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Fruit in open-top punnets (Photo: Supplied)
Fruit in open-top punnets (Photo: Supplied)

The BulletinSeptember 24, 2020

The Bulletin: Who will pick the fruit?

Fruit in open-top punnets (Photo: Supplied)
Fruit in open-top punnets (Photo: Supplied)

Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Horticulture industry facing labour crisis, details of new cases spark concern, and Canterbury candidate under fire for local government record.

Fears are growing that fruit will simply rot on the vine this season, because nobody will be there to pick it. Plenty of this sort of horticultural work is done by people on the Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) work scheme, who come from overseas. But as Radio NZ reports, even with changes made to immigration policy, growers associations fear that only around 20% of the required workforce will be allowed in.

The issue is likely to start really hurting growers next month, when strawberries are ready to be picked. One News had a story about the country’s leading strawberry grower, who said New Zealanders weren’t going for the jobs, which are physically intensive and difficult, and that the government was being inflexible on allowing Samoan workers through. She said consumers would see high prices, the packhouses wouldn’t have jobs, and much of the crop would be lost. But a sharp eyed twitter user spotted the job listing, and noticed a pertinent detail: “Most of the work available is paid by bonus piecerate – where you are required to produce enough to earn at least the current minimum wage to retain your position.” Those are pretty tough conditions for someone to go out of their way to work under.

It’s possible that supply and demand will kick in, and growers will simply have to pay more for scarcer labour. But as Stuff reports, desperation is starting to set in. Even with the story quoting rates of $25-27 an hour (which is a suspiciously high rate compared to the current listings on the Backpackers Job board) other options are being seriously considered. Among them – tertiary students on summer break, or prisoners on day-release. Australia is having similar problems, and even more punitive solutions are being put forward, like hoping that a cut in the Jobseeker benefit will result in people forced out of work in other areas coming forward.

Meanwhile on the subject of immigration, this is an interesting piece about how it has entirely disappeared from the election campaign. As Newsroom’s Dileepa Fonseka writes, there really is no shortage of issues that could be debated right now, even with the borders largely closed. This includes how to help the group of out of work migrants who can’t either leave or get new jobs.


Three new community Covid-19 cases were announced yesterday, causing consternation that a new cluster was emerging. Our live updates has more detail on them, but in brief: Two of the cases were on the same charter flight as the ‘long incubator’ (the guy who only tested positive after coming out of managed isolation) and the third was a household contact of the two on the flight. The concern is that the trio only started self-isolating recently, after possibly being in Auckland while infected for several days.


Some curious coverage from local media of National’s Banks Peninsula candidate Catherine Chu: In the last week The Press has done stories about her not seeming to be across her portfolio as a DHB member, and followed it up with a piece about her not showing up to remotely as many Council briefings (which she also sits on) as her colleagues. Chu herself said the briefings weren’t necessarily the only way of learning about issues, and she spent her time in the community and talking to businesses. The Banks Peninsula seat itself is an open one, being made up in large part of the now disestablished Port Hills electorate, held by the retiring Ruth Dyson.


Remember yesterday when I said the Green party weren’t being clear on their coalition bottom lines? Well, MP Julie Anne Genter has told a business audience that actually their wealth tax policy, aimed at the wealthiest 6% of the country, would be a bottom line, reports the NZ Herald. Labour’s revenue spokesperson Stuart Nash immediately ruled it out, but given increasing inequality it could actually turn out to be an unexpectedly popular policy. Meanwhile speaking of wealth, Michael Andrew has looked into the unstoppable progress of the housing market, which is marching ever-upwards despite every other indicator going backwards.


The Reserve Bank is looking at introducing a ‘Funding for Lending’ programme earlier than expected, reports Interest’s Jenée Tibshraeny. The idea behind that is that the Reserve Bank would give commercial banks money at very low rates, on the proviso that those banks then lent it out to businesses. Initially the consideration had been for an FLP programme some time next year, to be coupled with a negative official cash rate, but now the FLP is looking more like a project for the end of this year.


We’ll have more feedback on the Ardern vs Collins debate further down the page, but in the meantime, a pertinent bit of criticism. Leonie Hayden has pointed out how there was basically no mention of te ao Māori throughout – a shameful erasure given there are so many issues worth canvassing our potential PMs on. She recommended that people should watch the Māori electorate debates currently being rolled out by The Hui – strongly agree on that.

If you want even more debate reaction, have a listen to the latest episode of Gone By Lunchtime. And you’re definitely going to want to watch this from Jose Barbosa, who managed to sum the debate up in a brilliant two and a half minute video.


A quick correction after an early morning brain-melt: This piece by Robin Martin shared in yesterday’s Bulletin was of course published not on Stuff, but on Radio NZ, where Robin Martin actually works.


Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Drop us a line at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

Image: The Spinoff/RNZ

Right now on The Spinoff: Stewart Sowman-Lund dives into the Act party list to see who might be joining David Seymour in the next parliament. Hayden Donnell has a devastating analysis of what Labour is and isn’t actually doing with its incredible popularity. Robyn Hunt criticises the assisted dying referendum, in light of the impact it could have on an already stretched health system and the disabled. Matthew McAuley writes about a new series exploring the te reo journeys of three New Zealanders. There’s a curious piece from Ngā Taonga, who are hunting for a few classic old NZ films that appear to have disappeared without trace.

And it’s time to introduce an important new project – the 100 Year Forecast. That will be an interactive climate series that takes what we know about the science, and applies it to what it will mean for how we live over the next century.


I asked for a bit of feedback yesterday on the TVNZ debate, which was watched by more than a million people. That’s kind of why it was such an important moment – almost no other political event this year will have that kind of audience. And I got that feedback loud and clear – my inbox is absolutely groaning under the weight of it all, which is a very nice problem to have. I’ve now read it all – if I haven’t responded, my apologies – and this is a flavour of what you all had to say.

Some didn’t really see anything new in it all. Jerram said “neither party promoted anything mind blowingly inspirational or unexpected.” Lynn said it was predictable, and that she’d “much prefer good hard-hitting interviews of candidates individually. That way they would be asked really relevant questions on their past performance, their new policies, and how they would implement them.”

A few people found a line to dislike from either leader, which was defining. For Michal, it was Collins saying she owned rental property in a trust. “That was a gotcha moment for me. Claiming to represent the world of ‘ordinary kiwis ‘ she blew her credibility.” Kathryn meanwhile thought that Ardern failed to defend her governing record, “particularly in JAs own portfolio of child poverty. It was interesting that JA couldn’t control the narrative as she normally does.” And Ray said “the PM kept saying the government had a plan but nobody knows what it is.

For Collins, some glimpsed the familiar face of a former PM. Marguerite said “Collins has acquired Muldoon’s characteristic raised cheekbone sneer, frequently in response to anything Adern said. Probably not the only thing she’s inherited from him?” It’s not a bad comparison, regardless of whether you see either or both in a positive or negative light. For quite a few responders, the performance of Collins looked simply unpleasant rather than strong.

Many of you disagreed with the general punditry consensus, which was that Collins came out on top. James gave a good example of that – “when the pundits said Jacinda had underperformed and Judith had come out impressively, we wondered if they’d been watching the same debate. It made us wonder if those pundits, who follow these leaders so closely, are so used to seeing Judith perform so poorly and Jacinda so well, that this felt like an improvement for Judith and a bad night for Jacinda.” On the punditry, Karen said “clearly most of them are still impressed by the adversarial, point scoring style of Judith Collins – I believe most of us out here in the viewing public have moved on from that.” On balance, the clear majority of responders said they preferred Ardern’s performance, though I’d hesitate to call that a scientific sample.

There was some criticism of the moderation of John Campbell. It’s a tricky one, because his interview style involves setting out context and making it really clear what his question is driving at. But as Min put it, “it would be interesting to see how many minutes each the 3 participants actually spoke. I would expect John Campbell would be way out front.”

And finally, Catherine had a response to it all which I’m sure many of the 1.1 million viewers shared. “It was boring and I turned it off at 8pm.” Alison had a similar reaction – “won’t be watching the next two – life is too short!” Here’s hoping you both make it out to see your local candidates debate each other at least.


In sport today, a cool piece about what an elite bunch of martial artists did to get through Auckland’s level three lockdown. The Project visited City Kickboxing (the gym that is currently producing some of the best UFC fighters in the world) to talk about how when L3 was announced, a whole bunch of them just moved in, beds and all, and just trained constantly. If that sounds like your idea of hell, well, it was for some of the fighters too by the looks of it.


That’s it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme

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Judith Collins watches Jacinda Ardern during the first TV debate of the campaign (Getty Images)
Judith Collins watches Jacinda Ardern during the first TV debate of the campaign (Getty Images)

The BulletinSeptember 23, 2020

The Bulletin: Poll, debate set tone for the campaign

Judith Collins watches Jacinda Ardern during the first TV debate of the campaign (Getty Images)
Judith Collins watches Jacinda Ardern during the first TV debate of the campaign (Getty Images)

Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Politics nerds rejoice with both a poll and a debate, a remarkable story of a high finance world crashing down, and travel agent industry up against it.

The top-line figure is clear – Labour still has a massive poll lead over National, more than a month after the last one was taken. But as the latest One News Colmar Brunton survey shows, both major parties have taken a bit of a hit, with minor parties capitalising. Labour is down five points to 48%, and National is down one point to 31%, which is still the sort of massive gap that will be hard to pull back with just under a month to go. In terms of the preferred PM stakes, well, you can probably guess that Ardern is still miles ahead of Collins.

However, Act and the Greens both appear to be gaining over the campaign. Act has surged two points to 7%, which if that holds will be among their best ever election results. And the Greens are up a point to 6%, giving them a narrow but crucial buffer against the risk of dropping under the MMP threshold. NZ First meanwhile are languishing on 2%, equal with the New Conservatives. The Opportunities Party and Advance NZ have both gone up a point to 1%, where the Māori Party are also sitting. In terms of the complexion of parliament, Labour would be in a position to govern alone, but would potentially be able to call on the Greens in a pinch. An interesting detail: 14% of those surveyed either didn’t yet know who they’d be voting for, or refused to answer. Those aren’t necessarily the sort of numbers that could change the outcome, but depending on how they break it could certainly change the makeup of parliament.

For the New Conservatives and TOP, the result isn’t quite enough to get them into the minor party debate, which will be bitterly disappointing. That required a poll result of 3%, or an MP in parliament over either of the last two terms. It means that debate will be contested by NZ First, the Greens, Act, the Māori Party, and Advance NZ (who qualify through former National MP Jami-Lee Ross.)

As for the two major party leaders, they faced off in their first TV debate last night, moderated by John Campbell. We’ve got a range of verdicts on who had the better of the exchanges, and to what degree. The consensus among pundits seems to be that basically Collins outperformed both expectations and Ardern herself. Politik reckoned Ardern was “curiously subdued” – a phrase that came up a lot about the Labour leader. Three out of four NZ Herald political writers called it for Collins. And Stuff’s Luke Malpass suggested that while Ardern might have lost, Collins didn’t really do much to win over potential voters either. We’ll have more to come on all of this, with an episode of Gone By Lunchtime being recorded early this morning. Of course, all of these takes are from people who think about politics all day every day, so if you watched the debate and aren’t normally a particularly political person, I’d love to hear your impressions of it – thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

Meanwhile a whole other debate was taking place last night in Queenstown. Radio NZ’s Jo Moir was there to see the five finance spokespeople from each party go at each other, describing it as more of a brawl than a debate at times. Based on crowd reaction, she called this one a win for Act leader David Seymour, who is on a bit of a roll at the moment.


Here’s a remarkable story of a world of high finance coming crashing down around the ears of someone at the heart of it: The NZ Herald’s (paywalled) Matt Nippert and Kurt Bayer have looked into the Serious Fraud Office investigation around Penrich Capital, founded by Kelly Tonkin, who now appears to have basically nothing to his name. But the alleged fraud covers places all over the world, and the Cayman Islands, and could eventually be considered as even bigger than the Ross Asset Management case, which is the largest ever of its type in New Zealand.


The travel agent industry is right up against it right now, as two recently published pieces show. Business Desk’s (paywalled) Rebecca Stevenson has reported on pessimism setting in for House of Travel, which is finding much less joy in the domestic tourism boom – a crushing setback after doing record business last year. And Checkpoint revealed last night the results of an initial Deloitte report into STA travel, which appears to have used customer deposits for cancelled trips to cover wages and rent, before plunging into insolvency.


A good piece on an area of regional New Zealand where things aren’t as economically dire as they could be, given the circumstances. Stuff’s Taranaki reporter Robin Martin has looked at fortunes of the towns of Hāwera and Stratford. They’re benefitting both from big revitalisation projects, but also in a more general sense the farming and rural economy is holding up quite well. It has led to the suggestion from Shamubeel Eaqub – he of the infamous ‘zombie town’ epithet from almost a decade ago – that provincial areas might actually come through this recession better than the big cities.


The National party’s fiscal hole just got deeper again, for the third day in a row. Stuff’s Thomas Coughlan has the latest round, with the party appearing to double-count $3.9 bn set aside for its transport package. However, finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith has denied there has been a mistake in this instance – it all gets a bit complicated, so it’s better to read the story for yourself to get the details.


The Green Party has announced a push for increased protection of oceans, and a ban on bottom trawling in some areas. Newsroom’s Farah Hancock has covered the policy announcement, which takes something of a carrot and stick approach – bans on some practices, along with $50 million in funding for fishing vessels to adapt. Once again though, the party hasn’t been drawn on whether it is a ‘bottom-line’ for coalition negotiations – instead they’ve added it to their list of ‘absolute priorities’. At a certain point, they might have to give a clearer steer on what exactly they’d demand if the opportunity comes up.


Comparisons have been made on the various arts policies of each party, ahead of an election forum. Sam Brooks has been asking around about funding levels and pathways, particularly in light of a pandemic which has shattered a lot of the traditional ways for artists to make a living. There’s going to be a live-streamed forum on the topic tomorrow night, with details at the bottom of the story.


Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Drop us a line at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

Image: Tina Tiller

Right now on The Spinoff: Duncan Greive has conducted an excellent and illuminating interview with National leader Judith Collins. A trio of academics have written an affirmative case for Otago medical school’s affirmative action policy. Colin Gavaghan of Yes for Compassion argues that the End of Life Choice legislation is about a law that is safer than many others on the books around critical care. Josie Adams explains what on earth is going on with the Auckland harbour bridge. Michelle Langstone had a strange and wonderful day out at Rainbow’s End. And Madeleine Chapman is talking holes in her latest meme coverage column.


For a feature today, a regional story about water from the start of the month I never found a place for. Hawke’s Bay Today (NZME paywall) has reported on a council decision around the use of below-ground water in the drought-prone region. All the while, speculation continues about whether the controversial Ruataniwha Dam will make a comeback. Here’s the intro to give you a taste.

Hawke’s Bay Regional Council has voted to prioritise a trial of using water below the ground to help solve Central Hawke’s Bay’s water shortage woes.

It comes after a councillor’s claim that it, and other councils in the region, were giving life to a “rotting corpse” by continuing to support a group that wanted to build the Ruataniwha dam.

Farmers in Central Hawke’s Bay have been hit badly by drought this year and argue water storage is needed to improve flows for river life through summer and provide certainty for irrigators.

But a $330 million plan to build the Ruataniwha dam, a project planned as a solution to the problem, was blocked by the Supreme Court in 2017, despite almost $20m of expenditure by HBRC on consents and planning.


In sport, a hard look at the commercial strategy of NZ Cricket, now that times have got very tough for the organisation. Writing on Business Desk (paywalled,) former international Glenn Turner has hit out at a culture of overspending and deficits at the organisation, amid a ‘cargo cult’ mentality that there would periodically be big windfalls from playing against India. Incidentally, Turner has an interesting looking book out, which you can browse here.


That’s it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme