As the ranks start filling ahead of November 7, here’s a handful of candidates parties will consider good gets.
There are plenty of impressive candidates, new and old, getting their names in lights as we approach the November election, and various electorate races (eg West Coast) shaping up nicely. But below are four contenders who, so far, have arrived with a shimmer of surprise.
(Let me know who I missed, in the comments.)
Taine Randell for NZ First in Tukituki
There was some speculation that the promised big reveal at last weekend’s New Zealand First meeting in Hawke’s Bay might be Stuart Nash, returning from a brief exile after a spell of mind gloop. As it happened, instead we got a storm, followed not by a hurricane but a Highlander. Ta-da: the surprise candidate, came the reports midweek, was Taine Randell.
In 2023, Randell had flirted with the idea of taking up a Labour invitation to stand in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, before having a moment of clarity and deciding, “Politics, no thanks”. But now, after “a long dance” with New Zealand First, he has updated that to: yes, please. Or, at least: OK, then.
And so the All Black captain of the late 90s has packed down alongside another former representative rugby player, Winston Peters. Asked what motivated him, he muttered “immigration”, before championing, with more obvious enthusiasm, the glories of renewable electricity.
Randell, who has been involved in business pursuits – from Ngāti Kahungunu asset management, including lobster exports, to the Highlanders Super Rugby franchise – since returning from a post-rugby stint in the UK, has proved an insightful and affable presence in recent months on Morning Report’s Friday sports panel and, though he might find the questions a bit thornier as a political candidate, it’s a real boon to a New Zealand First Party on the ascendant.
Can he win? He’ll almost certainly get a position on the list that will put him in parliament, but winning in Tukituki is a seriously long shot. National’s Catherine Wedd is sitting on a 10k majority and New Zealand First won just 6% of the party vote in 2023. Still, boilovers do happen – by which I mean, obviously, the French comeback in the second half of the 1999 semi-final against the All Blacks.
James Christmas for Act in Tāmaki
To be clear: James Christmas has not yet been selected to contest the plush Auckland electorate. Act is selecting from a “torrent of talent” comprising eight individuals, including another exponent of the formidable apostolic-first-name-plus-day-of-celebration-surname formula, Mr Paul Wedding.
The decision will be announced on Monday but it’s already beginning to look a lot like Christmas, especially when you consider the praise heaped upon him by David Seymour in the Herald story that broke the news he was “switching allegiance”. Christmas stood in 2023 as a list-only candidate for the National Party. He came close – had he been three places higher he’d be in parliament now; he might even be attorney-general and minister for treaty negotiations.
Christmas worked as a staffer in the previous National government, in the offices of Chris Finlayson, John Key and Bill English. He co-authored with Finlayson an important book about Treaty Settlements, He Kupu Taurangi. A tad un-Acty, you say? Well, Christmas appeared on The Platform this week to disabuse listeners of any perception that he might be a “Manchurian candidate” for the wokerati, adding: “I’m not a co-governance guy, I’m a Treaty-settlements guy.”
Tāmaki is a fun seat. It had been pure National from 1960, when a thirty-something called Rob Muldoon seized power, until Brooke van Velden impetuously ripped it from the most conservative crevasse of the National Party, Simon O’Connor, in 2023. Van Velden would have retained the seat, but decided to chuck it in to spend more time with the private sector.
And then along came Christmas. The way the MMP maths works, National stands to win very, very few list places, so despite the frustration among many in the party at losing someone that seems universally to be described as freakishly intelligent, it could provide a cabinet-ready MP should the current coalition be reinstalled.
Can he win? Yup. He’ll surely get a good list position, and he may not even need it. The National candidate, Mahesh Muralidhar, is no pushover, however. He has some experience under his belt after running in Auckland Central in 2023, has already been knocking on doors, and boasts an impressive tech entrepreneur backstory. Labour, meanwhile, has selected Max Harris, an admired activist, lawyer and the author of The New Zealand Project. He won’t win Tāmaki but he likely will make it on the list, and he will certainly make the electorate race a fascinating and brainy one.
Tania Waikato for the Greens in Waiariki
Another accomplished lawyer, Tania Waikato impressed in acting for Te Pāti Māori at the Privileges Committee following the debating chamber haka during the Treaty Principles Bill debate. She has also represented Toitū Te Tiriti, organisers of the hīkoi protesting that legislation.
So what drew Waikato to the Green house? The urgings of ancestors. “My tīpuna push me to the Greens – I’m just going to be blunt about it,” she told the Herald in December. “There were tohu popped up regularly to the point that I couldn’t ignore that that was where I was being pushed.”
As for the TPM meltdown, “I love all my friends and colleagues in Te Pāti Māori and I have spent time with them throughout the year,” she said. “It’s been really sad for me to watch from the sidelines.”
A busy and effective presence on social media, Waikato has been ranked 15th on the Greens’ initial list, which members are currently voting on (the party currently has 15 MPs).
Can she win? It’s a tall order against TPM co-leader Rawiri Waititi and the Greens have never won a Māori seat, but – depending who Labour put up – it could yet be a three-way tussle. Based on the most recent polling, and if Waikato remains ranked 15th, she’d be touch and go for a list seat.
Sophie Handford for Labour in Kāpiti
Eight years after she founded School Strike 4 Climate, Sophie Handford remains deeply green, but is standing for parliament with the red team. In 2019, Handford was elected at the age of 18 to the Kāpiti Coast District Council, where she served two terms.
Handford, whose other accomplishments include running the Vote Climate 2020 campaign and sometimes looking like The Spinoff writer Alex Casey, was born in Paekākāriki and now lives just up the coast in Waikanae. “I’m really proud to be standing for Labour here at home,” she said when selected in November for Kāpiti. The seat is a product of the latest redrawing of electorate boundaries; its northern half used to be part of Ōtaki, its southern half was Mana.
Is it a surprise she’s standing for Labour? She went a bob each way in 2023 by volunteering for both Labour and the Greens but perhaps there’s a clue in the fact that, when a student at Kāpiti College, she participated in the youth parliament for Mana in the stead of Kris Faafoi.
Can she win? Tim Costley won Ōtaki for National in 2023 with a majority of more than 6,000. He’ll be the favourite for 2026 but Handford is in the race – there are strong red pockets in the southern part of the new electorate, currently part of Mana, where Labour’s Barbara Edmonds is the incumbent. That and a swing left could make for a fascinating contest. And she’s likely to be in the mix for a decent list spot.
