’d be right. Labour has a strong “will they, won’t they” relationship when it comes to campaigning on tax reform – though Hipkins has made it clear he intends to listen to his party this time around and return to “traditional” party values. Writing for The Sunday Star-Times, commentator Vernon Small questioned whether Labour will be able to win a debate it has lost on several previous occasions, noting that deciding whether to run with a capital gains or wealth tax is only part of the debate. For example, there’s the question of whether Labour will choose to revisit the “tax switch” idea – one that would mean using revenue raised from any new taxes to cut taxes elsewhere – or else try to win over wary voters with the possibility of paying more without an instant reward. Politik’s Richard Harman noted (paywalled) the internal division within Labour’s wider membership over what tax policy to pursue, and criticism from some that Hipkins was responsible for dumping the policy in the run up to last year’s election.

Polling boosts Labour’s confidence

Meanwhile, Labour will be feeling buoyed by internal polling that shows the race could already be tightening up. As reported by Stuff’s Bridie Witton, the latest Talbot Mills poll, provided to Labour on a weekly basis, has the party one point ahead of National – 32% to 31%. Hipkins is also a nose ahead of Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister. Of course, this is just one poll and of just a 700-strong sample – for Labour to really feel confident, it would need to see this same result replicated in a major survey and, so far, these numbers are an outlier (a recent Curia poll had National seven points up on Labour, while an October 1News Verian poll showed an eight point gap).

Two years out from the next election, let the games begin.