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Image: Tina Tiller
Image: Tina Tiller

PoliticsAugust 8, 2020

100% accurate predictions for the 2020 general election campaign

Image: Tina Tiller
Image: Tina Tiller

All around the country, people are asking ‘what’s going to happen in the 2020 general election campaign?’ That’s because they haven’t read this guide, which reveals exactly what will happen in the 2020 general election campaign.

Someone has finally put this term of parliament out of its misery. We’ve had three years of scandals, sex scandals, and Jami-Lee Ross, with occasional interruptions for babies, baby yaks, and the passage of legislation. Thank God it’s over. Now it’s time for the general election, which will still be filled with scandal, yaks, and Jami-Lee Ross, but no more new laws.

The conventional way to experience an election is through the linear passage of time, watching events as they unfold. However if you, like me, prefer to skip to the end to see what happens, I’ve created this list of election predictions. Please keep in mind these are 100% scientific, so if you do have a problem with what’s written, take a complaint up with God or the laws of physics.

Labour will win 47.31% of the vote

A hugely popular prime minister is heading into a re-election campaign after a first term where they’ve been praised for their assured handling of some of the worst disasters ever to hit New Zealand. Despite that, they’ve been criticised by their ideological allies for failing to spend their political capital on enacting a transformational agenda. That’s right folks, I’m talking about John Key in 2011. He got 47.31% of the vote. By extrapolating that data point out to the 2020 election using a complicated algorithm, I can predict Jacinda Ardern will get the exact same percentage.

National will win 25.13% of the vote

A major party has gone through a series of leadership changes. In the most recent one, a balding middle-aged man who struggled under pressure was replaced by a divisive former minister who’s beloved by a portion of the party’s base, but loathed by some swing voters and several of their colleagues. That’s right folks, I’m talking about Labour in 2014. David Cunliffe received 25.13% of the vote, and Judith Collins should receive the exact same percentage.

Chlöe Swarbrick will be arrested for graffitiing “debate me” on a Helen White hoarding

In court, prosecutors will describe Swarbrick’s offence as being in line with an escalating pattern of behaviour.

Chlöe Swarbrick will win Auckland Central from jail

Labour’s Helen White and whoever staggers out of National’s sexism gauntlet are both strong contenders to win Auckland Central. However, Swarbrick looks set to deliver an upset victory after winning a Zoom debate from her cell in the Mt Eden correctional facility.

Shane Jones will not win Northland

Despite plastering every square metre of Northland with his face and the words “Jones for Jobs”, Shane Jones will lose to National’s Matt King. This may spell the end of Winston Peters’ parliamentary career, and just as worryingly, the use of John Farnham’s ‘You’re The Voice’ at political rallies.

James Shaw will do this laugh again when he hears the news about New Zealand First

Winston Peters will *redacted for legal reasons*

I don’t mean to impugn the character of the Rt Honourable Winston Peters, but the New Zealand First leader does have a history of *redacted for legal reasons* during campaigns. With his party in dire straits, it’s possible to see him being tempted to *redacted for legal reasons*, *redacted for legal reasons*, or start a fist fight with James Shaw in a last-ditch bid to win one more term.

Peters has always been one of our most litigious politicians. He recently sued the attorney-general and National politicians Paula Bennett and Anne Tolley over the leak of his superannuation details. Having said that, I feel comfortable predicting he will either *redacted for legal reasons*, or bonk James Shaw on the head with Trevor Mallard’s huge gold mace.

The Greens will get just over 5%, thanks to an insurgent campaign by the Taxpayers’ Union and the Bad Boys of Brexit

The Greens opened the door for their opponents when they threatened to imprison New Zealanders in joyless health cubicles until their deaths at age 100+ suggested making sports clubs water-only. Judith Collins seized on the appearance of upper middle-class censoriousness, saying she was “sick of these people” being “bossy boots”. It was unclear whether she also hated it when National health minister Jonathan Coleman supported water-only policies during his tenure.

The Greens were teetering on the brink of the 5% threshold even before this setback, and may sink below it in the next poll. But the party is being thrown a lifeline by some unlikely sources. Despite being employed by Ayn Rand and Winston Peters respectively, the Taxpayers Union and the Arron Banks-led Bad Boys of Brexit appear to be running an insurgent Green campaign.

Will that be enough to get the party back into parliament? This is my only prediction that isn’t ironclad. However, if the Greens do fall below 5%, they will be saved by Swarbrick’s prison win.

Jacqui Dean will share accurate detail about National’s policy and/or record on housing and/or urban development 

Jacqui Dean’s tenure as National’s housing spokesperson has been pockmarked with humiliations. First her leader Judith Collins told media she only got the job because National wasn’t taking housing seriously. 

Dean followed that up by criticising a policy National actually supports, then making a wildly inaccurate claim about how many state houses the party built while in office. This can’t last. At some point during the campaign Dean will share some accurate details on National’s housing and/or urban development policy. 

David Seymour will finally smile

For years, David Seymour has been pantomiming a happy politician. He turns up to Dancing with the Stars and twerks. He says “hi hi hi hi hi hi”. Sometimes it’s convincing. But when election time comes around, Seymour’s face is plastered on billboards for all to see, and his inner turmoil is revealed. In picture after picture, his smile says “I’m fun and approachable”, but look closer, and you’ll see his eyes are saying “hell is empty, and none of the devils are here”.

People look at these pictures and assume Seymour is pining for the cold caress of the free market. That’s not true. What he really wants is a friend. For six years, Act’s leader has been consulting a caucus of one. This election, Act is polling around 3%. If it can maintain that support, and Seymour again wins Epsom, he will finally have another MP in the house with him. 

That would surely be cause for smize.

Phil Twyford will be put in charge of overseeing the runway development in the Chatham Islands until October

Twyford has been making important gains of late, but this strategic move will blunt one of National’s attack lines. 

National will not have any more leaders before the election

For a time, National was averaging one new leader every eight weeks. My officials are forecasting that rate to slow considerably in the coming weeks. That is unless…

Matt “Dooce” Doocey can step up as the primary bald, middle-aged National man

When Todd Muller became National leader, one of the major criticisms lodged against him was that he was grown in a lab devoted to producing bald, middle-aged, white male National MPs.

For a while, Muller could claim supremacy over his simulacrums. That’s been upended in recent weeks. Muller’s now on an extended break, Andrew Falloon has resigned to pursue being investigated by the police, and David Bennett is devoting his time to a protracted war to keep poor people out of a Hamilton suburb. The stage is set for Matt “Dooce” Doocey to emerge as a star in the party.

Everyone will have a nice time online

Every second you spend on social media is a second well spent, but that’s especially true during general elections. If past campaigns are anything to go by, everyone will spend the next few months working constructively together to brainstorm ways to improve the country. I for one am looking forward to hearing from my fellow online New Zealanders in the coming weeks.

Keep going!