The prime minister will be relieved after ‘near hysterical’ flurry, despite a new survey pointing to a hung parliament.
Less than a fortnight after a horror poll put National on 28.4% and triggered a maelstrom of speculation about Christopher Luxon’s future, new numbers from Talbot Mills deliver some succour for the prime minister. The new survey – prepared for clients and viewed by the Spinoff – has National on 32%.
Though the party remains three points behind Labour and some distance from a position where it can view November’s election with great confidence, it will bring some relief: a result close to the Curia poll of early March would almost certainly have reignited conjecture about Luxon’s future.
Labour is on 35%, unchanged from a month before. National’s 32% is up one point. The Greens are up one to 11% and NZ First’s strong run continues, with a two-point gain to 11%. ACT is down one to 7%. Te Pāti Māori (TPM) is on 1.7% and Opportunity (previously TOP) are on 2.4%.
Overlaid on to parliament, the results would create a hung parliament, with both left and right blocs taking 61 seats in a 122-seat parliament. That is predicated, however, on TPM retaining four electorate seats; were they unable to do so, the current three-party coalition would have enough seats to command a majority, albeit by a hair’s breadth.
The poll, produced by Talbot Mills for Anacta Consulting, went into the field on March 2, the day that Luxon struggled to articulate New Zealand’s position on the Iran war in a series of media appearances and ran through to March 12, encompassing the emergence of economic risks created as a fallout of the attacks. The Curia poll, for the Taxpayers Union, was published on March 6.
Talbot Mills commentary notes that the result “may be some solace for the government and prime minister after being pounded by near hysterical analysis of the latest Curia poll. The message that we are looking at a very close election has been locked in for at least two years”.
On another important metric, 46% believe the country is heading in the right direction, a nose ahead of the 44% who think it’s heading the wrong way. On the state of the economy, 32% reckon it’s good or excellent and 67% say it looks not good or poor.
In the preferred prime minister stakes, Chris Hipkins leads with 26%, up a point from a month earlier. (The poll pre-dates the headlines that followed his ex-wife’s social media post.) Luxon is on 22%, also up a point. Winston Peters adds a point to his score, too, with 13% picking him as preferred PM, his highest rating in the monthly tracker for six years. Chlöe Swarbrick and David Seymour each drop a point, to 8% and 6% respectively.
Apart from anything else, these two latest polls underline that the pollsters are not carrying water for any political paymasters. Curia separately undertakes polling for National and Talbot Mills for Labour.
The new poll surveyed 1,059 people and has a margin of error of 3.1%.
