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The BulletinJune 14, 2024

The parallels between 1984 and today

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It’s four decades since Robert Muldoon’s infamous decision to call a snap election, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

Four decades since the ‘schnapps’ election

Today marks 40 years since a visibly drunk Robert Muldoon called a snap election. It was a decision that, as The Spinoff’s new podcast Juggernaut examines in great detail, led to serious and enduring change in New Zealand. Given it’s the anniversary, I went back and read Newstalk ZB journalist Barry Soper’s account of what happened on June 14, 1984 – and it’s compelling. “Never before or since has a politician appeared in front of the television cameras in such a drunken state,” wrote Soper, who was there on the night. You only need to type the words “Robert Muldoon” into Papers Past to be presented with an array of reports from the night itself, like this from The Press. Considering the consequences the election triggered, they’re all quite soberly reported. I’ll leave an examination of the change that followed to Toby Manhire over the next six weeks of Juggernaut, but given it’s the anniversary of one of the most iconic moments in our political history, let’s look at some of the similarities between 1984 and 2024.

‘We’re in as much trouble today as we were in 1984’

That’s according to former Labour finance spokesperson, and later Act Party co-founder, Roger Douglas. As Manhire describes it to me, Roger Douglas just won’t quit. “When he came into The Spinoff to talk about the fourth Labour government and his role in those tumultuous years for our new podcast Juggernaut, he was just as keen to get stuck into the here and now.” As you can read on The Spinoff this morning, Douglas reckons things are as dire now as they were in 1984 and demand another radical response.

According to Douglas, the parallels are clear. In 1984, Douglas and the new Labour government inherited an economy in crisis. The coalition government of 2023 has made similar comments. In late 2023, Willis said the government books laid bare “the extent of Labour’s economic and fiscal vandalism”. Douglas told Manhire: “We’re in as much trouble today as we were in 1984.” Douglas has urged radical action to address today’s crises, something Willis has erred away from. “We don’t want to be radical,” she told Mike Hosking ahead of budget day.

In 2023, Douglas penned an open letter, first reported by BusinessDesk, that questioned why the party he co-founded was not responding more aggressively to the current challenges. In response, David Seymour told The Spinoff he acknowledged Act was not as “radical” as Douglas may have wanted.

The ‘strands’ that link two eras

Manhire tells me there are other “strands” that connect the fourth Labour government and today. “Whether it’s a specific (such as the drafting of Treaty principles) or a theme (eg prime ministers finding life more agreeable abroad than at home) there are links all over the show,” he says. “And of course the biggie, the perennial: the question over just how active a role the state should have in our lives.” In 1989, the fourth Labour government became the first to set out principles to guide its actions on matters relating to the Treaty of Waitangi, as Te Ara explains here. It remains a hot button topic, thanks to an Act proposal inked into the coalition agreement with National to redefine the principles and set them in stone via legislation. Victoria University’s Luke Fitzmaurice-Brown looked back at the history of the principles in this Newsroom piece earlier in the year, but in recent weeks we’ve taken a step forward to that bill becoming a reality (though National has ruled out taking it beyond first reading). In May, 1News’ Te Aniwa Hurihanganui reported that the coalition had started the process of reviewing at least 40 pieces of legislation that included Treaty principles clauses, something that was agreed between National and New Zealand First.

The other parallel? The snap election itself

One other connection between the two eras is further afield: the idea of a snap election. In France, Emmanuel Macron recently announced that following a poor result in the European Union elections, he would be putting his leadership on the line earlier than anticipated. As The Guardian explained, Macron described his decision to go to a vote as an “act of confidence”, believing that the French people would “make the best choice for themselves and for future generations”. The Spinoff’s Catherine McGregor went into more depth in this week’s edition of The World Bulletin (which you can access as a Spinoff Member), explaining that the president is wanting to test France’s “readiness” for the far right, or prove that the recent election result was simply a “letting-off of steam”.

While certainly emboldened by alcohol, Muldoon similarly called the 1984 election to try to prove he had a mandate and to dispel criticism over the state of the economy. But as BusinessDesk’s Pattrick Smellie wrote last year, when there were murmurings of Chris Hipkins calling a snap election, voters tend not to think kindly of an unexpected trip to the polls. The rest is history. Though less a “snap” election and more a slightly unexpected one, it’s just three weeks until the UK heads out to vote. The latest debate between prime ministerial contenders Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak took place yesterday, and I highly recommend this report from The Guardian’s Marina Hyde on what unfolded.

Listen to Juggernaut: The Story of the Fourth Labour Government here.

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The BulletinJune 13, 2024

‘Brain drain’ déjà vu as New Zealanders leave the country in record numbers

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Over 81,000 New Zealand citizens left the country in the year to April – a 41% increase on the previous year. Stewart Sowman-Lund looks at why, in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

Leaving home

Back in 2020, The Spinoff produced a six-part podcast series called Coming Home. It was focused on the influx of New Zealanders returning to Aotearoa during the Covid-19 pandemic, and it had a pretty optimistic tone. It’s still worth a listen if you missed it, but that podcast could not be made today. Because new figures from Stats NZ show people are leaving the country in record numbers. Eva Corlett at The Guardian has the key details, reporting that the 130,600 migrant departures was the highest on record for an annual period (though net migration showed a gain of 98,500, up from 85,800 a year ago). However, of those leaving the country long term, about 81,200 were New Zealand citizens – a 41% increase on the previous year. “With 24,800 New Zealand citizens arriving during the period, that put the net migration loss of citizens at 56,500 – exceeding the previous record of 44,400 in 2012,” Corlett wrote.

What reasons are there for the drop in migration?

These latest numbers aren’t a particular surprise, given there has been an ongoing trend with migration data in the aftermath of the pandemic. Last month, Q+A’s Jack Tame analysed the May data that showed more than a thousand New Zealanders were leaving the country every week. The headline on Tame’s piece was fairly provocative, asking “who could blame” people for deciding to leave. But he posits a number of reasons for the rise in international migration. The job market, for one, with rising unemployment. Then there’s the high cost of living here, specifically for those renting. “This renting generation, coincidentally, is the same generation most likely to have left New Zealand,” wrote Tame. In late April, rents were recorded at an all-time high, according to TradeMe. Conversely, house prices have “plummeted”, according to Newshub – though let’s remember Hayden Donnell’s view on reports like that. Economist Brad Olsen told The Guardian a number of younger people will be leaving the country for an overseas experience, but some will have been lured abroad with the promise of better housing and job prospects. Enter, the “brain drain”.

We’ve been here before

While you will probably picture the early 2000s when you think of the brain drain, a quick search through Papers Past reveals it’s been a concern on many prior occasions. In 1969, for example, The Press reported that “3,863 professional and skilled workers left New Zealand for more rewarding opportunities overseas” while “2,000 immigrants helped offset this brain drain”. Prime minister Christopher Luxon was quick to remind people yesterday that we’ve been here before. “You’ll remember in the early 2000s there was a massive exodus of New Zealanders to Australia, and other parts of the world,” Christopher Luxon told reporters at Fieldays. “Our job is to build a long-term proposition where New Zealanders actually choose to stay in this country.” As this Stuff report from 2011 illustrates, the political response at that time was similar. Former finance minister Bill English said: “We know roughly what the recipe is, policies that support businesses that want to employ and create opportunities, that provide people with skills and reward those skills,” he said. Compare that to what Luxon said yesterday: “By building good economic management, a safer society, better public services, New Zealanders came back.”

Last month, RNZ’s Giles Beckford looked at the latest round of unemployment data, reporting that the number of unemployed people was estimated to be 134,000 – or 4.3% of the working population. As he wrote, the rise in unemployment can be linked to a slumping economy. “Throw in inflation pushing through 7%, and the Reserve Bank hiking interest rates to slow it down, the economy was bound to slow,” he wrote. A few days later, his colleague Susan Edmunds reported that the peak of unemployment could see a further 26,000 without work.

Is the grass really greener?

With high unemployment usually comes a struggling economy, something I’m sure will come as no surprise. A statement from Kiwibank’s economists yesterday said 2024 hasn’t got off to a good start. “We continue to expect the rest of 2024 to be a year of low growth, as high interest rates continue to depress demand,” they said. Social development minister Louise Upston told RNZ’s Giles Dexter in March that the economy being in recession could see our “best and brightest” choose to head across the ditch, something that’s been picked up on in Australia. We talked recently about the concerns Australia was attempting to poach New Zealand workers, especially from areas like education and law enforcement. The Spinoff’s Shanti Mathias looked at that in-depth almost a year ago. According to the Herald’s Liam Dann, there was a provisional net migration loss of 24,200 people to Australia in the year ended September 2023.

This report from the ABC last month (which was before the coalition’s first budget) focused on the state of our economy, the growing job cuts in the public sector and growing unemployment, concluding that “the appeal of higher wages in Australia and a chance at citizenship has seen the number of Kiwis making the move increase”. RNZ’s Susan Edmunds took a look this week at whether the grass really is greener in Australia, reporting that the average full-time weekly earnings were A$1,953.70 in November last year, compared with $1,558 in New Zealand.