Compared to previous years, our pundits’ political predictions for 2022 were actually pretty accurate… but still mostly wrong.
In 2020, The Spinoff’s then-Bulletin editor Alex Braae declared that “nobody comes out looking good” from annual political predictions. That year featured outlandish premonitions about Judith Collins defecting to Act and Chlöe Swarbrick lighting up a joint in the debating chamber. In short, they were all very bad and it’s astonishing we even continued the tradition of annual political predictions at all. Yet here we are, in the closing days of what has been a fascinating, turbulent and frequently bizarre year in politics.
As our team of esteemed political minds readies to present their predictions for next year (stay tuned to The Spinoff for that next week), it’s time to take a walk down memory lane. This time we last year we asked an array of pundits for their wildest political predictions for 2022. Let’s see how they did.
“I don’t know if this is wild, but I hope 2022 is filled with decarceration.” (Gabrielle Baker)
Verdict: Not wrong, but not right either. In September there were 7,964 prisoners in New Zealand, compared with 8,034 in the same month of 2021, representing only a very small amount of decarceration.
“We’re all going to know and care way too much about the functions of the Reserve Bank by the end of it.” (Alex Braae)
Verdict: Right! Adrian Orr has gone from being known exclusively by bankers and political geeks to a name casually thrown into conversation at dinner parties. Not good!
“Facebook will buy The Spinoff.” (Linda Clark)
Verdict: Feasible, but wrong. Although there was progress on getting social media giants like Facebook to pay outlets like The Spinoff for their content.
“In an act of intergenerational solidarity, all of our MPs agree to sell all their housing investment portfolios and place the proceeds into ethical and sustainable investment funds.” (Andrew Geddis)
Verdict: Extremely wrong. Politicians still really like to own houses.
“There will be an awkward video of Chris Luxon dancing. This seems to be a marker of successful right-wing politics in New Zealand. A two-second version will be unnecessarily played in assorted news stories from then on.” (Lara Greaves)
Verdict: Shockingly, somehow… wrong? This definitely seems like something that would have happened, but I can’t find any evidence of it. It’s entirely possible that Luxon, in an effort to avoid having a two-second clip played forever on the news, managed to have it wiped from the archives. Or maybe he has somehow remembered that the first rule of being in public office is to never dance in public. There’s always next year.
“Brian Tamaki, Don Brash and Leo Molloy will regroup Vision NZ to make a big play for the 2023 election, running on a confusing platform of neoliberalism and Christian conservatism. When they lose they will blame the gays.” (Leonie Hayden)
Verdict: Wrong, but not that wrong. While Tamaki, Brash and Molloy have not formed some new Vision NZ supergroup, there is indeed a conservative “umbrella” party contesting next year’s general election – and it does include Vision NZ. Freedoms NZ also brings together the New National Party and the Sue Grey-led Outdoors Party. It’s not yet known whether they will lose or who they will blame.
“House prices will decrease, wages will increase and 20-somethings will finally be able to move out of their childhood bedrooms. Also Donald Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize and Judith Collins and Simon Bridges will become best friends, hosting a podcast about things like gardening and the traditional craftsmanship of skilled cheese artisans.” (Liam Hehir)
Verdict: A mixed bag. House prices have decreased. Wages have increased. Not sure about the 20-somethings. Donald Trump has not won the Nobel Peace Prize. Judith Collins and Simon Bridges are probably not friends, but the latter does have a podcast which may or may not touch on gardening and cheese.
“I don’t know how wild it is, but I’ve finally started reading about web 3.0 and cryptocurrency, after ignoring it for years, and I think that’s going to be even more transformational and disruptive than social media. Maybe ‘22 will be the year that suite of technologies breaks through, possibly in catastrophic ways.” (Danyl Mclauchlan)
Verdict: Wrong – this definitely wasn’t a breakthrough year for crypto, or web 3.0, but arguably it was for AI. Seemed like there was a buzzy new AI thing every week, and at least one of them is bound to end in catastrophe.
“An extraordinary rollercoaster of a byelection.” (Toby Manhire)
Verdict: Right! But probably not in the way anyone was expecting. The Tauranga byelection was fairly orthodox, with low-ish voter turnout and the National candidate Sam Uffindell sweeping to victory. But it’s the aftermath of this byelection that proved to be a rollercoaster, with Uffindell temporarily stood down from National as bullying and harassment claims were investigated.
The recent Hamilton West byelection was also a rollercoaster – though this time the events precipitating it were wilder still, with Gaurav Sharma levelling allegations of bullying within the Labour Party caucus via a Herald opinion piece. He was later expelled from the party, and formed the likely-to-never-be-heard-of-again Momentum Party.
“I might be a dreamer – but 2022 might be better than 2021 or 2020.” (Craig Renney)
Verdict: Hmm. I’m going to give this one to Craig – after the steaming shit heaps that were 2020 and 2021, this year kind of felt all right. And yet somehow still truly awful.
“We get a whole new system based on Matike Mai and Land Back.” (Brooke Stanley Pao)
Verdict: Wrong. New Zealand’s constitutional system is very much the same – and the government has confirmed it’s stalling any work on co-governance, at least for now.
“Nicola Willis will be the leader of the opposition – she’s the best media and political operative National has by a country mile.” (Shane Te Pou)
Verdict: Wrong, though there are still a few days of this year to go. And if Nicola Willis isn’t the leader of National by the end of 2022, you can bet that this prediction will crop up again on our list for 2023.
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