Joe Biden, then vice president, experiences a traditional Māori welcome with Kaumatua Lewis Moeau at Government House on July 21, 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand (Photo: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
Joe Biden, then vice president, experiences a traditional Māori welcome with Kaumatua Lewis Moeau at Government House on July 21, 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand (Photo: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)

PoliticsNovember 10, 2020

What a Biden presidency could mean for US-New Zealand relations

Guest writer
Joe Biden, then vice president, experiences a traditional Māori welcome with Kaumatua Lewis Moeau at Government House on July 21, 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand (Photo: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
Joe Biden, then vice president, experiences a traditional Māori welcome with Kaumatua Lewis Moeau at Government House on July 21, 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand (Photo: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)

From re-engaging with the Paris Agreement to reducing tensions with China, there are a number of things New Zealand will be hoping to see from the US under a President Joe Biden, writes Stephen Jacobi.

The American people have spoken. America’s “better angels” have prevailed. We all hope for better times ahead, but, while there is ample scope to expand co-operation with a Biden Administration in the White House, the future is unlikely to be all plain sailing.

The state of the relationship

The importance of the United States in international affairs is such that it is in New Zealand’s interest to co-operate with whoever occupies the White House. The US-New Zealand relationship has continued to expand over the last four years. High-level contacts have continued, although the prime minister herself has not yet made the customary visit to Washington. Security and defence relations are closer now than at any other time. New Zealand and the US continue to be “very, very, very good friends”.

Trade has flourished, even in the absence of a free trade agreement. Consumer demand for our products probably increased as a result of the economic stimulus flowing from the Trump Administration’s tax cuts. Even Covid-19 has not made a dent in the trade figures. True, the Administration disappointed us (and this writer in particular) on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and continues to apply tariffs on our steel and aluminium exports, but with the Kiwi Act it gave us visas for investors and entrepreneurs.

New Zealand has not been immune from the fallout from the US-China trade war which has cast a shadow over the global economy. We have also been concerned about US policies towards the World Trade Organisation (WTO), as well as multilateralism more generally, including, most importantly, withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The approach to Iran and North Korea has been perplexing. Co-operation in science, technology and education have all advanced, and our space co-operation has literally blasted off.

What do we want at this point?

There are a number of things that the Ardern government might like to see from the US under a Biden Presidency, including:

  • Re-engagement in multilateral institutions, including the Paris Agreement and the WTO
  • Reduction of tension with China and re-alignment with Asia more generally
  • Partnership on global political, economic and environmental issues affecting us both
  • Openness towards trade and investment.

Some of these seem assured given the Biden/Harris policy pronouncements, while others will take time to eventuate: the processes required to get a new administration up and running are labyrinthine by New Zealand standards. It will take time to re-orient the ship of American policy. New Zealand will need to take its turn, although our chairing of APEC in 2021 will give us some useful early opportunities to engage.

What about trade?

We should not expect any early moves towards joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). There are competing views on trade and president-elect Biden cannot be expected to want to disturb the Sandernistas in his party, at least not straightaway.

A bilateral FTA is no more likely in our view. We have been down this path before, with both Republican and Democrat Administrations. Somehow, no matter the quality of our friendship, we can never get the right conditions to allow an FTA to proceed. That’s because we offer the Americans only a small market and our asks of the US are not without consequence domestically. You only have to look at the importance of Wisconsin in the recent election to see that no favours affecting American dairy farmers are likely to be done for New Zealand. The whole strategy with TPP – now CPTPP – was that the prospect of a bigger deal might serve to outweigh these domestic concerns. As it turned out, TPP delivered only marginal agricultural market access and the Obama Administration was unable to get it passed through Congress.

The US may take a less aggressive stance on the WTO and New Zealand and the US could well co-operate on reforms aimed at improving the dispute settlement system rather than seeking to undermine it. A return of US global leadership on trade is to be welcomed by New Zealand. The multilateral trading system was after all one which the US helped build.

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Another area we can expect some welcome evolution in policy is in relation to China. Although the Trump Administration’s tariffs have undeniably hurt America more than China, the perception of China as a strategic competitor cuts across the political divide. We would expect a Biden Administration to continue to contest China’s economic, political and technological rise, but the policy could be pursued in a less confrontational way. That may not however lessen demands being made of very good friends like New Zealand.

What’s next?

New Zealand and the United States have many shared interests, but America remains very divided, in the grip of a health and economic crisis and an “America first” movement has not gone away. New Zealand has long pursued an independent foreign policy, but we value opportunities to work together. The relationship will continue to require close attention in the years ahead from Ardern, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Trade Minister Damien O’Connor.

Stephen Jacobi is executive director of the NZ International Business Forum and former executive director of the NZ US Council.

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Ashley Bloomfield finishes as director general of health at the end of July. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
Ashley Bloomfield finishes as director general of health at the end of July. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

PoliticsNovember 9, 2020

Bloomfield says no failure as Covid-19 community cases from the border spread

Contributing writer
Ashley Bloomfield finishes as director general of health at the end of July. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
Ashley Bloomfield finishes as director general of health at the end of July. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

More and more community cases linked to the border have been detected in recent days, first in Christchurch, then in Auckland, and now in Wellington. Justin Giovannetti looks at what’s happening.

Community cases of Covid-19 linked to quarantine facilities have been reported in New Zealand’s three largest cities over the past week, but director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield says the “incursions” don’t signal failure.

The latest two cases have been linked to the defence force, with a worker at Auckland’s main quarantine facility becoming infected with the virus from recent arrivals and passing it on to a civilian defence worker based in Wellington.

Health officials have so far identified 80 close contacts of the two defence workers, with 57 having returned a negative result so far. Bloomfield says it’ll be clear in the next 24-48 hours whether the newly minted November quarantine cluster has been contained.

Two health workers in Christchurch also contracted the virus last week at a quarantine centre at the Sudima hotel that welcomed hundreds of Russian fishermen. Covid-19 was detected in 31 of the 235 mariners. None of the close contacts of those workers have yet to test positive.

As long as the country’s systems continue to detect the virus and quickly trace contacts, these recent cases aren’t failures, Bloomfield told reporters today in Wellington. There have now been seven community cases of Covid-19 detected in the country that came through New Zealand’s border system.

“We know that there will be, and expect that despite all our precautions, be the odd incursion. That’s why we have a series of systems in place, not only to detect it early but to follow up quickly. And you’ve seen with all our recent border incursions we’ve been able to get around them quickly and that’s our aim here,” said Bloomfield.

While defence staff in quarantine facilities have little access to patients, they do interact with them when they either go out for exercise or to smoke. The Wellington case was in Auckland for a meeting with the infected worker. They got onto a plane and headed back to the capital afterwards, testing positive in the following days. The government says that workers at border facilities will now handle most of their external meetings via Zoom.

A casual contact who was on the Wellington-based worker’s flight home but wasn’t seated near them currently feels unwell and has been tested, with results expected in the next day. That person attended a recent meeting in Kawhia with people from Ōtorohanga College. All are now keeping track of their symptoms.

There could be more changes to come at border facilities, according to Bloomfield. As the country logs more cases of the virus, it’s possible that researchers conclude there is “a higher risk of aerosolised virus” than previously thought, he said. That could mean that workers at quarantine facilities could soon wear heavier duty N95 masks during all their interactions with returnees.

Nearly all the previous cases that have been detected slipping through the border, including health workers and maintenance staff, have been stopped after infecting only one or two more people. That includes infected people that have gone to gym classes and shopping at grocery stores while unwittingly carrying the virus.

The recent uptick in cases points in part to the large number of Covid-positive returnees. In recent weeks New Zealand has had about 75 cases held in quarantine facilities who were detected in managed isolation. During the winter, when the global case level was much lower, the number of cases in quarantine hovered around a much more manageable 20.

North America and Europe are now in the midst of second waves of Covid-19 that are approaching or already dwarf the first waves seen in the northern hemisphere’s spring. The United States has been reporting over 125,000 new cases in recent days, shattering previous records. In Canada, contact tracing has been abandoned in parts of the country as health services have been overwhelmed. Large swaths of Europe are in nationwide lockdowns and governments are trying to figure out how to save Christmas as infection numbers climb.

The US has now surpassed 10 million cases of the virus as global cases have topped 50 million.

The risk for New Zealand continues to be in returnees. According to Bloomfield though, that risk is low despite nearly 75,000 arrivals in recent months interacting with thousands of workers at facilities.

The headquarters of New Zealand’s defence force is now closed and will remain so for days as it is cleaned. Thousands of defence personnel are working from home and dozens are monitoring themselves for symptoms of Covid-19.

There are steps that New Zealanders can take to stay safe, according to the government, including continuing to use the Covid-19 tracing app. Bloomfield compared it to a seatbelt in a car: you use it just in case something happens. “You never know when or where that information will be useful,” he said of the app. Also, wear a mask on transit and on airplanes. Few people, if anyone, on the Wellington case’s flight were wearing masks. Had they done so, their risk of catching the virus would be substantially lower.

The country recorded four more cases in managed-isolation today in returnees from Austria, Dubai and Qatar.

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