Frustrated MPs have figured a resignation is the only way. Last night’s numbers could stiffen their sinews.
After fresh hailstones of insubordination thudded down on Friday morning, Christopher Luxon took a breath and prepared his ripostes. At a lunchtime press conference in Pōkeno he said, “If we had an election today, this government would be reinstated.” He repeated the point not once, but three times. “Any polls, any public polls that I’ve seen, have said that this coalition government would be re-elected if there was an election today.”
That’s true. Or it was true, based on the two polls that had been so far reported in April. It is not true any more. Last night’s Verian poll for 1News arrived like a whack to the solar plexus, with the National Party backed by 30%, down four points from the February poll, their lowest since Luxon became leader at the end of 2021, and only in the 30s thanks to rounding – go to one decimal point and it’s 29.7%. Labour, thriving despite or because of a policy void, are up five points. Critically, if they could rummage up a deal with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, they could form a government. Or, to put it another way, the coalition government would not be re-elected if there was an election today.
Just how much of that result can be pinned on Luxon? Well, in the preferred prime minister category, he is backed by just 16%. Just one in six people pick him as their guy. The other Chris, Hipkins, is hardly setting the world alight, on 19%. But as Luxon clings to the ninth floor upholstery there is the consolation at least that no rival MP is surging up the ranks.
I had wondered if Nicola Willis, given her efforts in response to the fuel crisis, might get a bump. But she’s just 0.8%. Erica Stanford is 0.9%. Mark Mitchell? 0.3%. Chris Bishop has made an impression, up a point to 2%. That’s not quite the level that might expedite a change the way Jacinda Ardern’s poll rise as Labour deputy leader did back in 2017, but it could yet be the start of something.
In truth, there is one MP bounding upward. Winston Peters, on 12%. Perhaps it’s time for him to finally fulfill the many predictions of the late 80s and early 90s and become National leader.
The headlines of Friday painted out a blinking contest, a contorted game of you-go-first. Central to that has been a conviction that a public defenestration won’t do – hence the efforts, in private and through anonymous briefing into the media, to persuade Luxon that he should resign. It’s a sound argument: talk of coups does nothing to endear you to voters, especially not in a long running cost-of-living crisis, with fuel crisis now added, all wrapped up in a frighteningly unstable world. Add to that the lessons of MMP in keeping coalition partners onside and it quickly becomes one hell of a mess.
The big question invited by this poll, however, is whether it will tip the scale. Is it enough to steel the resolve of grouchy backbench MPs? To galvanise them into going on the record? To motivate a confidence vote in caucus on Tuesday?
There is frustration with the leader throughout the National caucus. Ministers are frustrated by his insouciance, a perceived unwillingness to listen to advice, a disinclination to get his head around the detail on any given issue, and the resultant struggle to make a coherent argument beyond superficial talking points. For unhappy backbenchers, it’s a bit of that, and the visceral, swelling panic of imminent unemployment.
With that in mind, the appearance yesterday morning of Chris Bishop in the Q+A studio – a place Luxon has not dared step since late 2024 – offered a kind of paradox. On the one hand, the man recently removed as campaign chair and leader of the house was unequivocal in rejecting any suggestion of a brewing coup or leadership ambitions. “Christopher Luxon is doing a great job as our leader and prime minister,” he insisted, “and he will lead us into the election”. On the other hand, in responding to testing questions from Jack Tame, on the National predicament, on transport and on housing, Bishop displayed an authority and coherence, a passion and sense of humour that stood as an indictment of a prime minister who struggles with all of that.
Luxon loyalists will point to the economy, to the global headwinds, and to the mood against incumbents around the world. Many in the caucus still wear deep scars from the nightmare they endured after Simon Bridges was rolled in 2020. But one way or another the best thing may be for it all to come to a head this week, for MPs to express their confidence or otherwise in their leader. The alternative is the slowest, most painful removal of a plaster imaginable.
