Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Referendum results day, problems abound for Air NZ, and what Labour’s manifesto included that wasn’t campaigned on.

We’re finally going to get the provisional results of the two referendums today, on cannabis legalisation and assisted dying respectively. They’ll be announced at 2pm, and we’ll have immediate coverage on The Spinoff when we know. A reminder – these results won’t include the special votes, which won’t be added to the tallies until next week. So what are we expecting to see today?

Toby Manhire has taken a long hard look at the likely outcome of the cannabis referendum, and published his thoughts here. In short, the polling has been volatile, but has tended to favour cannabis legalisation losing. Having said that, polling in the leadup to the election also showed the left underperforming on their actual election result, and given those voters tend to favour legalisation that could also mean the polls are out. If it’s close, the wait for the specials will be crucial.

And on assisted dying? That doesn’t look like it’s going to be close at all. The NZ Herald has published a poll (which for legal reasons, was technically not an exit poll) which shows a clear majority have backed the End of Life Choice Act coming into force. It might end up being closer on the actual results, but the gap is large enough that it seems certain to pass.

While that’s all going on, Labour and the Greens will be finalising their talks. At some stage either today or tomorrow, it will become clear what Labour has offered the Greens in exchange for some form of parliamentary support, and that deal will then be taken back to the Green membership to either ratify or reject. A final decision on that is expected to be announced on Sunday, so either way by the time Monday’s bulletin rolls around there’ll be plenty of news to update you on.

Air NZ has been ordered to refund a customer who had flights cancelled as a result of a decision to cut services, in a decision that could have big implications. The NZ Herald reports the Disputes Tribunal decision could mean thousands of other would-be travellers are also entitled to claim refunds. Meanwhile, even more job cuts at the airline have pushed the relationship with the union to breaking point, reports Stuff.

There were a few promises in Labour’s manifesto that weren’t really campaigned on at all, but might they be part of the government’s next term? Justin Giovannetti has looked closely at two that got basically no attention – the restarting of the refugee intake programme, and reforms around campaign finance. The latter will involve a review which could turn into a particularly big deal, given how many cases and stories around donations there were over the last term.

There’s something a bit grim about sharing this as a good news story, but business is great for wine exporters right now. Why? As Newshub reports, more people stuck in lockdowns overseas are drinking their way through it all. That has offset people not being able to drink in restaurants. As I said, grim.

An interesting aspect of the mariners in managed isolation getting Covid-19 is the question – why is the fishing industry importing workers at all? Radio NZ’s Tim Brown has looked into the perceptions of the industry, and found that it is one of many in which the big companies are accused of bringing in labour from overseas, because those people will be cheaper and willing to work in harsher conditions. Industry bosses say that isn’t true, and rather the labour pool of New Zealanders simply isn’t there.

Following on from Tuesday’s discussion of high costs around dental care, here’s a piece that puts some alternative numbers on the table. Stuff’s Thomas Coughlan has laid out what the theoretical costs of a modestly funded public dental system would be, excluding cosmetic dentistry. It comes out fiscally much more possible than what the protestations of senior Labour MPs would indicate, but it seems clear the political will isn’t strong enough.

A correction: I meant to send you towards this piece by Newsroom’s Marc Daalder yesterday, but put the wrong link in. Apologies for that, it’s still worth a read.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Drop us a line at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

Right now on The Spinoff: Justin Latif writes about the upcoming marae food festival, Te Ahi Kōmau.Jihee Junn reports on what a financial literacy survey really shows about the gender gap. I’ve got a cheat sheet on the state of play for the upcoming US election, and when we’ll get the results.Jonathan Cotton looks at where the government is getting all the money to pay for the Covid-19 recovery, and where that debt is taking us. Miriam Lancewood writes a letter from a hypothetical future in which things don’t turn out so bad after all. And Ben Fahy writes about how data sharing is making life easier.

One of the most interesting special vote tallies to wait on is Waiariki, where the Māori Party’s Rawiri Waititi currently holds a narrow lead. Regardless of whether he can hang on against Labour’s Tamati Coffey, it’s clear the wider election showed the Māori Party remains a force to be reckoned with, also coming close in two other seats. As political strategist Matt McCarten writes in E-Tangata, that should have big implications for how Labour goes about governing. Here’s an excerpt:

The other challenge will be the cabinet. Now that New Zealand First is out, there will be three fewer Māori in the room. The normal Labour caucus convention is that one out of every five ministers is Māori. The current Labour-led cabinet has just two — Kelvin and Nanaia Mahuta. Meka Whaitiri was sacked and wasn’t replaced.

Given the importance of the Māori Party threat and the power of the Māori caucus, Jacinda is surely going to have to select five. The obvious ones are Kelvin, Nanaia, Peeni Henare and Willie Jackson. The fifth is a choice between rehabilitating Meka Whaitiri, who deserves it, or promoting Kiri Allan, who is unquestionably a rising star.

Every Labour MP knows every misstep over Māori by their leadership will be amplified by the Māori Party. The Māori Party are laser-focused on winning their seats off them.

In sport, another major international event is off. The NZ Golf Open won’t be going ahead, because of health and financial risks around Covid-19, reports One News. 300 international participants would have been involved had it gone ahead (including caddies and coaches etc) so there would also have been quite significant quarantine requirements to get through. There are hopes that the tournament will be back again in 2022.

Meanwhile, Black Caps seamers are hitting some serious form ahead of the international summer, by bullying batsmen in the Plunket Shield. Tim Southee and Kyle Jamieson both picked up 5-wicket hauls yesterday, with Neil Wagner taking a cheeky four too. Jamieson’s performance for Auckland was particularly special, and included this absolute missile to get a hattrick.

That’s it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme

Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Assessing some of the bizarre recent international interventions on NZ’s Covid policy, documents reveal what ministers knew about border staff testing, and Gerry Brownlee under pressure for deputy spot.

Apologies in advance, because I don’t normally make a habit of using the Bulletin to magnify morons. But there has been a spate of quite unhinged criticism of New Zealand’s Covid-19 response in the last few days, from figures with large platforms who can make a lot of noise as a result. And it’s worth getting into why that might be happening.

In the US, a particularly odd attack came from the show of Fox News host Laura Ingraham. In it, some guy from an organisation called the Hoover Institution “condemned New Zealand’s institution of coronavirus quarantine “camps” – mischaracterising the rules around testing requirements in managed isolation. The fellow said the policy made no sense, because New Zealand has had only 25 deaths from Covid, without ever actually making the connection between the extremely low death toll and such policies.

From the UK, a thought leader and former senior figure in the UK Independence Party described New Zealand as having a “fascist government”. As Newshub reports, this was also based on the testing requirements. Suzanne Evans followed up by likening the replies she was getting from New Zealanders to the enabling efforts of Germans in the leadup to the Nazi regime taking power. It’s not the first time such comparisons have come from Britain.

Much as we might like to think of ourselves as the centre of the universe, these interventions aren’t necessarily about New Zealand. Rather, they’re arguably more about the domestic politics of the country they’re coming from. The Fox News story was particularly notable in how it barely skated over New Zealand, before pivoting towards propaganda about the upcoming US election – raising the (misleading) spectre of something horrifying, and then asking if that is what Democrat candidate Joe Biden would put in place. In the UK, an intense battle is currently underway about how fiercely the country should respond to an alarming new wave of cases. A massive recession has arrived, despite the policies pursued there to date ostensibly being about protecting the economy.

There’s another example in this canon – the widely shared attack from columnist Gideon Rozner on the re-election of the Ardern government in (paywalled) The Australian. In it, Rozner actually made some fair points about the government’s non-delivery on major projects to date, mixed in with some highly ideological posturing. But he also concluded with a pop at the state government of Victoria, a favourite target of the Murdoch-owned media at the moment.

In a similar vein, even some of the commentary coming from overseas in praise of New Zealand’s response is much more about what’s happening domestically. A great example of this is the satire of The Borowitz Report, which hoodwinked plenty of readers into thinking that “Donald J. Trump accused Jacinda Ardern of competently handling the coronavirus pandemic in order to get reëlected.” Trump didn’t say that, but it’s the sort of paraphrase that plenty of his opponents could easily imagine. Other reactions to the election have been collected here, many of them from publications where writers yearn for their governments to respond like New Zealand’s has.

Of course, it’s fair enough for people to make whatever points they like. After all, we’re living in one of those unusual sorts of apparent fascist dictatorships with freedom of speech. But when those criticisms come from people with an obvious axe to grind of their own, and only the vaguest understanding of what New Zealand is actually doing to combat Covid, we don’t have to dignify them with a respectful hearing.

Now for some news about what the government actually might be getting wrong. New information about what cabinet was being told has contradicted claims from ministers about the lack of testing of border-facing staff, reports Newsroom’s Marc Daalder. It comes from proactively released documents which have been looked over in forensic detail.

Meanwhile on health, minister Chris Hipkins has vowed the government will press on with DHB consolidation, reports Stuff. That’ll be based on the recommendations out of the Simpson report, which called for a large reduction in the number of DHBs, along with an end to DHB elections. Hipkins says the government hasn’t completely decided which bits of the Simpson report they’ll implement, but in general terms they’ll be pushing it through.

Gerry Brownlee appears to be under pressure to hold onto the deputy leadership of National. Stuff reports he’ll face a confidence vote next month, and the story includes an understanding “that several National MPs are unhappy with Brownlee’s performance”. However, as Radio NZ reports, several MPs have actually gone on the record backing Brownlee, including former leaders Simon Bridges and Todd Muller, and repeated leadership aspirant Mark Mitchell. Leader Judith Collins is currently in the process of one on one meetings with her MPs, and will announce portfolios when she knows who will be taking ministerial roles for the government. The NZ Herald’s (paywalled) Claire Trevett is worth reading for insights on who might get what, with Shane Reti mooted as a potential deputy, and Simon Bridges tipped for a possible move into finance.

Severe congestion is being seen at Auckland’s port amid a change in systems, reports BusinessDesk’s (paywalled) Brett Melville. The union says a shift to automation has reduced the numbers of stevedores on the ground able to deal with challenges as they come up, with backlogs being the result. A Ports of Auckland spokesperson says that there are problems through the whole supply chain.

One of the two people on charges over the NZ First Foundation has pleaded not guilty, reports the NZ Herald’s Sam Hurley. They continue to hold name suppression, after media companies were unsuccessful in getting it lifted ahead of the election. The accused also hit out at the media during their day in court, saying they had been the victim of leaks. The other person charged will appear in court today.

Three pieces from a journalist who has got the inside stories on the campaigns of the five major parties: Stuff’s Andrea Vance has put together a remarkable series based around on the record briefings and off the record tips, outlining how each party’s campaign succeeded and failed respectively. The first looks at the implosion of National, the second looks at how ruthless professionalism of Labour harnessed grassroots energy (and touches on the Greens) and the third contrasts the ups and downs of Act and NZ First. Keep an eye out for photojournalist Iain McGregor’s pictures too, they’re really rather telling.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Drop us a line at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

Right now on The Spinoff: We ask a range of famous figures about what biscuits they’d put on the table to win a negotiation, in honour of the Labour-Green talks. Henrietta Bollinger writes about the lack of disabled representation in the new parliament. Ayla Miller tells the story of accidentally becoming a landlord, and the challenges that involved. Hatch GM Kristen Lunman explains day trading, and why it’s a risky thing to get involved in. Natasha Lampard argues that New Zealand should strongly oppose the nomination of Chris Liddell to head the OECD on moral grounds. Emma Espiner talks to Dr Maxine Ronald, the only wahine Māori consultant breast cancer surgeon in the world, about inequities in breast cancer outcomes for Māori. Alice Webb-Liddall talks to lingerie designer Chloé Julian about stepping out from major brands as a solo creator. The Drax Project project talk to Sherry Zhang about returning to New Zealand, and some of the major collaborations they put together in the States.

And speaking of musical collaborations, Sam Brooks has collected some of the best covers of New Zealand songs performed at Silver Scrolls events over the years. For me, Three Houses Down absolutely monstering The Naked and Famous was a particular highlight.

For a feature today, a look at how Britain is dealing with neurological complications from Covid. One of the longer term impacts of the virus is that it can in some cases hit the brain hard, with possible outcomes ranging from delirium and ‘brain fog’ to the onset of Parkinson’s disease. This piece from the Telegraph outlines how many cases are being seen, and what’s being done about them. Here’s an excerpt:

There was inflammation of the brain too, potentially devastating for an organ trapped in a hard shell and, unlike several other organs, with little regenerative capacity. “One of our patients had brain inflammation,” Manji recalls. “We had to take off half his skull to reduce the pressure.”

What neurologists are now struggling to determine is whether these few, truly serious brain complications of Covid are linked to the far greater number of enduring cases of “brain fog” and fatigue that can contribute to long Covid. “These people who’ve got the milder symptoms in the community, the brain fog, do they represent the continuum of those with severe neurological disease who’ve been hospitalised?” asks Michael. “That’s the big question. That’s the real controversy here.”

Certainly, says Manji, there is no obvious physical reason why milder syndromes like brain fog, where scans reveal no brain damage, should not eventually clear up. “Though it may take months.”

The Silver Ferns have comfortably beaten England in their first international game in close to a year. The NZ Herald reports it was a win built on strong defense, with plenty of intercepts and turnovers coming the Ferns’ way. In the end, the margin was 58-45, giving the Ferns plenty of momentum to claim the three match series.

That’s it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme