A win isn’t always the best result, explains Dan Brunskill.

The National Party had an awkward problem in 2023: it won too many electorates. A blue wave swept the country on election night. It took a record 43 electorates including Labour strongholds such as New Lynn, which had never elected a Nat until that night.

It was too much of a good thing. All except one of the National candidates ranked 53-70 (all men) made it into parliament as electorate MPs. These surprise wins ate up party list spots, where Christopher Luxon and National leadership had placed more diverse talent. Unlucky list candidates 25-29 included former Pasifika MP Agnes Loheni, National Party prodigies Emma Chatterton and James Christmas, and Māori businessman Dale Stephens.

In the end, just five MPs came in on the list, one-third of the usual number. The only other time National secured so few list spots was after its disastrous election loss in 2002. What these years had in common were strong results for minor parties. NZ First and Act together won 15% of all votes in 2023, 19 seats in parliament, but only two electorates.

That trend looks set to worsen. National has lost almost 10 percentage points of support since election night, while the broader coalition has lost just four points — thanks to NZ First almost doubling in the polls. This rise may not result in electorate wins. The party has not won a local race since Winston Peters took Northland in a 2015 by-election. Shane Jones tried to reclaim the seat in 2023, but finished third. It is probably NZ First’s only realistic target in 2026.

Minor parties provide major headache

Current polling has NZ First and Act on track for about 25 seats between them, but three or fewer electorate wins. That would leave National with even fewer list places, potentially pushing more of its list MPs out of parliament. Labour would relieve some of the pressure on National list MPs by winning back electorates like Mount Roskill, but with the blue team on track to lose 11 seats or more, it may not be enough.

The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire estimated the results of a poll in March could result in National getting just one list spot in 2026. On his numbers, the party would likely lose 13 seats in parliament but only cede about nine electorates.

This would see list MPs such as speaker Gerry Brownlee and justice minister Paul Goldsmith seeking opportunities in the private sector. Even housing and infrastructure minister Chris Bishop couldn’t rely on his third place list spot to save him if he loses his historically Labour-leaning Hutt South electorate. Only Nicola Willis, ranked second, would be returned to office without winning an electorate on Manhire’s numbers.

This is of course only a rough estimate, as electorate results don’t move exactly proportionally to party vote, but it demonstrates what is at stake.

National’s list candidates know this and are scrambling to secure electorates. Emma Chatterton, who missed out in 2023, won the nomination for Papakura, upsetting list MP Nancy Lu for the ultra-safe blue seat. James Christmas has left National to run for Act in Tāmaki, likely with a comfortable list spot as insurance. Agnes Loheni will contest the revived Waitākere electorate, which is expected to be competitive but was last held by National’s Paula Bennett in 2011.

The party leadership also appears to have made a greater effort to get its diverse talent into electorate seats rather than relying on the list. It has put forward a number of Indian and Pasifika candidates in competitive races, for example.

Another solution: lose more races

National Party supporters who want to make sure senior figures like Willis, Bishop, Brownlee and Goldsmith are returned to parliament – alongside any newly recruited talent – should consider voting strategically. In New Zealand’s electoral system, the party vote matters most. It decides how many seats each party gets in parliament. The electorate vote decides who gets to sit in those seats: a local MP or somebody from the list.

It may be better for any National Party supporters who don’t feel strongly about their local candidate to deliberately vote against them, thus leaving more room for list MPs on the government benches. When Brooke van Velden won the Tāmaki electorate last election, there was a feeling that some in the National Party were OK with the outcome. The incumbent MP, Simon O’Connor, wasn’t very popular and list seats were in short supply.

His loss indirectly opened up a seat for Nancy Lu, who is able to connect directly with Mandarin-speaking voters and supported the prime minister on his trade mission to China.

While they cannot admit it, National’s leadership may not mind losing backbenchers from electorates like Northland, Hamilton East, Wairarapa and Banks Peninsula as long as it doesn’t cost too many party votes. On the latest polling, the coalition government is likely to be reelected but with a significantly weakened National Party at its centre. It will need to dig deep into its caucus to fill cabinet posts and other key roles.

Losing a few local races may make that task easier.