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Image: Tina Tiller
Image: Tina Tiller

PoliticsAugust 8, 2020

100% accurate predictions for the 2020 general election campaign

Contributing writer
Image: Tina Tiller
Image: Tina Tiller

All around the country, people are asking ‘what’s going to happen in the 2020 general election campaign?’ That’s because they haven’t read this guide, which reveals exactly what will happen in the 2020 general election campaign.

Someone has finally put this term of parliament out of its misery. We’ve had three years of scandals, sex scandals, and Jami-Lee Ross, with occasional interruptions for babies, baby yaks, and the passage of legislation. Thank God it’s over. Now it’s time for the general election, which will still be filled with scandal, yaks, and Jami-Lee Ross, but no more new laws.

The conventional way to experience an election is through the linear passage of time, watching events as they unfold. However if you, like me, prefer to skip to the end to see what happens, I’ve created this list of election predictions. Please keep in mind these are 100% scientific, so if you do have a problem with what’s written, take a complaint up with God or the laws of physics.

Labour will win 47.31% of the vote

A hugely popular prime minister is heading into a re-election campaign after a first term where they’ve been praised for their assured handling of some of the worst disasters ever to hit New Zealand. Despite that, they’ve been criticised by their ideological allies for failing to spend their political capital on enacting a transformational agenda. That’s right folks, I’m talking about John Key in 2011. He got 47.31% of the vote. By extrapolating that data point out to the 2020 election using a complicated algorithm, I can predict Jacinda Ardern will get the exact same percentage.

National will win 25.13% of the vote

A major party has gone through a series of leadership changes. In the most recent one, a balding middle-aged man who struggled under pressure was replaced by a divisive former minister who’s beloved by a portion of the party’s base, but loathed by some swing voters and several of their colleagues. That’s right folks, I’m talking about Labour in 2014. David Cunliffe received 25.13% of the vote, and Judith Collins should receive the exact same percentage.

Chlöe Swarbrick will be arrested for graffitiing “debate me” on a Helen White hoarding

In court, prosecutors will describe Swarbrick’s offence as being in line with an escalating pattern of behaviour.

Chlöe Swarbrick will win Auckland Central from jail

Labour’s Helen White and whoever staggers out of National’s sexism gauntlet are both strong contenders to win Auckland Central. However, Swarbrick looks set to deliver an upset victory after winning a Zoom debate from her cell in the Mt Eden correctional facility.

Shane Jones will not win Northland

Despite plastering every square metre of Northland with his face and the words “Jones for Jobs”, Shane Jones will lose to National’s Matt King. This may spell the end of Winston Peters’ parliamentary career, and just as worryingly, the use of John Farnham’s ‘You’re The Voice’ at political rallies.

James Shaw will do this laugh again when he hears the news about New Zealand First

Winston Peters will *redacted for legal reasons*

I don’t mean to impugn the character of the Rt Honourable Winston Peters, but the New Zealand First leader does have a history of *redacted for legal reasons* during campaigns. With his party in dire straits, it’s possible to see him being tempted to *redacted for legal reasons*, *redacted for legal reasons*, or start a fist fight with James Shaw in a last-ditch bid to win one more term.

Peters has always been one of our most litigious politicians. He recently sued the attorney-general and National politicians Paula Bennett and Anne Tolley over the leak of his superannuation details. Having said that, I feel comfortable predicting he will either *redacted for legal reasons*, or bonk James Shaw on the head with Trevor Mallard’s huge gold mace.

The Greens will get just over 5%, thanks to an insurgent campaign by the Taxpayers’ Union and the Bad Boys of Brexit

The Greens opened the door for their opponents when they threatened to imprison New Zealanders in joyless health cubicles until their deaths at age 100+ suggested making sports clubs water-only. Judith Collins seized on the appearance of upper middle-class censoriousness, saying she was “sick of these people” being “bossy boots”. It was unclear whether she also hated it when National health minister Jonathan Coleman supported water-only policies during his tenure.

The Greens were teetering on the brink of the 5% threshold even before this setback, and may sink below it in the next poll. But the party is being thrown a lifeline by some unlikely sources. Despite being employed by Ayn Rand and Winston Peters respectively, the Taxpayers Union and the Arron Banks-led Bad Boys of Brexit appear to be running an insurgent Green campaign.

Will that be enough to get the party back into parliament? This is my only prediction that isn’t ironclad. However, if the Greens do fall below 5%, they will be saved by Swarbrick’s prison win.

Jacqui Dean will share accurate detail about National’s policy and/or record on housing and/or urban development 

Jacqui Dean’s tenure as National’s housing spokesperson has been pockmarked with humiliations. First her leader Judith Collins told media she only got the job because National wasn’t taking housing seriously. 

Dean followed that up by criticising a policy National actually supports, then making a wildly inaccurate claim about how many state houses the party built while in office. This can’t last. At some point during the campaign Dean will share some accurate details on National’s housing and/or urban development policy. 

David Seymour will finally smile

For years, David Seymour has been pantomiming a happy politician. He turns up to Dancing with the Stars and twerks. He says “hi hi hi hi hi hi”. Sometimes it’s convincing. But when election time comes around, Seymour’s face is plastered on billboards for all to see, and his inner turmoil is revealed. In picture after picture, his smile says “I’m fun and approachable”, but look closer, and you’ll see his eyes are saying “hell is empty, and none of the devils are here”.

People look at these pictures and assume Seymour is pining for the cold caress of the free market. That’s not true. What he really wants is a friend. For six years, Act’s leader has been consulting a caucus of one. This election, Act is polling around 3%. If it can maintain that support, and Seymour again wins Epsom, he will finally have another MP in the house with him. 

That would surely be cause for smize.

Phil Twyford will be put in charge of overseeing the runway development in the Chatham Islands until October

Twyford has been making important gains of late, but this strategic move will blunt one of National’s attack lines. 

National will not have any more leaders before the election

For a time, National was averaging one new leader every eight weeks. My officials are forecasting that rate to slow considerably in the coming weeks. That is unless…

Matt “Dooce” Doocey can step up as the primary bald, middle-aged National man

When Todd Muller became National leader, one of the major criticisms lodged against him was that he was grown in a lab devoted to producing bald, middle-aged, white male National MPs.

For a while, Muller could claim supremacy over his simulacrums. That’s been upended in recent weeks. Muller’s now on an extended break, Andrew Falloon has resigned to pursue being investigated by the police, and David Bennett is devoting his time to a protracted war to keep poor people out of a Hamilton suburb. The stage is set for Matt “Dooce” Doocey to emerge as a star in the party.

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    Every second you spend on social media is a second well spent, but that’s especially true during general elections. If past campaigns are anything to go by, everyone will spend the next few months working constructively together to brainstorm ways to improve the country. I for one am looking forward to hearing from my fellow online New Zealanders in the coming weeks.

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    OceanaGold’s existing open-pit gold mine in Waihi (Photo: Getty Images)
    OceanaGold’s existing open-pit gold mine in Waihi (Photo: Getty Images)

    OPINIONPoliticsAugust 7, 2020

    We were promised no more mines on DOC land, and we were betrayed

    OceanaGold’s existing open-pit gold mine in Waihi (Photo: Getty Images)
    OceanaGold’s existing open-pit gold mine in Waihi (Photo: Getty Images)

    By granting a permit to OceanaGold to mine under DOC land in the Coromandel, the government is not only threatening an endangered species, says Catherine Delahunty – it’s threatening future generations.

    I woke up angry. The government has given a 40-year permit to OceanaGold to mine under DOC land behind Whangamatā. It’s a waste of time being angry with the mining industry, a pack of dinosaurs pursuing their multinational modus operandi, profiting from weak governance regimes, but I am angry with the government. On August 8, 2017, I stood on the steps of parliament with David Parker and we promised the people that Labour and the Greens would protect the southern Hauraki from new mines. Then came the Speech from the Throne in November 2017 that said “there will be no new mines on conservation land”.

    So we waited with hope. The government told us they would consult us on this statement, but nothing has happened. Of course the Greens have tried on the inside to persuade Labour and New Zealand First to honour the promise, but any public challenge from them on this issue has been invisible, until a press release today that opposes the mining permit but does not challenge Labour for breaking the promise made. The communities fighting the multinationals have stood alone while miners have continued drilling and digging on the DOC land. If the promise had been progressed in any way at all, the miners might have felt less keen on investing in mining conservation lands, but the silence has been deafening. We all know the Greens do not have the numbers to force the honouring of the promise but it would be good if they challenged Labour and stopped playing nice to their coalition partners on this issue. It’s not helping them win votes and it’s not helping us hold Labour to account for their promises.

    MBIE granted the mining permit because the Crown Minerals Act’s purpose states it exists to facilitate mining. The government has not bothered to change the law to make it subject to Te Tiriti o Waitangi or open to public participation, let alone for a neutral purpose as a minerals manager. Just another failure to protect rights and interests other than those of mining companies. 

    The Archey’s frog (Photo: DOC/RNZ)

    Meanwhile, high in the forests behind Whangamatā, one of the most endangered frogs in the world lives in a supposedly peaceful habitat on protected land. OceanaGold has drilled in this habitat and now they plan to mine for gold underneath with a huge tunnelling and blasting project. The Archey’s frog is a unique ancient species that has no ears but is highly sensitive to vibration. It spends its life in a very limited area of forest, and no one knows what effects there might be from blasting underneath it. 

    In addition to the frogs, the area beneath the DOC estate has a very high water table that feeds the beautiful rivers that run down to the coast near Whangamatā. The toxic waste from mining under the DOC land will have to be transported out and dumped, and this means industrialising above ground at some point, as well as adding to the toxic burden at the dumps in Waihi. Then there are the fossil fuels used to dig the tunnels and the subsidence risks associated with underground mining. Collapse cannot be predicted. 

    Oceana argues there has to be a DOC access agreement and resource consents before it can start mining, but this is no comfort. DOC has access agreements for various levels of mining all over the conservation lands and the resource consent hearings are not level playing fields if you cannot afford expert testimony. 

    We have been holding this industry at bay on the peninsula for 40 years, with Waihi the company town we could not save from its pits and toxic dumps. But right now, with the price of gold on the rise, we need a modern government to stop the dinosaur polluters who use tonnes and tonnes of fossil fuels as they scrabble after the shiny metal. A modern government would be assisting the new technologies that can now extract gold and silver from landfills, cell phones and laptops. There are companies like Mint Innovation in Auckland that are working towards commercialising and franchising their minerals from e-waste processes. Jobs could be created if the government would help such innovations get off the ground. Given that we currently recycle about 1% of our e-waste, this is essential as well as progressive. 

    We are sick of the collusion with greed and the rhetoric of jobs from gold. The only town full of mines in our area has a very high social deprivation rating based on the last census. The miners say it’s the high number of retired people, but actually it’s poverty. 

    We are sick of trying to defend forests, mountains and water for the future generations while the governments of the day undermine the land. We will fight these proposals with all we are and all we have but we are warning the political parties: stop making promises and then breaking them, because it’s too hard. A recent survey showed 70% of citizens want a greener recovery from Covid; 30,000 people marched against mining DOC land in 2010. We do not forget what really matters and we do not forget broken promises. It’s not just about respecting an ancient frog and its habitat, it’s about respecting what we say we value – future generations. 

    Catherine Delahunty is the chairperson of the Coromandel Watchdog of Hauraki and a former Green MP.

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