Did our round of reckons come true for the 2025 political year?
A year ago, our hand-picked posse of political pundits shared their outlandish predictions for the year ahead. Did any of them hit the mark? Let’s take a look.
Madeleine Chapman (former editor, The Spinoff): Winston Peters will realise just how bad it feels to hand over his deputy prime ministership to David Seymour and will shortly after cause the coalition to implode.
To the surprise of many, the handing over of the deputy prime minister reins from Winston Peters to David Seymour in May went off without a hitch. But there has been tension between the two coalition partners over Act’s flagship Regulatory Standards Act, which NZ First will campaign on repealing at the general election. No deputy prime ministership drama needed for that relationship to deteriorate.
Eric Crampton (chief economist, The New Zealand Initiative): My long-shot punt: iwi find opportunity to take up powers comparable to councils for rangatiratanga over reserve land and land held under Māori land tenure: zoning, consenting, rates, possibly authority to find better structures for governance of land held under Māori land tenure.
Though Crampton’s prediction was definitely a long shot, the historic Waitakere Ranges deed between Te Kawerau ā Maki, Auckland Council and the Crown was passed in August. But in terms of iwi having council-like powers? With recent changes to the Resource Management Act and a rates cap in the works, even councils are losing certain powers, so passing legislation to give iwi control over zoning and rates doesn’t look likely. Joel MacManus explored this idea through a Canadian lens in depth in a cover story for The Spinoff, if you’re curious about how this could work and how some iwi are currently developing Māori land.
Andrew Geddis (law professor, University of Otago): Following an impromptu ayahuasca ceremony held in 3.2, Act and Te Pāti Māori MPs come to realise that they actually are all thoughts in the dream of the one spirit and seek to join the Green Party. Chlöe is not impressed.
Nope – unfortunately, 3.2 closed before any ayahuasca ceremony could take place and there’s probably no room in the new parliament bar to host one now. However, Act and Te Pāti Māori did manage to find some common ground in 2025 over Act MP Laura McClure’s deepfakes bill, but that wasn’t a Siddhartha-style spiritual awakening strong enough to send both parties to the Greens. Chlöe Swarbrick, meanwhile, has definitely been very unimpressed this year, so maybe Geddis can get a quarter grade.
Lara Greaves (politics associate professor, University of Auckland): I would like to double-or-nothing my 2024 prediction: “The leader of a parliamentary political party gets rolled.”
Sorry, Greaves, but you get nothing.
Duncan Greive (founder, The Spinoff): Nicola Willis will be prime minister by July 1.
As of December 19, 2025, Christopher Luxon is still the prime minister, and Nicola Willis is still the finance minister.
Joel MacManus (senior writer, The Spinoff): Mark Sainsbury will run for mayor of Wellington.
The capital had a clown, an ice cream man, Ray Chung and Andrew Little in its race, but no Mark Sainsbury. Sad!
Toby Manhire (editor-at-large, The Spinoff): Donald Trump will announce a visit to New Zealand.
Sorry, Toby, but the only thing Trump gave to Aotearoa this year was a bunch of tariffs and the opportunity for New Zealanders to laugh at our leader’s bald head. But maybe the latter is the better outcome anyway.
Ben McKay (AAP Pacific editor): Australia goes to the polls twice. An April election produces a deadlocked parliament with Labor propped up by a few Teals, independents and Greens. It’s unworkable and Albanese gambles on a second election. He loses, sending Peter Dutton to The Lodge.
Australia only headed to the polls once, and that was in May, so Ben gets a fail grade.
Alice Neville (deputy editor, The Spinoff): Kieran McAnulty will roll Chris Hipkins and assume leadership of the Labour Party, but his reign will be short-lived, as he in turn will be rolled by his greyhound Zoi. Emboldened by her species’ newfound freedom and fame, Zoi will establish a cabal of her fellow hounds to stage a bloodless but bark-full coup, ousting the coalition and taking over the running of the country.
If only. Chris Hipkins is still the Labour leader, Kieran McAnulty is still the party’s resident standing orders nerd, and Zoi continues to enjoy her peaceful life being walked by Labour staffers around the parliamentary precinct. Zoi is indeed a pup of the people and most likely a member (if not leader) of the parliamentary pet cabal, so she doesn’t need the political standing.
Stewart Sowman-Lund (senior reporter, The Post, former Bulletin editor at The Spinoff): Winston Peters will refuse to relinquish the deputy premiership to David Seymour.
Wow, we really thought that swap-over was going to be the end times for the coalition, didn’t we? Anyway, long live deputy prime minister David Seymour.
