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Rising case numbers mean those who test positive may soon be asked to isolate at home rather than go into an MIQ facility (Photo: Phil Walter/Getty Images)
Rising case numbers mean those who test positive may soon be asked to isolate at home rather than go into an MIQ facility (Photo: Phil Walter/Getty Images)

PoliticsOctober 14, 2021

100-plus daily Covid cases on the cards for Auckland within two weeks

Rising case numbers mean those who test positive may soon be asked to isolate at home rather than go into an MIQ facility (Photo: Phil Walter/Getty Images)
Rising case numbers mean those who test positive may soon be asked to isolate at home rather than go into an MIQ facility (Photo: Phil Walter/Getty Images)

The current delta reproduction rate will see three-figure daily numbers soon. That presents a challenge for hospitals. Without high compliance and vaccination rates, it could soon lead to overrun contact tracing systems and an even steeper rise.  

The 1pm briefing yesterday brought sobering, if unsurprising, confirmation of the trajectory of the delta outbreak. There were 75 cases across the previous fortnight that remained unlinked – that is, no one could say from whom they caught the virus. 

While unanswered questions about Covid’s reach in Northland and parts of Waikato meant level three restrictions would be extended, in both regions the ambition is still to extinguish every ember in the short term. Not so Auckland. “Covid-19 is spreading in Auckland,” said the minister overseeing the response, Chris Hipkins. “And the number of locations we’re seeing cases pop up is increasing.” 

Auckland’s reproduction number, Hipkins confirmed, sits around 1.2-1.3. That means that, between them, every four people who are positive will pass Covid on to another five.

With those increasing case numbers, so increases the total number of “active cases”. (Ten days after symptoms started and when there have been no symptoms for 72 hours, a case is judged “recovered”.)

Here’s the situation from the last couple of weeks:


It’s no wonder, therefore, that Hipkins said yesterday the capacity of quarantine facilities to house people who had been infected would soon reach breaking point, and plans were being explored to allow home isolation for people who had tested positive. 

“As we are expecting to see the number of cases increasing, the sustainability of putting everybody who is a positive case into MIQ starts to seriously be drawn into question. We have been working for some time now on a home isolation model for positive cases.” 

Of the increasing case count, he said: “There is no question. We’re going into a period where we are likely to see quite significant growth in cases.” 

Significant growth. What does that mean? I asked Shaun Hendy, who has led modelling work at Te Pūnaha Matati, what we might be looking at in Auckland a couple of weeks from now, based on a reproduction rate of 1.25. On that curve, Auckland could expect to see daily case counts of greater than 100 in a fortnight’s time, he said. He stressed, however, echoing Hipkins, that “vaccinations should take the edge off that if we can keep the social distancing and contact tracing at the same levels”.

The obverse is just as true, of course. Cabinet will decide on Monday whether to move Auckland to the second step of the level three “road map”, which would see retail welcome back customers, pools, libraries and museums reopen, and outdoor gathering limits increase to 25. All would come with distancing and mask requirements, but equally carry increased risks.

There is obvious pressure building, meanwhile, on contact tracing. 

“Unfortunately, the trends in the number of active contacts being managed suggest contact tracing is going to be increasingly challenging,” said Matthew Parry, a senior lecturer in statistics at the University of Otago, in comments to the Science Media Centre. “Currently, the number of active contacts being managed is doubling every eight to nine days, which is faster than the growth in the number of new cases.”

Speaking yesterday on the new cases that were unlinked, Bloomfield said, “interviews on many of these are still to start". That was by way of indicating that the unlinked number might drop, but it underscored, too, the challenges contact-tracing teams contend with. The Ministry of Health position is that as many as 6,000 contacts can be traced a day under surge protocols; as Marc Daalder has pointed out, at current rates of tracing, the seams would start to split at 200 new cases a day. It is made all the more difficult when your new positive cases include people who live on society's margins, and sometimes are reluctant, or even stonewall, anyone official asking them questions.

Contact tracers are facing a powerful headwind, and as heroically as they might run into that gale, even running to stay in the same spot is a stretch. Any lag in contact tracing is both a symptom of, and an exacerbating factor in, higher daily case numbers. It makes officials’ reported refusal to expand contact-tracing capacity even more perplexing. 

All these numbers, of course, lead inexorably towards compounded pressure on our health system, where they are measured in hospitalisations, overwhelmed intensive care units and deaths. Asked last night what sort of new case tally would force Middlemore Hospital into surge mode, shuttling Covid patients between hospitals and redeploying resources needed elsewhere, Gary Jackson, director of population health at Counties Manukau Health, said this:  "I think we're getting worried if it's above 100 cases per day."

Image: Tina Tiller
Image: Tina Tiller

OPINIONPoliticsOctober 13, 2021

A just transition for workers requires more than what’s in this climate plan

Image: Tina Tiller
Image: Tina Tiller

This week’s discussion document on New Zealand’s emissions reduction plan sets a low bar, then fails to clear it, argues Richard Wagstaff, president of the Council of Trade Unions.

When the prime minister declared that acting on climate change was our generation’s nuclear free moment, she struck a chord with New Zealanders.

Most of us are rightly proud of our stand against nuclear weapons and remember the decisive leadership that prime minister David Lange showed in that moment.

By choosing that historical comparison, Jacinda Ardern connected to a sense of hope that New Zealand could show global leadership on climate action. That we could make a difference in the face of the seemingly overwhelming threat that climate change poses to our way of life, just as we previously made a difference in standing against nuclear weapons.

The Council of Trade Unions has welcomed Ardern’s commitment to act on climate change and have been reassured by her government’s promise of a just transition to a low emissions economy.

The discussion document on the emissions reduction plan released this week is the first stage in the government’s response to the Climate Change Commission’s advice. It does two things:

First, it confirms the government’s overall policy direction on reducing emissions. This includes a welcome signal of intent to adopt carbon emissions budgets that are in line with the commission’s advice.

Second, the discussion document is a chance for ministers and their officials to showcase their detailed proposals on how they would deliver the emissions reductions needed, and make good on the promise of a just transition. On this measure, the document falls short. It shows a gap between the government’s aspiration for a just transition to low emissions and the current state of the plans for delivery.

The report unveils a first proposed carbon budget for 2022 to 2025 of 73 megatonne equivalent of carbon dioxide (MtCO2e) a year. This compares to recent emission levels of 79 Mt in 2018. A quick calculation shows that across the first four-year budget this would require 24 Mt of emission reductions.

Remarkably, the consultation document claims that only 7.7 Mt of reductions are needed over the period to 2025. This claim is hard to test, as it is only supported by a footnote:

“This figure is officials’ current best estimate based on latest projections and other information, including assuming the Marsden Point oil refinery converts to an import only terminal as expected around 2022.”

Closing the Marsden refinery would not reduce global emissions, but only shift those emissions outside New Zealand’s borders, at the cost of local jobs. This is not an environmentally or economically sustainable approach to emission reductions.

Having set the low bar of 7.7 MtCO2e emission reductions for 2022-25, the document then fails to clear it, proposing only between 2.6 and 5.6 Mt in reductions. Of the 76 “strategies and policies” set out in the report, there are more proposals relating to fluorinated gases (2.5% of emissions) than there are relating to agriculture (48% of emissions).

The document commits to a Tiriti-based partnership with Māori, but with little detail on how this engagement will be meaningful. It also makes inadequate reference to working with Pacific communities.

The section of the document on an “equitable transitions strategy” falls short of the Climate Change Commission’s advice and the government’s public commitments to lead a just transition that involves working people and their unions. While there are mentions of equity, distributional effects, and employment effects, these are not quantified and there is little in the way of plans to improve outcomes. It proposes developing an equitable transition strategy by 2025 – too late to meet working people’s need for engagement and support from the beginning of the process. Action on this needs to start today.

The just transition approach and strategy will need to evolve, but it should do so on the foundation of partnership with working people, employers, Māori, Pacific people and other affected communities.

Unions as the organised voice of working people have already begun engaging with our members on what a just transition looks like. We’ve used this to inform our proposals to the government and our discussions with employers. We’ve said that the most immediate requirements for a just transition are good engagement with working people and communities; active employment and training support through transition; and developing criteria for further investment that will support good employment outcomes and community wellbeing.

Government action is essential for climate action. To make a just transition, we need a capable and engaged state. We need a public sector that takes a lead on decarbonisation and provides the essential services that communities in transition need to support their wellbeing.

We know that government at the highest levels is committed to climate action and a just transition. Now we need a plan that matches those commitments.