The season of electoral maths continues as number crunching of past special vote tallies suggest Te Pāti Māori could add a fifth seat to its election haul, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.
Youngest new MP stops by to see great, great, great, great grandfather
New Zealand’s youngest new MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke arrived in Wellington, and one of her first stops was a wall of photos that hangs in parliament. Maipi-Clarke’s great, great, great, great grandfather Wiremu Katene, served in the House of Representatives, and she stopped by to acknowledge him. Maipi-Clarke won the Hauraki-Waikato seat and, alongside Tākuta Ferris, who won Te Tai Tonga and Te Pāti Maori (TPM) co-leaders Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi, will make up the party’s contingent in the 54th parliament of New Zealand. Katene served in the fifth parliament between 1871 and 1875 and again in the ninth parliament in 1887. The Spinoff’s Tommy de Silva provides an introduction to both Maipi-Clarke and Ferris.
TPM campaign was ‘intentional from the get-go’
It’s fair to say that TPM’s success surprised people but was perhaps less surprising to the party, its volunteers and supporters. Mihingarangi Forbes spoke to party president John Tamihere in the latest episode of Mata, who said the campaign was intentional from the get-go. It’s a crude, slightly unformed parallel to draw, but for me, it’s prompted memories of the Covid vaccination era. As many looked to highly visible, centralised national campaigns to lift vaccination rates, all eyes on central government, it turned out one of the most effective approaches was a far less visible effort. By now, most people should be familiar with the success of TPM’s candidates in four of the seven Māori seats. Based on provisional results, the party has also, in all instances, doubled its share of the party vote on 2020 election results. Turnout looks to have been lower, which may be yet another example of the story that’s shaping up about Labour voters staying home.
Will Winston Peters and NZ First be needed to form a government?
As Christopher Luxon said on Tuesday, pressed once again to shed some light on coalition negotiations in this post-election information vacuum, many people will be “interviewing their typewriters” at the moment. I think it’s evident to all by now that election limbos breed speculation and guessing games. As I set out to type “that may change after the specials” yet again, some people with far better data skills and longer memories than I have had a crack at answering the immutable question MMP elections in New Zealand pose: will Winston Peters and NZ First be needed to form a government? The Herald’s Chris Knox and Julia Gabel have not only presented data about the impact of special votes on past elections but created an interactive tool where anyone can have a go at answering the NZ First question. You have to take a punt on how many electorate seats you think Te Pāti Māori will get and how many special votes there will be. The question that precedes the NZ first question is whether TPM will pick up another electorate seat once special votes are counted and final results are announced on November 3. There were 39,938 special votes cast in the Māori electorates in 2020.
Te Tai Tokerau and Tāmaki Makaurau in play for TPM
The seats in play for TPM are Te Tai Tokerau and Tāmaki Makaurau, where just 400 or so votes separate Labour and TPM candidates. Graeme Edgeler has had a go at looking at those seats and the possibility that Te Pāti Māori may cause an overhang by gaining an extra seat and change the overall shape of parliament. As he notes, Te Pāti Māori did 66% better on special votes in 2020. As Mihingarangi Forbes notes in that episode of Mata, most parties are talking up their special vote prospects. Edgeler says he is making no predictions, and nor am I. Fifteen days to go, and we can all down tools on the guessing games and the graphs!