Image: Tina Tiller
Image: Tina Tiller

PoliticsOctober 13, 2023

Election 2023: The must-watch Māori seats

Ātea editor
Image: Tina Tiller
Image: Tina Tiller

Who’s leading in the polls? Will National’s return cause any upsets? And what is voters’ main concern? (Spoiler: it’s the cost of living). Liam Rātana looks at the state of play in the Māori electorates.

As we approach the general election, the political landscape within the Māori electorates is undergoing significant shifts. National is fielding candidates in two Māori electorates, the first time since 2002 that they have put up candidates for any of the seats. Yet for all National’s surging support this election, Māori electorates historically belong to the left. Will anything change this time around?

Hauraki-Waikato

Here Labour’s Nanaia Mahuta, the country’s longest-serving female MP, is leading in recent polling. She’ll be praying that polling holds, as her absence from the list means she’ll be out of parliament if she comes up short. Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, the 20-year-old candidate for Te Pāti Māori, is nipping at Mahuta’s heels; whether via the electorate or on the party list, she’s set to be the youngest MP the country has seen in 170 years. As for the other candidates, Donna Pokere Phillips, co-leader of the NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party, has a history in local politics. The primary voter concern in Hauraki-Waikato is the cost of living. Labour’s support has waned since 2020, while Te Pāti Māori’s has grown, indicating a shifting political dynamic in the region.

Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke. Photo: Supplied

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

After over 23 years of Labour dominance in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, Meka Whaitiri created shockwaves when she left the party and her ministerial role to join Te Pāti Māori. Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, known for its vast geographical span, has historically been associated with Parekura Horomia, a revered figure in both Māori and wider New Zealand politics. Whaitiri, who was mentored by Horomia, and Labour’s new candidate Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, who counts him among her influences, are the main contenders for the seat. Recent polls suggest a close race between the two, with Tangaere-Manuel leading slightly. Key issues for the electorate include the cost of living and the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle.

Tāmaki Makaurau

Hinurewa te Hau is contesting the Tāmaki Makaurau electorate for National, marking the first time since 2002 that the party has fielded a candidate for this seat. Meanwhile, Peeni Henare, seeking his fourth term for Labour, leads in the polls but faces competition from Takutai Kemp of Te Pāti Māori. Beyond the electorate race itself, multiple MPs from Tāmaki Makaurau could potentially make it into parliament, depending on party votes. All candidates agree on the importance of engaging young voters and addressing cost-of-living challenges, though their solutions vary. Vision New Zealand candidate Hannah Tamaki is also expected to gain a small share of votes thanks to her staunch supporter base. For more on Tāmaki Makaurau, check out Charlotte Muru-Lanning’s Hot Seat profile, to be published later today on The Spinoff.

Te Tai Hauāuru

A vast electorate stretching from Kawhia to Porirua, Te Tai Hauāuru is witnessing a competitive race after incumbent MP (and current speaker of the house) Adrian Rurawhe chose to go list-only. Historically represented by either Labour or the Māori Party, the seat is now also being vied for by National. The top three candidates are Debbie Ngarewa-Packer of Te Pāti Māori, who narrowly lost in 2020; Labour’s Soraya Peke-Mason, a candidate for the seat back in 2011; and National’s Harete Hipango who, along with Hinurewa te Hau in Tāmaki Makaurau, is the party’s first Māori electorate candidate in over two decades. A recent poll shows Peke-Mason leading with 34%, followed by Ngarewa-Packer at 29% and Hipango at 12%. As is the story in most electorates, the cost of living is the top concern for voters.

Kelvin Davis, the incumbent in Te Tai Tokerau (Photo: Getty Images)

Te Tai Tokerau

A historically significant Māori electorate, Te Tai Tokerau is where Kelvin Davis, Labour’s deputy leader, is seeking re-election. Davis has held the seat since 2014, but he faces stiff competition from Mariameno Kapa-Kingi of Te Pāti Māori and the Green Party’s Hūhana Lyndon. Despite Davis’s past victories, there’s a potential shift in voter preference, with some predicting increased support for Kapa-Kingi reflecting the swing against Labour nationwide. If they lose, both Davis and Lyndon should still enter parliament on the party list, allowing for strategic voting. The northern region, known for its rich political history and influence, has long been central to Māori rights discussions. Infrastructure, employment opportunities, and the cost of living remain the region’s highest priorities.

Te Tai Tonga

In Te Tai Tonga, the South Island electorate, incumbent Labour MP Rino Tirikatene faces a tight race for re-election. While he secured 50.4% of votes in 2020, a recent poll shows him at 36%, with Tākuta Ferris of Te Pāti Māori trailing at 25% and 18% of voters remaining undecided. Again, the cost of living is a primary concern for voters in Te Tai Tonga. Both candidates have discussed their approaches to solving this issue, with Tirikatene focusing on controlling inflation and Ferris on removing GST from kai. The recent electorate debate also touched on mental health, potential coalition partners and tax policies, highlighting the shifting political dynamics in the post-Covid election landscape.

More Reading

Waiariki

Up in the Bay of Plenty, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi is poised to retain his seat – he’s at 50% in a recent Whakaata Māori poll, significantly ahead of Labour’s first-time candidate Toni Boynton at 22%. Waititi previously defeated Labour’s Tāmati Coffey (who’s now running in the general electorate of East Coast) for the seat in 2020. While Waititi enjoys strong support among younger age groups, older voters are more closely divided between him and Boynton. On the party vote, most Waiariki voters favour Labour, but a significant portion supports Te Pāti Māori. The primary concern for Waiariki voters is – what else – the cost of living.

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Vroom, and very much vroom. Image: Tina Tiller
Vroom, and very much vroom. Image: Tina Tiller

PoliticsOctober 13, 2023

2023 election campaign vehicles – ranked

Editor-at-large
Vroom, and very much vroom. Image: Tina Tiller
Vroom, and very much vroom. Image: Tina Tiller

Go directly to Hampton Downs and start your engines. 

Billboards on wheels, giant rosettes with combustion engines – this is a political movement, a drive for public attention. As the race splutters into the final strait of the final lap, we rank the party campaign vehicles of 2023.

8. The Act bus

Nothing wrong with this bus, which would be higher in the ranking except that Act appears twice. “Big Pinky” they’re calling it, which The Spinoff understands to be a reference to size and colour. 

David Seymour and other Act candidates in front of a big pink bus
David Seymour, Act candidates and Big Pinky (Photo: Stewart Sowman-Lund)

Last time they had 10 candidates on the side of the bus; this time it’s 20, and we can only hope they’ve all deleted their old Twitter accounts. On the other side, presumably: Kate Sheppard and Nelson Mandela.

7. Chippy’s go-kart

Had we been running these rankings a couple of elections back, Labour would have been right up there thanks to Stuart Nash, who put together a decommissioned fire engine and a decommissioned sitcom about an army hospital in the Korean War that sounded a bit like his name to create a special magic.

That’s gone, as is Nash. Disappointingly, so is Kieran McAnulty’s ute.

He has at least got this.

After lengthy discussions the judges have ruled that, in any case, none of the above qualifies because they’re not strictly campaign vehicles. 

And neither – in the lamentable absence of any Labour campaign bus – does this, but it squeezes in thanks to Chris Hipkins’ unabashed glee at whizzing out of Covid isolation and directly into a hairpin turn in a go-kart in Upper Hutt. 

(A polite request to North Shore candidate George Hampton: please bling up your ice cream van with some party branding next time.)

6. The NZ Loyal Mini

Some have doubted Liz Gunn’s assertion that her party will win two million votes on Saturday, but when you see this supporter’s souped up Mini it’s clear that anything is possible.

5. The National battlebus

The National bus, which isn’t but should be called Big Bluey, is ranked higher than Big Pinky just because it’s getting a good old-fashioned last-days-of-campaign workout, complete with journalists, supporters and candidates throwing all decorum out the window and singing Spice Girls songs with modified lyrics.

4. Julie Anne Genter’s cargo bike

Would you expect any less from the woman who biked to hospital while in labour (the lower case labour there is important)? 

Just as well the Rongotai candidate managed this, too; otherwise the Greens’ contribution to this ranking would have been the EV that got stuck in a park.

3. Te Pāti Māori big rig

A literal truck that has foldy-down sides so it can be a stage at events around the country? Chef’s kiss.

And in what has to be the photograph of the campaign so far, snapped by Matthew Whitehead, here is the TPM Truck bumper to bumper with the Act bus, outside a hotel in Palmerston North.

Photo: Matthew Whitehead

2. Act’s plane

A controversial choice for silver, some will say, given the disquiet around it being lent to David Seymour by an American millionaire. 

The plane is up there, however, not because it is fancy but because it isn’t. Other party leaders around the world bounce around on Learjets and Gulfstreams. In New Zealand, it’s a flight from New Plymouth to Taumarunui on a tiny, 50-year-old Cessna so terrifying that not even Act staff wanted to get on board the thing.

The only factor that weighed against the Act plane? Why go for “Flying Pinky” when it could be Prebjet or Right Wings?

1. Winston Peters’ horse.

Sorry, sunshine, but it’s not even close.

Winston Peters, talking about rodeos.
The Spinoff is your meeting place in turbulent times, and with your help, we’ll see it through.

We know you know it’s tough out there. We are writing regularly about the economy, the price of butter, local business closures, and the cost of being a person in Aotearoa in 2025. We’ve seen the price of everything go up, cinemas are using off-brand Jaffas, and Hayden Donnell says everything is “rooted”. Sometimes it feels like things are hopeless, but there is still a meeting place for like-minded New Zealanders and a home for local stories, well-researched journalism, humour and hot takes. That place is The Spinoff.

If you’ve read this far, then you appreciate what we’re trying to achieve. Maybe you come back for our clear-sighted commentary on politics, or maybe it’s for our cultural offering of books, TV, film, theatre and live event reviews and recommendations. Whatever the reason, we appreciate your company. But it comes at a cost. For every 100 Spinoff readers, only 3.2 support us financially.

We need this to be higher to confidently plan for the future, continue to take the government to task, back the cultural sector in Aotearoa, and bring the unique perspectives you love to the biggest stories of the week. If you haven’t already, please consider making a regular donation today. Thank you.

Our future depends on

funding from readers

Politics