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An evacuee on the Greek island of Evia, which is currently on fire in an event made worse by climate change (Getty Images)
An evacuee on the Greek island of Evia, which is currently on fire in an event made worse by climate change (Getty Images)

The BulletinAugust 10, 2021

The Bulletin: The devastating new climate report

An evacuee on the Greek island of Evia, which is currently on fire in an event made worse by climate change (Getty Images)
An evacuee on the Greek island of Evia, which is currently on fire in an event made worse by climate change (Getty Images)

Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Devastating new climate report released, lights go out overnight amid surging electricity demand, and Tauranga port workers nervous about Covid scare.

A new climate report has delivered confirmation that we are heading for a much warmer world, with the consequences of that ever-clearer all the time. The latest IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report shows that some level of warming and climate disruption is now totally unavoidable, and humans will be living with the effects of that for centuries. For The Spinoff, science journalist Veronika Meduna reports that the cause of that climate change is now certain and unequivocal – human activity. An example of the sort of work that went into it has been outlined in this piece on The Conversation by Victoria University’s professor Nick Golledge, who studies oceans and ice, which is melting.

The effects include the recent spate of extreme weather, which is projected to get worse. To quote from Meduna’s piece:

 A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and can dump it in extreme rainfalls in one place, while elsewhere the warmer air sucks more water from the land, leaving already dry areas even more parched. At the outer end of both these processes are extreme floods, heatwaves and droughts.

But look, you know all this stuff already. If you’ve read any reputable news publication for any length of time, the certainty of climate change will not be in any doubt. Nor will the feeling of anxiety and fear that comes with that be unfamiliar. The science on this has been clear for decades, despite the protestations of denial from well-paid liars and those they’ve deceived.

The report was described as “comprehensive and frank”– though it was tempered with optimism, in outlining scenarios in which the most catastrophic warming might be avoided. In comments collected by the Science Media Centre, Waikato professor Iain White said “we need to change how we live, how we move, and the structure of our economy.” This obviously needs to happen everywhere, but because this is a New Zealand publication we’ll keep the focus local. Professor White pointed to the upcoming Emissions Reduction Plan from the government, and warned against “the trap of techno-optimism”, by which some amazing new discovery might magically save us from ourselves. White added this point, which should drive it home:

“Science has done its job. It did it decades ago, frankly. Now it’s time for politics and related professions to do their job. Only now they have less time than previous generations of politicians and the implications are ever more certain.”

In response to the report, climate change minister James Shaw said the government would be “equal to the latest climate science”. “We must use this chance to review progress and make sure the actions we are committing to will cut emissions in line with what the latest science requires. Anything less will not be enough,” said Shaw. If he and other politicians around the world cannot find a way for those cuts to happen, and curb the power of the industries and systems that cause them, countless people will die.


It was extremely cold last night, and demand for power appears to have overwhelmed supply. Stuff reports tens of thousands of houses were affected by cuts as a result. Nothing like this has happened in a decade. Because this all happened 12 hours ago, there’s no rush to have a scorching hot take about what it means for the electricity generation system, but rest assured analysis on this will be coming.


Mariners on a cargo ship off the coast of Tauranga have tested positive, and dozens of port workers who worked the ship are not fully vaccinated. Our live updates reports that comes despite attempts to prioritise port workers for vaccines. It appears those efforts are not going well – the government is blaming “misinformation and hesitancy” for the delay, while the union says it is an example of “bureaucratic incompetence.”


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The plans and discussions of a small but active white supremacist group have been revealed after an undercover investigation. Critic Te Arohi journalist Elliot Weir infiltrated the group Action Zealandia, who have attempted to recruit members and push a fascist ideology at home, and are currently in the process of establishing contacts with violent neo-Nazi groups around the world. AZ members also discussed trying to do entryism with established political parties, to bring them towards white supremacy. Weir also posted a condensed version of his investigation outlining his process and the key findings.


The Helen Clark Foundation has released a new report highlighting the potential “brain gain” of NZers returning home due to the pandemic. Writing for The Spinoff, Laura Walters reports it comes alongside the remaining diaspora overseas feeling increasingly shut out of the country. The number of people coming home hasn’t necessarily increased, but net inward migration has been much higher over the past year in large part because fewer people are leaving.


A counterview on the timber shortage, and particularly the question of an export ban: I got this feedback from Rob, who has knowledge of the industry, and thought it would be worth publishing as a wider view of the issue:

The suggestion that’s been floating around that the government should limit the export of building products from New Zealand to alleviate the situation is at best naive, and disingenuous in the case of some interest groups.

The New Zealand log harvest is currently 2.5 times what the New Zealand forest products processing industry has installed capacity to deal with. Sawmillers in New Zealand are working at capacity to try and meet market demand , particularly for framing lumber where domestic demand has been exceeding supply recently. New building consents are at record highs. To my knowledge, most framing lumber produced in New Zealand is sold in New Zealand because that is the best makes for these sawmills, always has been.

There is a different debate that has been going on for a very long time and that is the export of logs from New Zealand Just like grades of beef there are grades of logs. For the most part sawmills can get the logs that they want provided they are prepared to pay a market price for those logs. The export market price, worked back to take account of transport, shipping, and port costs, has a significant influence on the domestic log price. Provided they pay their bills and engage in long term relationships, with give and take on both sides around what is market price, most mills would privately tell you they can secure the logs they need. 


We’re hiring a membership and marketing coordinator: The Spinoff is recruiting a coordinator to assist with the delivery of marketing campaigns and to support our successful membership programme. If that sounds like a bit of you, have a look at the job ad here, and put a bid in by August 18.


Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

With thousands of Covid-19 cases in Sydney it’s likely that the city won’t again eliminate the virus, experts warn. (Image: Tina Tiller)

Right now on The Spinoff: Justin Giovannetti writes about what went wrong in New South Wales with their Covid outbreak, and what the next period looks like. Duncan Greive analyses the implications of Stuff acquiring small media startup Ensemble. Josie Adams looks at some serious and possibly slightly less serious alternatives to timber in housing. Pati Hakaria writes about some of the best te reo picture books of the year. Liam Rātana, in partnership with Kiwibank, speaks to Miriama Kamo about what makes a great New Zealander. And rugby player Alice Soper reviews Head High, a returning show about school rugby and the pressures put on young men.


For a feature today, two pieces about the vulnerability of systems for processing plastic and other rubbish. The first comes from The Nation, and looks at how dangerous rising seas are to coastal landfills in the US. We’ve seen similar examples of this in New Zealand, where flooding has ripped open old dumps. The second one comes from the NZ Herald’s (paywalled) Jamie Morton, who has looked at where New Zealand’s used plastic gets exported to. Here’s an excerpt:

Greenpeace Aotearoa plastics campaigner Juressa Lee said it was especially concerning that much of this waste was still being dumped on countries like Thailand and Malaysia.

“A Greenpeace investigation a few years back showed that significant amounts of that ‘recycled’ plastic was being dumped, buried or burned at illegal sites in Malaysia with little concern for the health impacts on the surrounding communities.”

Emeritus Professor Ralph Cooney, of the University of Auckland, said Indonesia was able to reduce, reuse and recycle just 15 per cent of its waste, while 35 per cent was being dumped in landfills or incinerated.


In sport, a tragic loss of life: Cyclist Olivia Podmore, who rode for New Zealand at the Rio Olympics, has died at the age of 24. The coroner has yet to release findings on the cause of death, but as Stuff reports, it was sudden, followed a concerning Instagram post from Podmore, and the article included tags for where to get mental health support and help. Podmore’s family are in mourning, and people in the cycling community have expressed their devastation at the loss.


That’s it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme

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Re-elected party president Peter Goodfellow and National leader Judith Collins (Getty Images)
Re-elected party president Peter Goodfellow and National leader Judith Collins (Getty Images)

The BulletinAugust 9, 2021

The Bulletin: National’s divisions revealed at conference

Re-elected party president Peter Goodfellow and National leader Judith Collins (Getty Images)
Re-elected party president Peter Goodfellow and National leader Judith Collins (Getty Images)

Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: National’s divisions revealed at conference, Dr Bloomfield under pressure over UN worker statements, and timber shortage putting strain on building projects.

National has emerged from their conference to a brutal set of headlines, from which any reasonable observer would conclude the party’s divisions have not healed. By my count, three entirely distinct incidents occurred from which you could make that case, and I’ll outline them all here before covering what party leader Judith Collins had to say.

The first concerns former leader Todd Muller. One News reports he will not be part of caucus meetings when he returns from leave, which he is currently on to care for his sick wife. It’s unclear whether that was a decision made by Muller, or made by Collins on Muller’s behalf – Stuff’s Henry Cooke reports a comment from party whip Matt Doocey that made it sound like it had been Muller’s own decision. Either way, it is a reminder of the circumstances that led to Muller announcing his resignation at the next election, which is that he had been briefing against a colleague.

The second concerns the Young Nats, who have reacted with anger to the caucus to decision to vote against the conversion therapy ban in parliament. The NZ Herald’s Thomas Coughlan reports they distributed rainbow ribbons to the MPs, and it is understood that the speech was used “to highlight the youth wing’s disappointment.” Some MPs are believed to have been against that caucus decision, and party policy generally is in favour of a conversion therapy ban.

Finally, the party president was reelected, but in the process a former speaker and stalwart MP made a dramatic resignation. Sir David Carter was challenging Peter Goodfellow for the presidency, with some in the party seeing Goodfellow as being heavily involved in a series of disastrous candidate selections. However, when Goodfellow won, Sir David resigned from the board, and Radio NZ’s Jane Patterson reports he went out saying he had “no confidence” in Goodfellow. Politik’s (paywalled) Richard Harman notes the party now has no farmers on the board, and it is understood farmers are now feeling unrepresented in the party hierarchy – a real danger for National when Act are surging in the rural world.

As for where the party sits relative to the rest of the political landscape, little movement was made. Toby Manhire was sitting in on Collins’ speech, and noted the party campaign of “Demand the Debate” has yielded precious little in terms of new policy, none of which was launched at the conference.

So what did Collins have to say? As Stuff reports, she told members the next election is winnable for National so long as the party stays focused. Collins heavily criticised the performance of the government, saying in particular they had failed on housing, child poverty and mental health services. Speaking again as a hopefully reasonable observer, she’s got a fair point – the government has objectively made little progress in any of these areas over four years. But that message may not get through with Collins in charge – a Newshub poll released last night showed almost half of National voters believe she should be replaced as leader.

Meanwhile the Green Party conference has also taken place in the shadow of National’s event. Political editor Justin Giovannetti reports Co-leader James Shaw easily saw off a rare challenge from member James Cockle, with Shaw then using his speech to talk up his view that the party had made more gains by being in a cooperation agreement with Labour, rather than in opposition. There’s no doubt some members will disagree with that sentiment, and dissent from it – even if the conference being largely closed to the media makes that difficult to verify. But that’s a world of difference away from what the other party having a conference last weekend went through.


Dr Ashley Bloomfield has had to correct the record over conversations he had regarding the evacuation of a Covid-positive UN worker from Fiji. Stuff reports Dr Bloomfield’s comments were corrected on the basis that he had “since recalled” what actually happened, despite all of this happening in the last few weeks. National’s Chris Bishop wants Dr Bloomfield to front up over it in front of the select committee, in particular regarding the degree of involvement former PM Helen Clark had in it all, reports the NZ Herald.


The timber shortage is causing prices to rise, and for construction jobs to get bogged down in delays. spoke to two businesses that rely on timber for their work, and they’re desperately worried about the effect it is having now, and could go on to have with the ongoing housing crisis. In related news, Stuff reports building minister Poto Williams has denied the government is looking at imposing limits on timber exports.


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Shareholders have voted to close down fuel refining operations at Marsden Point, and convert it over to an import-only terminal. Radio NZ reports the decision was near-unanimous, with hundreds of jobs likely to be lost. Both MBIE and Refining NZ Chief executive Naomi James said the decision was unlikely to make New Zealand any more vulnerable to fuel insecurity – though other analysts have strongly disagreed with this sentiment.


Travel around the country could be difficult today, particularly in the South Island. Radio NZ reports heavy snow has blanketed much of the island, closing some roads and making others slow going. If you do have to be on the road today, it’s always a good idea to check the NZTA Journeys site for disruptions first.


A correction: Google co-founder Larry Page holds New Zealand residency, not permanent residency as was stated in Friday’s Bulletin. Apologies for the error – it matters to the wider story. Stuff reports Page was granted residency under the Investor Visa category, which requires holders to invest at least $10 million in NZ over a period of three years. Page has a net worth somewhere in the realm above $100bn.


Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

John Walker at the 1976 Montreal Olympics (Photo by Tony Duffy/Getty Images)

Right now on The Spinoff: Aditya Vasudevan, a New Zealander in Sydney, writes about whether you can ever really capture the feeling of going home again. Olivia Sisson pays a visit to a grower of saffron, the world’s most expensive spice, in Canterbury. Michael Andrew writes about how Wynyard Quarter has developed a decade after opening. Sharon Lam reflects on the classic Kiwi tradition of Athletics Day and how much she hated it. Madeleine Chapman looks back at the Olympics shunned by dozens of African countries because New Zealand wanted to keep playing rugby against apartheid South Africa. And Stewart Sowman-Lund delves into the pop-star specific club nights currently taking over music venues, in the era of closed borders.


For a feature today, a bleak and heartbreaking story about a father slipping away from reality and into conspiracy theories. Vice News has interviewed a survivor of a major school shooting event in the US, which became a totem pole for the gun control movement. But for one student at Parkland, their father is now convinced that the whole event was a lie, with tragic consequences for the family. Here’s an excerpt:

But until January, that was as far as it went. Then Bill’s father saw a video of Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene harassing Parkland survivor David Hogg in 2018, while he was visiting Washington to advocate for stricter gun control. Greene has repeatedly voiced support for QAnon and claimed the Parkland shooting was a hoax. “He is a coward,” Greene told her followers.

Ever since then, Bill’s father has become convinced the shooting his son survived was a so-called “false flag” event and that the shooter was “​​a radical commie actor.”

“From there it snowballed into what he is today, believing that if the government is able to overthrow an election, then everything else is probably a lie too,” Bill added.


Triumph for the Northern Mystics, who have won their first ever ANZ Premiership title. The NZ Herald reports they saw off the Mainland Tactix by just two goals on Sunday night – a fitting end after a closely fought competition. MVP for the match was midcourter Elisapeta Toeava, who played well all season. Both teams are expected to have very competitive rosters again next time around, so for the Tactix there might be another title shot soon.


That’s it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme.