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The BulletinNovember 16, 2023

Bank CEO worries home ownership ‘preserve of the rich’ as migrant arrivals hit record high

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Migration data points to a record high net migration gain. A bank CEO is worried about the impact on housing affordability, and Auckland classrooms are bursting at the seams, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

ANZ Australia CEO warns home ownership ‘has become the preserve of the rich’

ANZ Australia and ANZ New Zealand released their profit results this week. In Australia, the bank unveiled a $7.4b profit, while here, it increased its cash profit by 10% in the year to September 30 to $2.262b. Speaking to The Australian (paywalled), Australian CEO Shayne Elliot said lending regulations had helped make it the most difficult environment in 30 years to get approved for a mortgage and warned the Australian dream of home ownership “has become the preserve of the rich”.

‘I hope it doesn’t mean you have to be rich or have well-off parents to be able to own your own home in New Zealand’

In a subsequently reported email to BusinessDesk (paywalled), ANZ NZ’s CEO, Antonia Watson, said she shared Elliot’s concerns about New Zealand. Watson cited many factors, including high immigration, high construction costs and tight lending regulations, that she says risk creating “a tipping point for home ownership” in New Zealand, just as was occurring in Australia. “I hope it doesn’t mean you have to be rich or have well-off parents to be able to own your own home in New Zealand,” Watson said. “This is a serious issue about the social and economic fabric of New Zealand that I hope the incoming government addresses.”

Migrant arrivals hit record high

Stats NZ released international migration statistics yesterday. The 237,100 migrant arrivals are the highest on record for an annual period. People are leaving New Zealand in record high numbers (118,200) too, likely heading off on OEs after the pandemic restrained travel plans. Overall, though, the net migration gain of 118,800 people in the September 2023 year is also a record high. Migration-driven population growth has more than doubled compared to pre-Covid levels. interest.co.nz’s Dan Brunskill has a good report this morning on the now-familiar $100b infrastructure deficit, housing and our increasing population.

Auckland schools gain more than 8000 pupils this year

As RNZ reported a fortnight ago, Auckland schools have gained more than 8000 pupils this year, the biggest jump in 20 years. The Post Primary Teachers' Association (PPTA) is concerned about high immigration putting pressure on the education system. Most of the new students in Auckland have parents on residence or work visas. Rangitoto College principal Patrick Gale says that the Ministry of Education had failed to warn schools of growth. The extended interview on Nine to Noon with Gale and PPTA acting president Chris Abercrombie is worth a listen too. It’s a good insight into the issues roll unpredictability creates and our frustrating inability to plan for the future.

Keep going!
coalition talks 2023

The BulletinNovember 15, 2023

One small U-turn for Act and National, one possible leap forward for coalition deal

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As the coalition negotiations are pursued up and down the North Island, and wishlists mount, what is and isn’t happening while the caretaker convention is in place, asks Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

History repeats as Winston Peters plays by The Rules

You might expect that any mention of a U-turn during coalition talks would relate to policy, but in this instance, it was somewhat literal. After heading to Wellington yesterday, reportedly to possibly meet with Winston Peters, David Seymour and Christopher Luxon turned around and came back to Auckland last night, where Peters is and where he reportedly got a haircut. They are reportedly, possibly, going to meet today. After dinner in Wellington last night (Peters in absentia), Shane Jones said, “It’s time for the kauri tree from Whananāki to meet with the totara trees”. This “whacky races, Benny Hill theme tune” vibe is familiar and expected. In 2017, while we waited for coalition negotiations to conclude and a government to be formed, there were stories about whether a wink from Jacinda Ardern meant anything, stakeouts, foreign buyers being the subject of negotiation discussions, and Peters taking his time. As Ben Thomas writes in The Post, Peters is playing “The Game” and by “The Rules”, both titles of turn-of-the-century dating bestsellers.

Wishlists and priorities fill the vacuum

From the top of the North to the bottom of the South, wishlists for the new government are mounting, and these are just stories from the last few days. With news that State Highway 1 to Northland over the Brynderwyn Hills may be closed for months to repair storm damage, business leaders continue to ask for a long-term solution. In Invercargill, they want funding for an emergency water supply. Auckland councillor Richard Hills says Auckland must be a top priority for the new government. Christchurch wants clarity on water regulation, among other things. Federated Farmers is asking for fairly immediate action on a range of issues. At the same time, retirement village residents went to Wellington yesterday to ask for an end to what they see as “exploitation” of the elderly by village owners. Broadly, businesses want a business-friendly government, while most of us want to pay less for food, petrol, power, and flights. As BusinessDesk’s Pattrick Smellie writes (paywalled), there’s a tension between those two things, especially in the desire to address the lack of competition in multiple sectors. Infrastructure New Zealand has penned an open letter to Luxon regarding the sector’s problems. Despite the clock running down to the end of the year, likely finance minister Nicola Willis maintains there will be a mini-budget before Christmas “to see the true state of the New Zealand economy and the government’s finances.”

What your government is not doing

Taking care in the Beehive. Image: Tina Tiller

Toby Manhire has spoken to constitutional expert Andrew Geddis about what the caretaker convention actually means, what continues to happen, and what does not happen while it’s in place. For all the urgency and pressure conveyed about the wait and via the wishlists, it’s worth noting that Geddis says the caretaker convention is working as it should. Manhire catalogues where gaps are emerging, noting the particularly real consequences for those waiting on things like immigration decisions. It’s a good read.

Free trade implications of failing to meet Paris Agreement obligations

As I touched on yesterday and Manhire details this morning, our lack of or diminished presence at global events is one consequence of this transitional period. We will face scrutiny at Cop 28 about our efforts to meet our Paris Agreement obligations. RNZ’s Eloise Gibson has a story about what may await an incoming climate change minister. As Gibson writes, New Zealand could find itself in breach of its free trade deal with Europe if it walks back its commitments under the Paris Agreement. The deal is on track to come into force in 2024 and includes an enforceable promise by both parties to “effectively implement” their 2030 climate targets under the Paris Agreement.