Strap in, folks.

PoliticsJanuary 16, 2025

Stayin’ alive at the Beehive in 2025: Your handy guide to the year ahead in politics

Politics reporter

Strap in, folks.

A plan about ferries, highly anticipated select committee hearings and a new deputy prime minister are all on the cards for Aotearoa in the 2025 political year. Here’s a rundown of what to expect and when to expect it.

The ‘brace for impact, it’s coming soon’ bits

The political calendar usually kicks off at Rātana Pā near Whanganui with the annual commemoration of the creation of the Rātana church and the birthday of its founder, Tahupōtiki Wiremu Rātana, on January 24. This year, the prime minister is jumping in early with a state of the nation address in Auckland the day prior. Luxon will then head to Rātana, as will MPs from all the parties in parliament except for Act, whose members make a point of not attending the celebrations.

Four days later, on the last Tuesday of January, parliament will resume for the first of the 82 sitting days of this year. With submissions on the Treaty principles bill (which is at select committee stage) and Regulatory Standards Bill (still a discussion document) having recently closed, you can expect these issues to lead early debates in parliament. Meanwhile, the Justice Committee will begin its weeks-long public hearings of submissions on the Treaty principles bill.

The church at Rātana pā, where the political year usually kicks off (Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

Ahead of a prime minister-less Waitangi Day at the Treaty Grounds, the National Iwi Chairs Forum will meet in the far north on February 3 for the first of four annual discussions. The entity, which represents 82 iwi across Aotearoa, usually meets with government officials for this annual hui and the forum already has a clear talking point: its concerns with the Treaty principles bill. It’s unclear who in government will front the hui, as in August last year the Crown (including the prime minister and his ministers) was officially uninvited from future forums.

Luxon still hasn’t confirmed where he’ll be once Waitangi Day swings around on February 6, but Tama Potaka and other ministers will be at the Treaty Grounds to represent the National side. Two to three days of talks between politicians and iwi representatives will preempt the celebrations, and these discussions on the Treaty Grounds are often heated — last year, representatives from the Kiingitanga, the Rātana church and hundreds more attended the early talks, which largely focused on the Treaty principles bill, which was yet to be introduced to parliament.

By the end of February, the Justice Committee will be wrapping up its Treaty principles bill hearings. A report on the bill is due back on May 14, which may recommend changes, after which it will go to a second reading and, as promised by Luxon, will likely be voted down.

Some time in March, our newly minted minister for rail, Winston Peters, is expected to present his alternative plan for the fate of the Interislander ferries to Cabinet before a public announcement is made later. You may remember the ferries taking up a lot of headlines last year – some worked, many didn’t – after finance minister Nicola Willis’s December 2023 cancellation of Labour’s $3bn project to procure two massive rail-enabled ferries. Peters’ plan may include a $900m spend on smaller Interislander ferries which may be rail-enabled.

And then, the main event for the first half of the year: New Zealand gets a new deputy prime minister on May 31. David Seymour will take over the reins from Winston Peters in a historic changing of the guard in parliament, for that coveted seat next to Luxon in the debating chamber.

From left: the current deputy prime minister, the prime minister and the deputy prime minister in waiting.

The ‘we’ll get around to this one later’ bits

In May or June, finance minister Nicola Willis will unveil Budget 2025, which will be informed by goals to build a stronger economy, deliver effective services and “get the government’s books back in order and restore discipline to public spending”, according to the Treasury’s Budget Policy Statement. If this all sounds familiar, it’s because those were the same goals used to create Budget 2024, and it means it’s going to be another very tight budget: most of the government’s slim $2.4bn operating allowance has already been allocated.

Following the announcement of Budget 2025, parliament will have its first scrutiny week of the year from June 16-19, before the second and final scrutiny week from December 1-5. The June dates will see select committees examine spending in the budget, while the latter scrutiny week will be dedicated to reviewing how public entities have spent their money.

On September 4, Te Arikinui Kuini Nga wai hono i te po will celebrate her first koroneihana at Tūrangawaewae Marae. The week-long celebrations will be the first since the death of her father Kiingi Tūheitia, and will see Nga wai hono i te po make her first major speech as Māori queen.

But before then, local government issues will be at the forefront as New Zealand prepares for its local body elections, held every three years. These elections will decide whether the likes of Wayne Brown and Tory Whanau will continue their mayoral runs, and who does and doesn’t make it onto city, district and regional councils, as well as community boards and local boards. Postal voting will open on September 9 and close on October 11.

A street scene at dusk with a lit-up historic building and the text: "Every vote helps shape our future. Make sure you have your say. Next local elections October 2025. — Part of the campaign to increase voter turnout at this year’s local elections (Image: votelocal.co.nz)

At the same time, 42 authorities will be holding a referendum on Māori wards, thanks to a coalition agreement to reinstate a policy scrapped four years ago by Labour that requires citizen-initiated referendums in order to establish Māori wards. Councils that instated Māori wards without a referendum will now ask residents whether they want to retain these wards, designed to ensure Māori are represented in local government. So far, only two councils have voted to abolish planned or existing Māori wards: Kaipara District Council and Upper Hutt City Council.

Some time in October (presumably after the local elections), Luxon will meet with India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi. This meeting will likely see Luxon aim to progress a free-trade deal with India, the world’s fastest-growing economy. During the election campaign, he promised to secure such a deal during his first term.

The ‘we have to talk about this eventually’ bits

At some point, the government is expected to deliver a new plan for a new Dunedin hospital. After teasing a scaling down of the hospital project in September following a budget blowout, health minister Shane Reti and infrastructure minister Chris Bishop said a decision would be made “in a matter of weeks”. It’s now been a matter of months, and despite the government receiving advice from Te Whatu Ora Health New Zealand in December, multiple Official Information Act requests from the Otago Daily Times have been declined or delayed.

After years of being talked about, the Smokefree 2025 version of New Zealand will arrive – or will it? As laid out in the annual New Zealand Health Survey, released in November, smoking and vaping rates in 2024 failed to decrease from the year prior, and RNZ reports 80,000 more people will need to give up the smoke this year to reach the goal of fewer than 5% of New Zealanders smoking by the end of 2025. Expect associate health minister Casey Costello to make some sort of announcement, perhaps informed by independent advice.

a letterbox with a sign saying "they save we pay no cuts to dunedin hospital" — A decision on the new Dunedin hospital was meant to come ‘in a matter of weeks’ last September (Photo: Shanti Mathias)

A few bills are still waiting in the wings for their first reading, including Green MP Kahurangi Carter’s member’s bill Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill, which would allow comedians to use copyrighted material to poke a bit of fun. Other bills are still at select committee stage, like the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill, which would allow Aotearoa’s news media entities to make commercial agreements with digital platform providers such as Google and Meta, and Act’s Karen Chhour’s Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Amendment Bill, which would establish a declaration for “serious” young offenders and a military-style academy order in the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989.

Currently at its second reading is Chhour’s Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill, which will remove the Treaty of Waitangi obligations of the entity’s chief executive and the wider Oranga Tamariki group. Due for its final reading is NZ First minister Shane Jones’ Crown Minerals Amendment Bill, which seeks to remove the ban on oil and gas exploration in Aotearoa.

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Lyric Waiwiri-Smith
— Politics reporter

Keep going!

A person speaks into a megaphone during a protest, holding a sign that reads "Māori wards matter!!" The image is overlaid with red and yellow graphic elements.

Design: Liam Rātana

PoliticsJanuary 15, 2025

The fate of Māori seats on councils lies with those who vote

Liam Rātana

Ātea editor

Design: Liam Rātana

Analysis

With dozens of Māori seats up for referendum, this year’s local elections will reveal where Aotearoa truly stands on representation.

Last year, the government introduced legislation requiring all local authorities that had established Māori wards and constituencies to hold a referendum on these seats during this year’s local government elections. The policy, which faced strong opposition from councils and Māori communities, has resulted in a total of 42 authorities set to hold a referendum on Māori wards in October.

The cost of these referendums is estimated to exceed $2 million, with the Greater Wellington Regional Council alone projecting costs of $350,000. This financial burden, coupled with the likelihood of anti-Māori representation outcomes, has fuelled frustration among advocates of Māori representation.

The move reverses a Labour government policy that had removed citizen-initiated binding referendums on Māori wards. Critics see this shift as a blow to Māori wards, given the anticipated majority opposition in October’s votes. The challenge for them now lies in mobilising enough public support to retain these wards through the ballot box in local elections with notoriously low voter turnout.

In a December High Court ruling, Te Rūnanga o Ngāti Whātua’s appeal against Kaipara District Council’s decision to abolish its Māori ward was dismissed. Among New Zealand’s 78 councils, only Kaipara District Council and Upper Hutt City Council opted to disestablish Māori wards. Councils that established wards through votes were not required to hold referendums, and others, like the Far North District Council, continue to explore the ramifications of avoiding a public vote.

Six months ago, I wrote about the evolution of Māori activism, emphasising the need for collective efforts beyond hīkoi and grassroots protests. Late last year, one of the largest ever hīkoi to parliament took place, opposing perceived anti-Māori policies. The movement led to a record number of submissions on the Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill – which is apparently “dead in the water” – and a surge in Māori voter registrations. Over 3,000 people enrolled on the Māori electoral roll during the hīkoi, driven by calls from prominent Māori leaders.

Stats NZ data from June 2023 compiled by the Local Government Commission indicates that if all eligible Māori voters registered on the Māori roll, and all local authorities had Māori wards, there could be 113 Māori seats across local authorities, which would make up approximately 13% of all council seats. With the growth in the Māori electoral population in the year and a half since, that number is now likely to be even higher. However, civic engagement remains a challenge. Despite growing awareness, voter turnout at local elections has steadily declined in recent years.

In the last general election, total voter turnout was 78.2%, down from 82.2% in 2020. Turnout for Māori voters on both the general and Māori rolls was 70.3%, slightly lower than the 72.9% in 2020. Yet, young Māori voters defied the trend. Turnout among 18 to 24-year-old Māori rose to 70.3%, marking a significant increase over previous years.

‘He mea tautoko nā ngā mema atawhai. Supported by our generous members.’

Liam Rātana
— Ātea editor

In 2023, parliament published an inquiry into the 2022 Local Elections, with low voter turnout being a primary focus. A statistical analysis conducted by Auckland Council found that those who identified as being of Māori descent when enrolling were less likely to vote than those of non-Māori descent, with 25% of Māori likely to vote vs 39% of non-Māori. In 1989, there was an average turnout of 60% across all local authorities. By 2022, that average had decreased to 42%. The inquiry made a number of recommendations to improve a range of areas like resources, processes and even trials for online and electronic voting. The aim was to implement key changes before this year’s local elections.

The referendums on Māori seats are about more than local governance; their outcomes will shape the trajectory of representation and inclusivity in New Zealand for years to come. They serve as a barometer for the country’s evolving views on equity and partnership under Te Tiriti o Waitangi. A vote to remove the wards would signal a retreat from efforts to uplift underrepresented voices, while a result that keeps them could bolster momentum for broader structural change. As voters cast their ballots, the implications of their decisions will ripple beyond local councils, influencing debates on national identity and governance in ways that will be felt for generations.

This is Public Interest Journalism funded by NZ On Air.