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A protester outside parliament in May (Photo by DAVE LINTOTT/AFP via Getty Images)
A protester outside parliament in May (Photo by DAVE LINTOTT/AFP via Getty Images)

The BulletinNovember 8, 2024

Stage set for Treaty Principles Bill showdown

A protester outside parliament in May (Photo by DAVE LINTOTT/AFP via Getty Images)
A protester outside parliament in May (Photo by DAVE LINTOTT/AFP via Getty Images)

The controversial proposed legislation has been introduced to parliament just a week out from its first reading, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in today’s extract from The Bulletin.

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Few surprises

David Seymour’s controversial Treaty Principles Bill has finally been made public – and we’ve had our first glimpse at the protest action that awaits it. The draft of the legislation was introduced to parliament yesterday, reported RNZ’s Russell Palmer, confirming minor changes to what had initially been announced. The second principle, explained the bill’s architect David Seymour, has been narrowed “to provide that the rights of hapū and iwi differ from the rights everyone has a reasonable expectation to enjoy only when those rights are agreed to as part of a Treaty settlement”. Seymour said this had occurred because the previous wording was “too broad”.

The Waitangi Tribunal released the second part of its interim report into the bill earlier this week, in time for the bill’s tabling at parliament, saying that should it pass it would “be the worst, most comprehensive breach of the Te Tiriti in modern times”. As has been widely established, the bill will be backed by all three coalition parties through first reading – set down for next Thursday – and enjoy the standard select committee period. That’s despite the fact National has pledged not to endorse the bill any further, effectively killing it sometime in early 2025.

Challenges in the House…

While the bill has now been introduced to parliament, that’s all that has happened so far. Simeon Brown, the acting leader of the house, told TVNZ’s Breakfast it was a “technicality” that would allow the public to have a first look at the bill. The real fireworks will begin when parliament has the opportunity to debate it. Nevertheless, Te Pāti Māori attempted to raise the matter at the start of question time yesterday, reported the Herald’s Julia Gabel. Multiple attempts by the party to raise points of order on the bill were shut down, but not before those in the public gallery audibly objected. Iwi leader Helmut Modlik – who recently went toe to toe with Seymour in a debate on the bill – and six other senior members of Ngāti Toa walked out of the public gallery.

In question time the day prior, as noted here in the Hansard, Green Party MP Teanau Tuiono challenged the prime minister on why the bill was being put through a full select committee process only for it to be ditched at the end. Christopher Luxon responded: “[It] is a chance for the public to engage with the process”. Unfortunately for the government, and the prime minister in particular, it means next year’s Waitangi Day will be very uncomfortable.

…And outside

There wasn’t just discontent within parliament, but outside it. A number of protesters also gathered on parliament’s forecourt in opposition of the bill, while others marched through David Seymour’s Epsom electorate, reported RNZ’s Te Manu Korihi. One protester claimed that the introduction of the bill this week was out of fear from a forthcoming hīkoi set to leave the tip of the North Island next week and weave its way down to Wellington, though Seymour, speaking to The Platform, dismissed this.

Initially intended to coincide with the treaty bill’s launch, the hīkoi will now serve as a response to the first reading. Organisers told Te Karere that the protest wasn’t against the bill, but “for Te Tiriti”. In an interesting feature this morning, RNZ’s Ella Stewart goes inside the movement – Toitū te Tiriti – pushing for protest against the coalition government. The group has been responsible for several large scale rallies across the country over the past 12 months, and has organised next week’s hīkoi as well. Spokesperson Eru Kapa-Kingi said: “As soon as this coalition government came in it sparked a fire in me and also in the people that I spend a lot of time with, particularly discussing our rights and our liberation as a people.”

‘Plenty in the pipeline’

All three opposition parties released a joint open letter in a last ditch appeal to the prime minister to scrap the bill entirely. As noted by Marc Daalder, writing for Newsroom Pro (paywalled), it’s relatively rare for parties to join together and shows the opposition wants the Treaty Principles Bill to be an issue “above politics”. That message is unlikely to be heeded by the government.

Though the government’s commitment remains only to support the bill to first reading, Seymour and Act appear equally as dedicated to trying to take it further. In an email sent to party supporters yesterday, Seymour said they would soon hear more about Act’s planned campaign in support of the bill. “Needless to say, there’s plenty in the pipeline,” he added.

Newsroom’s Fox Meyer reported that Seymour’s plan appears to be to normalise the idea of the bill, with the Act leader himself admitting it can take multiple attempts for something to progress through parliament. Matthew Hooton, writing for the Herald, said as much in a piece earlier this year. By securing a select committee process, there are months in which the public will have a chance to have their say. Should that response fall even somewhat in favour of the bill, then Seymour will have political capital with which to campaign on in 2026. “Act candidates would travel the country holding up copies of the defeated bill,” wrote Hooton. By introducing the bill, even if it is destined to fail, he has opened a conversation he believes worth having – even if it goes nowhere in this term of parliament.

On the flipside, argued Liam Rātana for The Spinoff earlier this year, it could backfire. “Far from solidifying its political standing, the party risks alienating mainstream voters and shifting towards the political fringes, tainted by divisive, hard-right rhetoric,” he wrote.

Keep going!
Donald Trump gestures after speaking at the West Palm Beach Convention on November 6 (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
Donald Trump gestures after speaking at the West Palm Beach Convention on November 6 (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

The BulletinNovember 7, 2024

The morning after the night before: Trump returns to the White House

Donald Trump gestures after speaking at the West Palm Beach Convention on November 6 (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
Donald Trump gestures after speaking at the West Palm Beach Convention on November 6 (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

The 45th president will become the 47th, with Republicans winning the Senate and on track to control the House too, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in today’s edition of The Bulletin.

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A political comeback like no other

The race was predicted to be tight, but in the end it wasn’t really. Former president Donald Trump will return to the White House, comfortably, with the latest projections reporting Trump has secured over the required 270 Electoral College votes and is leading in several key states yet to be called. It puts him on track to pull in a result bigger than Joe Biden’s in 2020 and, in contrast to his 2016 win, he will also take the popular vote.

At the time of writing, the Republicans have also secured the Senate while the House of Representatives is still up for grabs. It’s a remarkable comeback story for Trump, who left the presidency in 2021 in a violent cloud as supporters stormed the Capitol, and has spent much of the past three years in and out of court. ABC’s live election coverage repeatedly emphasised that the election would be historic – the choice between the first female president or the first president that had been convicted of a crime. Here’s how Rolling Stone magazine summarised it in a tweet.

Writing for The Post, Luke Malpass said the past four years of Joe Biden now looked like a “Covid-era aberration”, with Trump improving his performance in virtually every state counted so far. “America has moved to the right,” said Malpass. “The result reveals two Americas, divided along cultural lines. The prosperous, mostly coastal cities, rich with economic opportunity and the beneficiaries of globalisation and the parts of the country left behind by that prosperity and the cultural change it has wrought.”

How Harris became linked to Biden’s failures

The mood at the Harris camp was understandably sober. The vice president did not address supporters gathered on election night, reported the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan, though it’s intended she will do so today. It’s now being reported that Harris will speak at 10am NZT, earlier than initially expected.

In analysis for ABC shared here by RNZ, Leigh Sales laid out six reasons why Harris was always on track to lose last night’s election. Among them, the state of the US economy. While Harris was not the president over the past four years, she has been inextricably linked to it as veep – and the Trump campaign did its best to blame her for the actions of the wider administration. Sales noted that while the economy has improved under the Biden administration, Americans “feel like they’re doing it tougher than they ever have”. That so-called “vibecession” has been felt around the world. New Zealand has, to some extent, experienced it too – while we have dipped in and out of recession, many feel we’ve been stuck in one for a lot longer.

The signs of this were apparent as soon as the early polls emerged yesterday, reported AP. While Harris voters were motivated by the fate of democracy, Trump backers were most worried about immigration and inflation. At the end of the day, that messaging won out.

The immediate ramifications

Former prime minister John Key, who publicly backed Trump, tempered his messaging slightly in an interview with Newstalk ZB’s Ryan Bridge this morning. On the prospect of Trump introducing heavy tariffs on foreign goods, Key acknowledged there would be “quite big repercussions” for New Zealand. “There is some downside for New Zealand and I’m not going to sugarcoat that, and they concern me.”

The New Zealand dollar took an immediate hit, the Herald’s Jamie Gray reported (paywalled), dipping by about US1c while local wholesale interest rates spiked. In an interview with RNZ’s Lisa Owen last night, Tim Groser, the former NZ ambassador to the US during the first Trump term, warned Americans that they may find their cost of living increases as a result of the incoming president’s proposed tariffs. “All of the responsible economists… are saying this is a disaster… The estimate is this will add between $2,000 and $4,000 to the average American household’s bill a year. They’re going to find this out the hard, bloody way.”

How the world reacted

World leaders, including prime minister Christopher Luxon, have congratulated Trump on his election victory. Many sent out statements before some of the major US news networks had called the election for the Republican candidate, but after Trump had claimed victory himself. The BBC reported that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who had a troubled relationship with outgoing president Joe Biden, was among the first to share his congratulations, along with UK leader Keir Starmer.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said he appreciated Trump’s commitment to the “peace through strength” approach in global affairs. “This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer.”

Matthew Hooton, in a column for the Herald (paywalled), noted that the world was entering its most dangerous period since World War II – but argued the US was entering its most dangerous time since the Civil War. “Trump [is] threatening to abandon Ukraine, withdraw the US’s security in Europe which will encourage Russia’s Vladimir Putin to expand his ambitions westward, launch a global trade war and collapse the World Trade Organisation.”

An election like no other

To finish, a brief reflection on what has been a long and exhausting election campaign. Until 100-ish days ago, it was meant to be Joe Biden facing up against Trump last night. We all remember the disastrous debate performance that ultimately triggered his decision to leave the race, paving the way, he believed, for a new generation of political leaders (and search data suggests a lot of people didn’t realise he had quit the race until this week, somehow). The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire noted the Jacinda Ardern-esque glimmers in the sudden ascension of Harris – an anti-Trump figure that could unify America.

The New Yorker has wrapped 25 “stunning moments” from this year’s election campaign that it claims “fell out of a coconut tree”. From the end of the Biden campaign, to a failed assassination attempt on Trump, to claims that the people of Springfield were “eating the pets” – it’s been a long ride. Now, the world prepares for whatever comes next.