Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Questions over how Greens should approach Labour relationship, Auckland pub patrons told to self-isolate, and highly leveraged investors send house prices higher.

How lucky is the Green party, to have so many people giving advice and suggestions right now? As talks continue around the formation of the government, there’s no shortage of people weighing in. That’s fair enough of course, everyone has the right to an opinion. But the interesting point is of it all is that the party now finds itself in the position of considering what it should be going forward, and that has implications for what the government as a whole will be.

We’ll start with two former MPs. Catherine Delahunty told Radio NZ the party would be better off sitting in opposition, and pushing on the government from that direction, particularly given the Labour majority. “I think we’re going to need them to push this large monolith further to the left because the messages we’re hearing from Jacinda Ardern indicate a very centrist government.” Kevin Hague, by contrast, tweeted that much more could be accomplished from a place of government. “I believe the Greens should definitely seek to join government. I’m acutely aware of the urgency of the climate and biodiversity collapse crises. Action is needed now, not in 3 years.” If you’ll forgive the slightly sarcastic tone at the top of the piece, it’s fair to assume both of these points are made in good faith.

Not everyone is quite so keen on the idea of Labour bringing the Greens in. The Employers and Manufacturers Association spokesperson Alan McDonald said that “businesses” won’t want to see the Greens in government, reports Radio NZ, because in his view they would push too hard and fast on employment law changes. In a twist, co-leader Marama Davidson is sort of in agreement with the EMA, reports the NZ Herald, saying that a Labour government wouldn’t go as far as the Greens would want them to. From the right, commentator Matthew Hooton wrote in the NZ Herald that either choice will contain difficulties in holding the party’s internal coalition together. This one may not be written in quite such good faith, but it is a fair point.

One question for both Labour and the Greens will be figuring out what exactly the voters wanted, when delivering the shape of parliament. Some speculation has taken place that soft National voters went to Labour in order to keep the Greens out, but as Stuff’s Henry Cooke fairly points out, there’s not a lot of actual evidence to back that up beyond anecdote. Equally anecdotal is the suggestion from Labour activist and blogger at The Standard Greg Presland, who said he was “pretty sure there were more than a few Labour voters thinking they needed to make sure the Government was as progressive as possible and made sure that the Green Party can have a significant effect on party policy.”

And what of the actual negotiations? They’re ongoing, reports Stuff, and according to party leaders the current topic is what the nature of an agreement might end up being. There hasn’t been any more clarity on whether a formal coalition has been ruled out, even if various reports suggest Labour is pretty cold on the idea. We should know by the end of next week at the latest what the situation is, and which of the advice-givers ends up getting what they want.

Finally, there was some genuinely generous advice given from one former MP to a new electorate MP on the Gone By Lunchtime podcast. In 1993 Sandra Lee won an upset victory in Auckland Central for the Alliance, the same seat Chlöe Swarbrick just claimed for the Greens. Lee offered the following wisdom: “Be fearless,” she said.

An update on the situation at the Sudima Hotel in Christchurch, currently hosting people in managed isolation: Checkpoint reports that 21 people have now tested positive, with 18 of those cases confirmed and three more under investigation. 235 people in fishing crews are currently staying at the hotel, and the clock may be reset on them given the spread of cases. Meanwhile in Auckland, people who attended The Malt pub in Greenhithe last Friday night are being asked to self-isolate. Our live updates has the details – the venue was visited by someone who has since tested positive. All in all, the incident gives a very good reason for why we should all keep scanning regularly on the Covid app, or more generally keeping track of movements.

House prices are set to spiral even higher, with highly leveraged investors rushing out to buy even more, reports Tamsyn Parker for the (paywalled) NZ Herald. There’s also an increase in the market share being seen for first home buyers, with both categories benefitting from Reserve Bank moves to drop loan to value ratio restrictions, meaning people with smaller deposits could more easily get a mortgage. Governor Adrian Orr suggested that the RBNZ is currently looking at whether that needs to change again, and said that if prices are being driven by the very highly leveraged, that could become a real worry.

Further to yesterday’s discussion about adapting to climate change, this is a piece about an incredibly important and under-discussed piece of legislation. Stuff’s Thomas Coughlan has written about the Managed Retreat and Climate Change Adaptation Bill, which is basically a proposed law to move people and property away from places that will become unlivable – very low lying coastal areas being one example. The details of all of this are yet to be thrashed out, and it will be highly contentious. Expect to hear a bit more about it over the coming three years.

The red meat sector is bracing for a big hit from Covid-19 in the next year, reports the NZ Herald’s (paywalled) Jamie Grey. That’s because the potential export markets are being hit hard by economic slumps, which reduces purchasing power. The effects are likely to flow through to farmgate prices and profits.

I’m personally very interested in seeing what happens to MPs who lost their seats last weekend, and the future for this one in particular could be fascinating. The NZ Herald reports outgoing National MP Alfred Ngaro held a prayer on the steps of parliament yesterday. He was of course exploring the formation of a Christian values political party last year, but declined approaches from a group who went on to form the ONE Party. In fact, as the video in the article shows, ONE Party co-leader Stephanie Harawira was there on the steps with him.

A fascinating piece about the lines of defence the country has against Covid, and how they can be likened to layers of Swiss cheese. As Siouxsie Wiles and Toby Morris explain, that’s not a knock on them – rather it’s about the inevitability of holes in systems, and that’s why we need to keep on top of other mechanisms to keep the virus out, and keep it from spreading if it does get out.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Drop us a line at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

Right now on The Spinoff: Shabnam Dastgheib writes about an online support group aimed at getting those made unemployed recently back on their feet. Don Rowe meets the post-graduate students putting tikanga and kaupapa Māori at the centre of learning how to lead. Stewart Sowman-Lund reviews Taskmaster, which he says proves New Zealand TV can do panel comedy shows. Jean Sergent reviews The Vow, a docuseries that takes a deep dive into the cesspit of the NXIVM cult. Jack Vowles writes about vote volatility, and the challenge ahead for Labour to maintain their newfound dominance. Professor Jacinta Ruru writes about the need to integrate tikanga into legal education. Alice Webb-Liddall has a great feature on Sports Team, a duo behind some of the coolest music videos being made right now. And Michael Andrew has taken it upon himself to review every slice of gluten free bread available in New Zealand.

For a feature today, a stark warning about the dangers of the public service falling to political interference. The US once had the sorts of institutions that would make fighting Covid-19 possible, including the highly vaunted Centre for Disease Control. But as this ProPublica investigative feature reveals, the capabilities and reputation of the CDC have crashed throughout Covid, and it may struggle to ever recover. Here’s an excerpt:

The next day, Trump put Vice President Mike Pence in charge of his coronavirus task force and assumed the role of communicator-in-chief. The CDC, which had been the public face of the government during every health crisis in memory, soon became nearly invisible. After a few more briefings, a Pence aide told the agency’s media staff that this was the president’s stage, not theirs.

Even when Redfield was allowed to speak publicly, his sleepy eyes and soft, droning tone anesthetized listeners. The agency had been effectively muzzled.

“When it mattered the most, they shut us up,” a senior CDC official said. “The threat is clear. If we want to ever be able to talk tomorrow or next week or next month — or whatever is being dangled in front of us, you stay inside the lines.”

Champion rower Robbie Manson won’t be going to the Tokyo Olympics next year, after announcing his retirement from the sport. Stuff reports he goes out with the fastest ever time in the single sculls, set at the 2017 World Rowing Cup. It probably wasn’t going to be the boat he competed in at the next Olympics, having shifted to double sculling. What will Manson do next? He may get into equestrian, if some hints at the end of the story are anything to go by.

That’s it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme

Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: New report shows climate change already affecting New Zealand, new crop of managed isolation Covid cases, and National leader and ousted electorate MPs all staying on.

As promised, today’s Bulletin will cover the government’s new climate change report, called Our Atmosphere and Climate. It was released just before the election, so rather than giving it a once over lightly, it’s worth looking at in more depth – after all, it’s quite an important issue.

And it’s an issue that is playing out now, not at some hypothetical point in the future. As the NZ Herald’s Jamie Morton reports, places all over New Zealand are already seeing more hot days than normal, in both summer and winter. Drought frequency is increasing, and frost days are decreasing. At the same time, rainfall patterns are changing, which combines to change growing seasons for crops. We’re also seeing an increase in wildfires, with longer fire seasons and worse conditions for firefighters to work in. And to reiterate the central point of that article, this is all happening now – not next decade, not in a century, but right in front of our eyes.

The increased fire risk is worth unpacking further, because it’s one of the effects of climate change that can destroy lives and livelihoods in an instant. Newshub’s Rosie Gordon and Vita Molyneux headlined their report with this, in particular highlighting that regions that aren’t accustomed to fires will see a much higher risk over the coming years. By 2040, “Wellington would see its fire danger double, and coastal Otago would triple,” is one rather jarring line. Professional firefighters were talking about being stretched last year, let alone the rural volunteer brigades.

The decisions made on climate by the incoming government will have far-reaching implications for the country for decades. Newsroom’s Marc Daalder has analysed where those decisions will take place, primarily around emissions budgets and targets under both NZ law and international agreements. And of course achieving emissions reductions is imperative, both for New Zealand and the world. But there’s a point very well made in this Stuff op-ed about how the conversation must also include adaptation for the changes already taking place. That involves both planning and getting real about what’s on the way.

For more expertise on this, the Science Media Centre continues to be an invaluable resource. A particularly pertinent comment in their roundup, from professor James Renwick: “The changing climate affects our physical and mental health through the effects of extreme weather, changing patterns of disease, and the emotional stresses associated with extreme events. There are also multiple effects on ecosystems and biodiversity, on our economy and on communities nationwide.”

Almost a dozen international fishermen have Covid-19 in managed isolation in Christchurch, reports Stuff. 11 people in total have tested positive, and another 14 are under investigation. All had tested negative before their flights, and the positive cases were picked up in routine day 3 testing. The risk of community transmission as a result of the incident is low, and the hotel they’re all staying in has been locked down as a precaution.

Judith Collins will stay as leader, and defeated electorate MPs Gerry Brownlee and Nick Smith have no plans to leave parliament. Those are the top lines from National’s post-caucus press conference yesterday, in which various MPs also pledged their total loyalty to Collins as leader. Radio NZ reports there will be a campaign review, which will include a listening tour of members and supporters to figure out how to reconnect with voters who the party lost. No decisions about portfolios have been made yet. On the subject of the campaign, this from Politik goes deep into where things went wrong, and why Collins spent the last week of it absolutely flailing and failing to connect.

Also at parliament, the Greens and Labour are currently having talks about how they’ll work together, but they’re not really talking about it openly. Justin Giovannetti is back down there and reports that no comment is the order of the day. Meanwhile, Tova O’Brien has a ‘Newshub understands’ sort of story (when stories are written like that the presumption is that sources have spoken off the record) contending that Labour will not offer the Greens a formal coalition.

Sexual assault survivors in Wellington are being urged to come forward to police, after widespread reports relating to the music industry were aired on social media. Our live updates reports survivor advocate Louise Nicholas has assured them that it is safe to do so. The police say they have received “a small number” of formal complaints so far, and have opened an investigation.

There’s been some outstanding Wellington issues coverage in the last week, so to keep it fair I’m going to give a shout to two strong competitors. Georgina Campbell from the NZ Herald has reported on the looming ‘sludge crisis’, with a $185 million bill to fix wastewater issues, including a plan to reduce the volumes heading out to sea. And the Dominion Post’s Joel MacManus has looked at the post-election considerations for the Let’s Get Wellington Moving transport package, particularly in relation to the differing priorities between Labour and the Greens.

Even more election stuff on The Spinoff: Mariner Fagaiava-Muller writes about what the election means for Pasifika people, and whether a change in the community’s parliamentary representatives matters. Tara Ward investigates how former Nelson MP came to have a billboard on the wall promising strong tea and better scones. José Barbosa wraps the election night coverage as only he can. And Madeleine Chapman concludes an incredible series of wrapping each political week in memes.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Drop us a line at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

Right now on The Spinoff: On the Rag is back with a brand new episode about imposter syndrome and how to get past it. Some very smart people look at the impact of Covid-19, and how it has changed New Zealand forever – some of these observations are really insightful and haven’t really been talked about in other places. Journalist Shilo Kino writes about releasing her debut young adult novel, in an incredible essay about how Māori stories are written out of wider narratives. Teuila Fuatai meets comedian Tofiga Fepulea’i from the Laughing Sāmoans, who is heading back out to resume his Covid-interrupted tour. Michael Andrew writes about Allbirds releasing a new shirt made partly from crab shells. And Charlotte Muru-Lanning writes about soil health, and why we need to stop treating it like dirt.

For a feature today, a look at a weird looking safety practice that starts to make a lot of sense once you read more. A while ago Atlas Obscura wrote about why Japanese train workers point at everything constantly when doing otherwise simple tasks. It turns out, it can make a big difference to avoiding equally simple, and potentially catastrophic mistakes. Here’s an excerpt:

The system is in place across a number of industries in Japan. Originally developed by the now-defunct Kobe Railroad Administration Bureau in the late Meiji Period (the early 20th century), pointing-and-calling is known to reduce workplace errors by up to 85 percent, according to one 1996 study. While some workers point-and-call more enthusiastically than others, even those who are more blasé benefit from the increased awareness that comes from physically reinforcing each task.

For such a simple but effective method of improving workers’ error rate, the system continues to find itself largely confined to Japan. Indeed, it is one of the many quirks of the Japanese workplace that fall flat with Western workers. In the case of pointing-and-calling, Japanese commentators have theorized that Western employees feel “silly” performing the requisite gestures and calls.

There could be a debutant for the Silver Ferns in their upcoming domestic competition and series against England, with Mystics teenager Grace Newke called into the wider squad. Stuff reports it has been a rapid rise for Nweke, who wasn’t part of the earlier squad this season. The side will be lacking a bit of experience, with Bailey Mes, Temalisi Fakahokotau and Katrina Rore all ruled out.

That’s it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme