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The polls paint a picture (Image: Tina Tiller)
The polls paint a picture (Image: Tina Tiller)

PoliticsFebruary 9, 2022

Polls set stage for a box-office year in New Zealand politics

The polls paint a picture (Image: Tina Tiller)
The polls paint a picture (Image: Tina Tiller)

The third major poll of the year has landed, and the lay of the land as we approach an election year is becoming clear. 

Call it a blessing, call it a curse, but the three-year term means an election is constantly lurking. In New Zealand it is always election year, the year after an election, or the year before an election. We’re in that last category now. Though we may not yet be halfway through the term, every time the words “next year’s election” are used, the minds of politicians will tighten in focus. And as the parliamentary year begins, three publicly released polls across recent weeks offer a useful summary of the terrain ahead. 

On Monday night the first Newshub/Reid Research poll for the year was published. That came a week or so after the first poll by Kantar (formerly Colmar Brunton) for 1News. On January 21, results from a Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union lobby group were revealed. Each of the polls surveyed 1,000 voters and between them covered the periods January 10-17 (Curia), January 22-26 (Kantar), and January 22 to February 4 (Reid), meaning they provide a good glimpse between them of the lay of the land. 

What do they say? The table below includes the change in support from each organisation’s previous poll. In the case of both the broadcasters, that was in November last year; for the TPU/Curia, it was mid-December.

The first and most obvious conclusion to draw is that Labour is not – barring some miracle – going to win another single-party majority. The 2022 result was an MMP aberration, born of (a) overwhelming popular backing for pandemic management and (b) overwhelming despair at the state of the main opposition party. To varying degrees, neither is true today. It is inconceivable at this point that either of the two biggest parties could govern alone. 

In that light, compare the sides of the house. On the above numbers, Labour and the Greens are sitting on 51.6%, a lead of about nine points over National and Act, which are on a combined 42.3%. A comfortable gap, but hardly a yawning chasm. It’s a lot less, certainly, than that 2020 blowout, when there was a distance of almost 25 points between the two blocs. 

The leaders

The challenge for the centre-right, therefore, is clear enough: add at least five percentage points, and take them off the centre-left, not each other. 

Some preliminary thoughts on the task ahead for the parties below, but first, let’s repeat the poll-average exercise in the preferred prime minister stakes. 

The big leaps in the Luxon change for the broadcast polls are explained by the fact that he was a backbench, relatively low-profile MP when they last surveyed, in November 2021. 

In her package on Sunday evening, Newshub political editor Jenna Lynch measured Luxon’s popularity today (17.8% picked him as preferred PM in the Reid poll) against his predecessors at the same early stage of their leaderships. She said:

When you compare Luxon's first preferred prime minister poll as leader with Judith Collins' first as leader back in late 2020 – 14.6% – and Simon Bridges' 9%, Luxon looks pretty good.

But prime minister Jacinda Ardern and former prime minister Sir John Key are the ones he'll want to be compared with. When Ardern took over as Labour leader, her preferred prime minister result was 26.3%, while Key debuted on 24%. 

As Luxon acknowledges, he faces a year of presenting himself to the electorate – a very long job interview – to hoist that. 

The Kantar/1News, meanwhile, had a headline-grabbing finding: that Luxon had beaten Ardern on net approval rating. His net approval was plus-22; hers plus-15. That’s a big boost to National spirits, but should come with a grain of salt – the numbers look slightly different when you add in those who didn’t take a view. Luxon’s numbers were 42% approve, 20% disapprove and 37% don’t know/refused to answer 37%. Ardern’s were, respectively, 52%, 37% and 11%. For Luxon, the coming months are a critical opportunity to win that approval from those who are on the fence.

Labour

In her “opening up” speech last week and her statement to parliament yesterday, Jacinda Ardern attempted to cast her gaze beyond the pandemic, with a laundry list of policy priorities and a lot of use of the word “future”. The election, very likely, hopefully, will be fought on alternative post-Covid prospectuses. But the virus is not going anywhere in a hurry. 

The government’s Covid management has attracted more criticism in the last weeks than probably ever before, particularly in relation to the steel ramparts of the MIQ system – an issue that found a casus Bellis and exploded – as well as the sluggish at best efforts to secure timely stores of rapid antigen tests. The government will hope the "opening up" announcement last week has taken some of the air out of the MIQ rancour, though Newshub polling was almost complete when it happen, so doesn't measure its impact. 

The broadly positive polling for Labour may also come down to the simple fact that, for most of us (or at least those who are vaccinated and not involved in sectors that depend on large gatherings or international tourists), it was a classic Aotearoa summer. We may get a shock when omicron seeps properly through the population, bringing risk to the unvaccinated and the vulnerable, applying pressure to the health system and disrupting work and home lives in a whole lot of ways. If the anecdata about people eschewing tests despite symptoms is true, by the way, then the government will need to move sooner rather than later to reduce isolation periods.

But the catastrophising in parts of the media, whether in the UK or in New Zealand, where one broadcast anchor yesterday lamented “scandal after scandal after scandal”, is just plain overblown, especially compared with the plight and popularity of so many of Ardern’s counterparts around the world.

For those demonstratively scratching their heads over the failure of Ardern and Labour’s numbers to nosedive, the most compelling answer lies in these two charts, which measure, first, Covid-19 deaths and, second, the severity of restrictions over the course of the pandemic. Neither will be enough to win the 2023 election, but they tell a story that is not easily forgotten. 

National

There was a discernible skip in the step of  National MPs when they gathered for their summer retreat in Queenstown, enabled presumably because they no longer have such stiff necks from constantly looking over their shoulders. Luxon may not be the finished article, but he is intelligent, relatively optimistic, and doesn’t walk around lighting fuses. His speech on day one at parliament yesterday was cogent, and he has assembled a capable team around him. As he is at pains to remind everyone, however, there is a long way to go, and – especially on his favoured issues like productivity and education – the bone could use some flesh. The task of the National Party is not just to hold the government to account, but to propose an alternative vision of this country so that come the next election New Zealand people will be able to see a National government in waiting, ready to go. Don’t take my word for it – those are the verbatim words of Luxon in the house yesterday.

Luxon has in recent times sought to stress that National isn’t just economically focused, but cares about people, about issues of social justice, equality and wellbeing. The international speaker at National’s getaway in Queenstown was David Cameron – or would have been, had he not had to withdraw after coming down with omicron. The choice was no accident, however: the former UK Tory prime minister sought to define himself as champion of Modern Compassionate Conservatism, the Big Society and climate-friendly husky-hugging. Instead, National MPs ended up with an address from Cameron’s once-right-hand man, George Osborne, who is best remembered for an altogether less cuddly advancement of austerity when he was in charge of the UK finances. 

And while that is absolutely not the image in which Luxon and Simon Bridges would wish to be cast, it remains, as ever, true that the National Party vote relies on putting back together a reputation for sound economic stewardship, particularly as the country deals with the rising cost of living. Luxon evinces an admiration for Barack Obama, but 2023 success is better defined by the message famously pasted on the wall of Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign HQ: It's the economy, stupid.

Act

If spinning is an important skill for government, then Act could not be more ready. In an email sent out after the Newshub poll on Monday night, Seymour told supporters that it “has Act on 8%, up on our 2020 election result”, before observing that “Act plus National are down four”. Curiously, there was no mention of Act’s number being cut in half.

Seymour is right, however, to emphasise that Act remains above its election result of 7.6%. Seymour and his indefatigable backroom team have successfully erased any shred of the long running impression that Act’s existence relied on the Epsom beneficence of National. For a good stretch there, David Seymour was single-handedly the most effective opposition party. 

And yet the rules of political gravity remain: if the trend continues, MPs will get ants in their pants. In that light, it was notable that Seymour in parliament yesterday chose to name-check and big-up each member of his caucus. The exercise went well, apart from when he introduced one of his MPs as “Simon Bridges”. 

Greens

The Greens’ support has so far proved more solid than anyone’s, sitting just under 10%, up from an election result just shy of 8%. That’s despite the sometimes uncomfortable place the party takes, sort of kind of maybe in government but also not. And despite the fact they've had a low profile in media of late. It’s a fair assumption that while Act picks up voters on the right dissatisfied with National, the Greens are scooping up voters who think Labour too centrist. Even if their MPs or members wanted to (they almost all don’t), the chances of the Green Party declaring that they could work in government with National ahead of the next election are close to zero.

In his speech to parliament yesterday, co-leader James Shaw hinted at some of the wealth transfer to the rich that emerged from the Covid response but stopped short of going directly there. He made a case, however, that the Greens’ mixture of environmental and social priorities stemmed from the same place. “The root cause of all of these crises ... is an economic system that privatises benefit and socialises cost. It will not be transformed by incremental action,” he said.

In the short term, Shaw’s priority will be getting as wide as possible cross-party support for the Emissions Reduction Plan, which was kicked from last year to this May. 

Te Pāti Māori 

As long as the Māori Party can secure an electorate seat, it’s tracking to bring two MPs at least to parliament again. As witnessed in the “divorce the royalty” call on Waitangi weekend, the party has found a fresh energy with Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer at the helm. It’s not at all out of the question that they could end up with an important, pivotal even, share of the house after the next election. 


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The pain at the pump is real (Image / Tina Tiller & Getty Images)
The pain at the pump is real (Image / Tina Tiller & Getty Images)

PoliticsFebruary 8, 2022

What’s up with the price of petrol?

The pain at the pump is real (Image / Tina Tiller & Getty Images)
The pain at the pump is real (Image / Tina Tiller & Getty Images)

Petrol prices are soaring to new highs across the country. Stewart Sowman-Lund finds out what – or who – is to blame.

I bought a Honda Fit because I thought it would be cheap and, for about two years, it was. Filling it up from nearly empty was about $60-$70 and as a student at the time, I was content with that. 

But since the middle of last year, around the time we went into lockdown, things have changed. Now, the closest petrol station to my house in east Auckland has 91 unleaded sitting around the $2.70 mark. According to Gaspy – an online tool that lists nearby petrol prices – I could maybe get it for around $2.50 if I headed out west but even then that is hardly cheap. And if I need to urgently fill up after work, the Mobil down the road from The Spinoff ‘s office is currently sitting on a chill $2.80. 

If you pay for premium fuel, like 98, you could easily be paying more than $3 per litre at the moment. 

It’s now about $100 to fill up my little hatchback and before the DMs flood in, I just can’t justify splashing out on an EV or even a hybrid right now. Petrol – like everything – seems to be getting more and more expensive. So what’s up with that?

The government’s pledge

In 2020, facing similar pressure over the growing pain at the pump, the government pledged to pass legislation that would increase competition and drive prices down. It was prompted by a Commerce Commission report into the fuel market and, according to Jacinda Ardern, would “break the stranglehold” enjoyed by big fuel companies. 

Then-commerce minister Kris Faafoi said the rise of discount retailers like Waitomo and Gull would help generate competition. “We have a local example here [in Wellington] where Waitomo petrol came to town earlier this year and they dropped their prices by 32c a litre and, mysteriously, 24 hours later their competitors did too,” said Faafoi. 

His other example: “When Gull came into Wellsford and prices dropped by 18c a litre.” 

Faafoi estimated that those price drops – of 18 to 32 cents per litre – would be replicated across the country.

I put this to Faafoi’s successor as commerce minister, David Clark. He told The Spinoff that prices dropped by around nine cents per litre on average as a result of government action in 2020. “This means a family filling a 50-litre tank with petrol once a fortnight would have saved around $117 a year,” he said. 

Those declines were brief, however. Prices have now climbed back up above where they were before the market study. “The government recognises that petrol prices are high,” Clark said. “However, this has largely been due to increases in global crude oil prices which have been experienced the world over. It is not necessarily indicative of retail fuel margins or anti-competitive behaviour in the sector, which was the focus of the Commerce Commission’s market study.”

Clark said the government was concerned with more than just petrol prices. The market study led to better accessibility of fuel terminals, he said, and saw Gull expand its services to the South Island. The Fuel Industry Act 2020 was also introduced, making it mandatory for retailers to clearly display fuel prices of all grades of fuel from this month. “This will help consumers make informed decisions about what price they’ll pay at the pump.”

Kris Faafoi speaks to media at parliament
Former minister of commerce, Kris Faafoi (Lynn Grieveson/Getty Images)

During an interview with Newshub’s AM this morning, prime minister Jacinda Ardern acknowledged that fuel “prices are high”. However, she said the government had not – and would not – make it worse. “Cutting healthy spending is not the way to resolve the issue of inflation that we are seeing many of our counterparts experiencing as well.”

What’s really to blame?

Provisional statistics from the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment, which routinely tracks petrol prices, would suggest that fuel companies might in fact be taking more than their fair share. That claim’s been roundly rejected by the retailers themselves, although MBIE’s stats show a steady rise in importer margins over the summer period.

AA’s fuel prices spokesperson Terry Collins says the real issue is the cost of bringing fuel into the country in the first place – and it’s not entirely fair to blame the government for prices rising, either. 

There are multiple elements involved. First, the price of getting the refined product – that’s the cost of oil, shipping and refining. “That’s an international price driven by supply and demand and availability,” said Collins. The second component is domestic tax and excise and levies, which make up about $1.25 of a litre of petrol. “The only bit that’s been moving is the ETS, which has increased from around eight or nine cents per litre to around 16 cents as the price of carbon goes up,” he said. 

The final component is the margin: that’s the profits for the wholesalers and retailers who have to store the fuel, transport it and then sell it. While margin may be nudging up, it really comes down to the international market: “We’ve had our highest landed prices in the past year. There’s an international energy shortage, prices are going up, and there’s a constraint on supply.”

As for the government’s desire to bring prices down by 32 cents a litre? “That ambition was fairly unrealistic,” Collins said. “There is not enough squeeze in the margins for the oil companies to give up 32 cents – that was never gonna happen.”

He added: “I don’t think it’s fair to say that the government’s responsible other than for the large tax and duty take that contributes to the price of petrol.” 

The political response

With the cost of living rising across the board, both National and Act have criticised the government for not doing enough to help. Act’s David Seymour said parents shouldn’t have to choose between swimming lessons for their kids and a tank of petrol. “Rents are up, mortgage rates are on the rise, the cost of food is up, petrol is up – but wages aren’t keeping up. It’s time Kiwi battlers got some relief.”

National’s Simeon Brown, the party’s transport spokesperson, took particular issue with Auckland petrol prices due to the added regional fuel tax. Recent media reports revealed that only half of the money recouped by that tax has been spent on the intended transport projects. “The regional fuel tax should be scrapped given the revenue isn’t being used,” said Brown. “This will also benefit Aucklanders who are hurting from the cost of rapidly increasing fuel prices and high inflation.”

With the fuel tax set to stay, and fuel excise duties not due to be reviewed until July next year, prices at the pump are expected to remain volatile over the coming months. So maybe it’s time to buy a scooter?

This article was updated at 9.30am with comment from prime minister Jacinda Ardern.


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