Image: Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins in the final leaders’ debate (Getty Images)
Image: Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins in the final leaders’ debate (Getty Images)

The BulletinOctober 16, 2020

The Bulletin: All over bar the counting?

Staff Writer
Image: Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins in the final leaders’ debate (Getty Images)
Image: Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins in the final leaders’ debate (Getty Images)

Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Pre-election poll shows massive lead for Labour, Advance NZ kicked off Facebook, and new developments in NZ First Foundation saga.

A poll released just days before the election shows Labour is still in a clear position to form the next government. While the One News Colmar Brunton showed Labour no longer had the numbers to govern alone, a surge for the Greens means they held a significant combined lead over National and Act.

The numbers: Labour were down one point to 46%, National were down a point to 31%, the Greens were up to 8%, and Act were holding steady on 8%. No other party was above the threshold, though NZ First continued to climb, getting up to 3%. New Conservative were up to 2%, The Opportunities Party were down to 1%, Advance NZ were stuck on 1%, and the Māori Party were up to 1%. If that is the final tally, then basically the only viable government will be Labour supported by the Greens. It’s worth noting though – on these numbers there is still a possibility that we’ll see either or both of NZ First and the Māori Party get back in, the latter through winning one of the seven seats they’re contesting.

But a significant point about it all: The poll only had a 7% share of undecideds, and 8% of voters refusing to answer. Combine that with the 1.5 million strong early vote, and that leaves an extremely small number of available voters for parties to win. This doesn’t mean that the shape of parliament is a foregone conclusion of course, so if you haven’t voted yet, see that you do. And of course, we can’t discount the possibility that the polls are simply wrong, unlikely as that seems.

The poll also asked referendum questions, and showed the gap is tightening on both. However, the numbers also had the End of Life Choice Act looking like it would comfortably win, while the margin for the Cannabis Legalisation and Control bill was smaller, it looks likely at this stage to lose.

The last leaders’ debate also took place last night, and the verdict from our pundits was one of a long slog coming to an end. It has been a hugely challenging year for the country, which in turn will have severely tested the politicians and their teams – not to mention the additional month of campaigning that was added after the Covid resurgence. A frantic final day beckons, and a Newshub poll will be released tonight. But generally speaking, it’s now out of their hands, and the decision falls to a public full of people who have already made their minds up. We’ll know fairly early tomorrow night what the big picture results will be, so keep an eye on The Spinoff for full coverage.

Just quickly, you may be aware that a major new climate change report was released yesterday. It’s called Our Atmosphere and Climate 2020, and was compiled by the environment ministry and Stats NZ. Because on today of all days it’s all just going to get lost in the churn, I will instead endeavour to do full coverage of this report in a Bulletin in the middle of next week.

The Advance NZ facebook page has been shut down, on the grounds of “repeatedly sharing misinformation” that “could lead to imminent physical harm”. The Spinoff reports the takedown happened during the middle of a Billy Te Kahika livestream, in which he hinted at what was about to happen. The party has described the move as “cynical” and “nothing short of election interference”. A similar move was also made last week against the Outdoors Party. Speaking personally, I find both decisions a bit troubling, given that (like them or not) both parties are legitimate registered participants in a democratic election.

Another major development has broken in the saga of the NZ First Foundation, on the verge of the election. Stuff’s Matt Shand has revealed Winston Peters and other MPs were briefed on the foundation a year before stories started breaking, via a report that also included details of the foundation’s bank account. Stuff’s contention is that in reality, the foundation operated as a slush fund for the party itself. In related news, an urgent appeal against name suppression for two people charged in relation to the foundation has been dismissed, reports Radio NZ.

An important story about the impact Covid-19 is having on a rural school: Stuff’s Josephine Franks reports Mangakahia Area School in Northland has lost about a third of their roll this year, for reasons including fear of catching the virus, but also a need among some students to work and support their families. Among the educational consequences of that, the decline in the roll has also meant the school has lost funding for teachers.

A curious story about university administration, discovered by some student journalists who went digging: We’ve republished this piece by Craccum’s Daniel Meech, who reports that Auckland University staff have secretly been tracking student social media mentions of the university for months. As the year went on, the notes being taken became more detailed, and there’s even the suggestion that a university employee may have set up a sock-puppet account on Reddit to anonymously seed university messaging on the platform.

Small tourism operators are calling on domestic tourists to support them over the coming season, reports Stuff. A lot of the big players got significant government support to get them through the period of border closures, but a lot of the small players got basically nothing apart from potentially the wage subsidy. As a result, many might not survive the coming months. This was a bit of a theme that came up regularly at election meetings on the West Coast – I wrote about that here.

Toby Morris

On a personal note, I’m back in Auckland now, having been out and about on the road for a long, long time. It’s not an exaggeration to say it was the most enjoyable work project I’ve ever done, and I’m incredibly grateful to everyone around the country who sent in tips, or had a chat about their views, and more than anything else let me come and talk to them where they lived. Thanks must also go to Jucy and Z Energy for making it all possible. To cap it all off, Toby Manhire got me in to do a special edition of Gone By Lunchtime, which if you keep listening to the end you’ll get me ranting at embarrassing length about my love for democratic participation.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Drop us a line at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

Property managers or the cops of the lease? Renters knows what side it’s on.

Right now on The Spinoff: The Side Eye returns with a final How To Draw of the campaign, focusing on Winston Peters. Chris McIntyre and Stella Blake-Kelly from Policy give an outline of some of the most interesting information and popular policies from that remarkable platform. Alice Webb-Liddall reports on a new study showing systemic gaps in the health system are making it much harder for Māori with eating disorders. Justin Latif speaks to a barber who helps men face up to their demons and mental health issues. Nadine Anne Hura writes about her brother and an electoral system that didn’t represent him at all. And Sam Brooks compares the show Renters to the dreadful cultural stain that was Cops.

For a feature today, another deeply concerning look at the sorts of cuts that are being made in local journalism in the US. The piece on Radio WFTV in Virginia involves an interview with Floyd Press Managing Editor Ashley Spinks, who was also pretty much the only person pulling together a 20 page paper. In the days after doing the interview talking about the cuts, the parent company fired her. Here’s an excerpt:

Like other reporters at Lee-owned papers Spinks was furloughed for a couple of weeks this Spring. And in one particularly infuriating day she, and others, were told their email storage would be slashed. She spent hours deleting messages in order to access her inbox.

But the biggest cut of all for the Floyd Press has been the freelance budget. Spinks assigns and edits a handful of stories each month to freelance reporters.

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“Certainly like, if the readership were to notice something it would be I was filling more space with stories that I was pulling in from sister papers,” Spinks says. That means she was pulling stories from reporters in Roanoke or Richmond, and she says readers did notice. She got messages from folks wondering why there was less content about their community. 

One of the best places to watch New Zealand cricketers this summer will be the Women’s Big Bash League. There’s been a bit of commentary over recent weeks about how the White Ferns weren’t able to foot it with Australia, but there’s quite a strong contingent of New Zealand players in this competition. Cricinfo has a wrap of all the overseas players participating in the tournament, including eight from here. After all, you have to play against the best to get good enough to beat the best. Speaking of cricket coverage, Mediaworks has announced their commentary team for the home summer, and as a huge Rikki Swannell fan it’s great to see her in the mix, alongside former Black Cap Simon Doull and former international coach Mike Hesson.

That’s it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme

Keep going!
A Christchurch ice cream shop having some fun with the election (Getty Images)
A Christchurch ice cream shop having some fun with the election (Getty Images)

The BulletinOctober 15, 2020

The Bulletin: Campaign grinds to the finish line

Staff Writer
A Christchurch ice cream shop having some fun with the election (Getty Images)
A Christchurch ice cream shop having some fun with the election (Getty Images)

Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Campaign grinds to the finish line, claims about overseas donations to NZ Public Party account, and scandal uncovered over single use plastic dumping.

It’s almost over. The extended cut of the 2020 general election is winding down, with a massive advance vote already cast, and the campaigns themselves shifting away from policy towards sheer turnout efforts. Here’s where each one is at:

For National’s Judith Collins, the talking points out of this week have been utterly bizarre. Most of her headlines have revolved around comments made about obesity being a “personal choice”, rather than anything remotely approaching the political platform of the National party. The other headlines have been about making savage attacks on the wealth tax policies of the Green party, despite it being ruled out again and again by Labour’s leadership.

Meanwhile Labour’s campaign has ended focusing on the party’s leadership, and batting away attacks from National based on the Green wealth tax. Stuff’s Thomas Coughlan set out a bit what that looks like – Jacinda Ardern meets huge crowds and visits iconic businesses, while finance spokesperson Grant Robertson stares straight down the barrel of a camera and tells former ‘Key and English’ National voters that the Nats are now in a state of chaos, and Labour will provide stability. It’s the aura of a party that has totally captured the centre ground of the political landscape, and come Sunday morning it will probably have put them back into government – possibly even alone. On that point, take our quiz and see if you can tell the difference between lines issued by the Labour or National campaigns – I tried it and got exactly 50% right.

One question for Labour now is who will be deputy PM, as Newsroom’s Sam Sachdeva discusses – Winston Peters did a very able job filling in, and there are doubts about whether other top parliamentarians could do the same.

For the Greens and NZ First, the prospects of holding significant sway over the next government seem slim. Newshub’s Tova O’Brien had a report last night suggesting Winston Peters’ staff have now given up hope of him getting back in. Meanwhile on Politik, there’s a report that focuses on what the Greens might go for if they are in a position to negotiate with Labour – to get there, they both need to cross the 5% threshold (not a certainty) and Labour’s share will also matter – if the latter has an absolute majority, there may not be much need for negotiation.

For Act, it’s looking like it will be their best election in a generation. Stuff’s John Weekes went out and about around Epsom with David Seymour to see how he is on the campaign trail – interestingly, there’s no sense in the piece that Seymour is going out of his way to be nice to voters, rather he just goes out there and presents himself authentically. Ironically, the success of Act could come at a cost – when small parties rapidly expand their number of MPs, sometimes those new MPs turn out to be excellent parliamentarians, and at other times, well, they’re just not.

If you want more on the state of the campaign, I’d highly encourage you to download Gone By Lunchtime and have a listen on your commute. The team has really hit their stride over this campaign, and I think a lot of people will be hoping they don’t just go back to the previously irregular schedule.

Finally, it’s looking pretty unlikely to be an issue now (touch wood) but just in case, here’s what will happen if there’s a Covid resurgence before the election. Stuff has covered off how election day would be run if we were suddenly plunged back into level two, three or four, with escalating measures at polling places to protect workers and voters. The chief electoral officer also has the power to suspend or adjourn voting in specific areas if need be. In any case, for many it won’t matter – our live updates reported that as of yesterday 1.42 million people had already voted.

Claims are being made that donations from the US anti-vax movement are being made to Advance NZ, via the NZ Public Party component. One News had a report on this last night, which also bounced off an interview co-leader Jami-Lee Ross did with former Trump advisor Steve Bannon. The Public Party account doesn’t have to declare where it gets money from, because it is unregistered – however that also limits the ability for that money to be passed on to Advance NZ. Either way, if such donations are being made (and Ross denies that donations have come from “any American interests”) then it’s something of a dodge around the spirit of electoral donation laws.

Massive plastic bladders are being dumped in landfills with no records or oversight, reports Radio NZ’s Phil Pennington. It’s all single use plastic, and one trucking company alone has dumped the equivalent of 9 million plastic bags in the last year. Incredibly, the plastic used for the bladders (technically called flexitanks) is even recyclable, but it’s just not happening. None of the organisations who monitor waste management and recycling really seemed to be across it either, at the time the story was written.

A person has been referred to police after claiming to have voted multiple times, reports Newshub. There’s little further information, however people should be aware that voting multiple times is illegal. That old saying ‘vote early, vote often’ is meant to be a joke.

An interesting feature on the voting preferences of migrant communities, and how that could end up affecting the election result. Newsroom’s Dileepa Fonseka has looked in particular at the Chinese, Indian and Pacific communities – which, to be clear, there is plenty of diversity of opinion on all manner of subjects within. A particularly interesting section is based on data from pollster Andrew Zhu, who has been surveying the Chinese community, and found support for National is markedly drifting away to Act.

Internal polling from the Greens shows the tide is running slightly against legalisation in advance voting on the cannabis referendum. I report that the polling also shows turnout could be a crucial factor in what the eventual result is, and it’s looking likely to be close. In fact, both the for and against campaigns are talking up turnout as being what could give their side the strongest possible mandate.

A bit of feedback about governments asking tech companies for access to encrypted data: Simon has got in touch to discuss why that’s a dangerous idea, because once access is opened up for governments, it theoretically could be used by any actor (and would be highly coveted by bad actors.) Here’s a few paragraphs of his email:

There is no such thing as secure encryption with a backdoor, even if you make a law that says so, no more than a law can make pi = 3.

Proponents of the mythical secure but with a back door scheme cry that really, technologists are just lazy and that the answer is there waiting to be found, and anyway, they can keep master keys safe so there’s nothing to worry about. But there are any number of reasons to worry. First, this is exactly equivalent to the question “Are you OK with the police having a copy of your house keys so that they can check your house for objectionable material without telling you, whenever they like?”

Secondly even if you are somehow OK with that, there is the question of security. Leaks like Vault-7 (CIA), Edward Snowden (NSA) or the US Office of Personnel Management (database of security cleared US citizens) show that even the mightiest can’t keep their secrets to themselves. A master key to unlock all the world’s secrets would be an irresistible target for criminals and adversary states. The Russians, Chinese or North Koreans would have that key in a week, and it would be sold to criminals an hour later.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Drop us a line at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

Photo: Getty Images, sign wording changed by The Spinoff (original image from Greenpeace’s 2004 GE protest – spot a young Gareth Hughes in the background)

Right now on The Spinoff: We assess the ‘popcorn seats’ – the electorates that will be worth watching on the night. South Auckland nutritionist Mason Ngawhika writes about the real life experiences of those who are obese, in respone to Judith Collins. Stewart Sowman-Lund writes about whether 100% renewable energy is the right goal. Policy.nz’s Chris McIntyre announces the winners in a competition from kids to come up with new policy ideas – the prize for this is that they become associate finance minister after the election. Michael Andrew writes about the political contests and will around regenerative agriculture. James Fuller writes about ACC issuing bills to self-employed people again, and how difficult the system can be to navigate. Josie Adams attended an Auckland Uni youth politician debate that sounds like an absolute horror show. And Sam Brooks collects some of the deep and disgusting stories from the 40-year tenure of the Queen St McDonalds.

For a feature today, an evisceration of the lacklustre strategy from the British government to fight a second wave of Covid-19. The Guardian’s Marina Hyde is always funny, but there’s a savagery in this column that reflects a deep anger at the incompetence on show. Here’s an excerpt:

When I was at school, a man once came to teach us self-defence for a morning, during which he said that you must never take any action halfheartedly, in the hope it might warn your assailant. Do it like you really mean it, because otherwise you just make matters worse for yourself. Back in April, Boris Johnson described coronavirus as “an unexpected mugger” we had to wrestle to the ground. Hand on heart, the mugger is a little more expected the second time around. Yet with this latest set of plans, I can’t help feeling the prime minister is not so much wrestling coronavirus, as warning the virus he will wrestle it if it’s not careful.

His government specialises in measures that become outdated and inadequate about 30 minutes before they’ve even announced them. They are always the Amstrad Emailer of public health responses. Had Johnson been captaining the Titanic, his last words as the icy North Atlantic waters finally closed over his head would have been: “Fine, I give in – close the Irish bar. But leave the Hawaiian lounge open, because that place coins it like a bastard.”

World champions South Africa might be about to pull out of the Rugby Championship. The Sydney Morning Herald reports their departure to Australia has been delayed, and there are major jitters about what that could mean for the value of broadcast deals. The first game they’re currently scheduled for is on November 7, but it’s possible that more tweaks to the schedule will need to be made.

That’s it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme